Monitoring Regime Confirms Iran’s Compliance

Iran still compliant with nuclear deal - The IAEA reports that Iran continues to meet its obligations as laid out in the July deal to dismantle its nuclear weapons program. Cataloguing developments since Implementation Day on January 16, the IAEA confirms that “Iran has not pursued the construction of the existing Arak heavy water research reactor.” Furthermore, Iran “has not carried out activities related to reprocessing at the Tehran Research Reactor.”

--According to the report, Iran has cooperated with IAEA inspectors. “Iran has continued to permit the Agency to use on-line enrichment monitors and electronic seals which communicate their status within nuclear sites to Agency inspectors… Iran has issued long-term visas to Agency inspectors designated for Iran as requested and provided proper working space for the Agency at nuclear sites and facilitated the use of working space at locations near nuclear sites in Iran.” Read the report here. http://bit.ly/1TOxZZB

See also - “UN agency report shows Iran mostly complying with nuke deal, by George Jahn for the AP. http://wapo.st/1VOBKfE

Hopeful signs from Iran elections - “Despite thousands of candidate disqualifications, tens of millions of Iranians flocked to the polls to vote in their 2016 elections. Turnout has surpassed 60 percent. Victory by candidates aligned with President Hassan Rouhani already exceeds expectations. Thus far, there have been no allegations of cheating. This begs the question: What just happened?” writes Reza Marashi for Huffington Post.

--“Iran's large youth population means there were millions of eligible first-time voters, and many young Iranians vote in order to avoid being turned down for employment or other government-related benefits... But perhaps above all else, these elections reflect Iranian society's continued desire to bring about change through gradual evolution rather than radical upheaval. They are demanding pragmatic and democratic reform within the existing system.” Find the full piece here. http://huff.to/1ncsmGA

Better, not bigger - The editorial board the The New York Times has issued a call for a “better, not bigger” military, and reducing military spending. “One place to save,” they write, “Scale back the planned $1 trillion, 30-year modernization of a nuclear arsenal that will never be used and spend the money on conventional weapons that are needed to fight the Islamic State and other threats. Hillary Clinton and Senator Bernie Sanders, unlike the Republican candidates, have said they are open to this.”

--Republican candidates have lead the public astray by claiming US armed forces are “hollowed out.” Marco Rubio has promised to “‘restore military strength’ by building more ships and submarines, reversing troop cuts and expanding missile defenses.” Donald Trump has said that he “will make our military so big, powerful and strong that no one will mess with us.” This is an illusion. America’s military “is the world’s most advanced fighting force, with a larger budget than the next seven countries combined.” Full piece here. http://nyti.ms/1OHkeEd

Fear of Russia overblown - “In one of the key justifications for the new $600 billion defense spending request, the Department of Defense has fallen back on a tried-and-true Cold War boogeyman: the threat of Russian aggression against allies in Europe. While there is no ignoring the Russian annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the Russo-Georgian war in 2008, to interpret these events as some kind of Russian ‘resurgence’ is to grossly inflate the danger Russia poses to NATO and the United States,” argue Lawrence Korb and Eric Goepe in Defense One.

--“President Barack Obama wants to quadruple the budget for the European Reassurance Initiative... Obama just asked Congress to fund the biggest military buildup by NATO in Eastern Europe since the Cold War... A NATO buildup of this magnitude also neglects to take into account just how provocative such a move would be; by concentrating troops on Russia’s border, we are playing into Putin’s long-standing criticisms of NATO encirclement.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1oTH5YW

Tweet - @Cirincione: This is so stupid, so Cold War. Seriously, is @POTUS paying attention to what his military is doing? http://reut.rs/1KOXx6u

Who needs a time machine? - “Although the number of nuclear weapons is down from its Cold War peak, Russian and U.S. nuclear forces and postures still allow each country to launch more than 1,000 nuclear bombs within minutes if attacked. Each side depends on the restraint and good judgment of the other to avoid mutual annihilation. Distrust is deep, and the list of grievances is growing [and] progress on further nuclear cuts is on hold,” writes Daryl Kimball for Arms Control Today.

--Kimball believes that Obama and Putin “Should issue a joint statement reaffirming their understanding that there can be no winners in a nuclear war and that as long as each side has nuclear weapons, strategic stability will remain central to their bilateral relations. They should immediately resume active discussions on new, creative proposals to reduce the size and enormous cost of their excess strategic and tactical nuclear stockpiles and to resolve disagreements about missile defenses and INF Treaty compliance.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1QpkIRA

Rethinking nuclear deterrence - “If we have $200 billion to spend annually on weapons... and spend $30 billion on nuclear forces when $10 billion can buy effective deterrence, we will waste $20 billion annually that could go to other vital defense missions such as fighting ISIS, strengthening our conventional defenses and those of our allies, improved training, cyber-security, and research. [The result is] poor national strategy and less security for America,” writes James Doyle for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. Full article here. http://bit.ly/1L262Lw

Tweet - @KingstonAReif: New from Hans Kristensen: "New B-21 Bomber or B-2 Mod 1?" http://fas.org/blogs/security/2016/03/b-21/

Tough sanctions coming for North Korea - “The United States and China have agreed on a draft resolution that would expand UN security council sanctions against North Korea over its latest nuclear test and hope to put it to a vote in the coming days, council diplomats said on Wednesday. Two envoys said Beijing and Washington reached a deal on the draft, which could go to the full 15-member council soon. The two veto powers had been negotiating on a draft resolution for the past seven weeks following Pyongyang’s fourth nuclear test on 6 January.” reports Reuters. Full article here. http://bit.ly/21hYOKl

The Grants behind the Iran Deal - “This summer, we faced one of our biggest challenges yet: protecting the Iran nuclear accord from the most intense campaign ever waged against a national security agreement… If Congress killed the deal, the entire enterprise would collapse… Addressing this challenge required spending a significant amount of money in an incredibly short time. We had three months to convince policymakers and the public to back diplomacy over war,” writes Michelle Dover for the Huffington Post.

--“Philanthropy is changing. Foundations are not only exploring how advancements in technology can tackle the world's most severe problems, but they are considering how they can collaborate with other foundations and NGOs to increase the impact of their work. Our story demonstrates how such creative thinking can succeed, in this case helping to secure the biggest foreign policy victory of the decade.” Full story here. http://huff.to/1XPbzGT

Blast from the past - “Thousands of protesters have assembled in central London for Britain’s biggest anti-nuclear weapons rally in a generation. Campaigners gathered from across the world: some said they had travelled from Australia to protest against the renewal of Trident. Others had come from the west coast of Scotland, where Britain’s nuclear deterrent submarines are based. As the huge column of people began moving from Marble Arch after 1pm, the mood was buoyant and spirited despite the cold,” writes Mark Townsend for The Guardian.

--“The campaigners headed for Trafalgar Square where were addressed by the leaders of the SNP, Plaid Cymru and the Green party. The true draw – cited as an inspiration by many of those assembled – was the leader of the Labour party, Jeremy Corbyn, whose unswerving unilateralist stance has electrified the nuclear deterrent debate in a manner few could have foreseen… As crowds built from midday close to the assembly point at Marble Arch, it quickly became evident that the event would mark the biggest anti-nuclear demonstration since 1983.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1QIMDev

Dear Moniz: End MOX - Thirteen nuclear experts signed a letter to Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz to argue for the closing of the mixed-oxide plutonium fuel fabrication project. “Now that President Obama has made the principled decision to zero out funding for continuing the project, its defenders... are trying to restore construction funding by making arms control arguments. They argue that the 2000 United States-Russia agreement on disposition of surplus weapons plutonium obligates the United States to complete the plant. That is incorrect,” they write.

--“There are major arms control, nonproliferation, and nuclear security considerations relating to this project that strongly favor its termination… There are increased political pressures to proceed with plutonium separation in Japan and China, and to gain U.S. consent for reprocessing in South Korea… The same plutonium could be used to produce thousands of warheads. Contrary to the claims of its defenders, the arms-control and nuclear security arguments weigh heavily for ending the MOX project.” Full letter here. http://bit.ly/1TH7KUQ

Quick Hits:

--“Across Britain, Silent Relics of the Cold War,” by David Shaftel for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1ph64Ft

--“McCain Threatens To Block New Air Force Bomber,” by Joe Gould and Lara Seligman for Defense News. http://bit.ly/1SXhsCF

--“On tickling the dragon’s tail,” by Victor Gilinsky for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1RDxJtg

--Obituary: “Michael Brower, 83, longtime professor and peace activist,” by Kathleen McKenna in the Boston Globe. http://bit.ly/1Qq0dYj

--“The Future of U.S.-Russian Arms Control,” by Steven Pifer for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. http://ceip.org/1KYGlvl

--“On Nuclear Weapons, Hill Shows Bipartisan Support,” by Aaron Mehta for the Defense News. http://bit.ly/1oVU4cD

Events:

-- House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, hearing on Fiscal Year 2017 Budget Request for Department of Defense Nuclear Forces, with Robert Scher, Assistant Defense Secretary for Strategy, Plans, and Capabilities; Arthur Hopkins, Acting Defense Secretary for Nuclear, Chemical, and Biological Defense Programs; Gen. Robin Rand, Commander, Air Force Global Strike Command; and Vice Adm. Terry Benedict, Navy Strategic Systems Programs. March 2 at 2:00 p.m. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1QpYQsS

-- “The Korean Peninsula Issues and U.S. National Security,” featuring Daniel Russel, Assistant Secretary of State for East Asian and Pacific Affairs. Sponsored by ICAS Liberty Foundation. March 4 from 1:30 to 4:30 p.m., located at 2237 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1T40UJ6

--“The FY2017 Defense Budget and Strategic Outlook,” featuring Mike McCord, Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller) and Chief Financial Officer; Dr. Jamie Morin Director, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation; and Robert Scher Assistant Secretary of Defense for Strategy, Plans and Capabilities. March 7 from 9:00 to 10:30 a.m. followed by a panel discussion. 2nd Floor Conference Center, Center for Strategic & International Studies 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, D.C. 20036. Register via email. http://bit.ly/24yUsOc

-- Sahar Nowrouzzadeh, National Security Council Director on Iran. March 7 from 7:00 to 8:00 p.m., at George Washington University, Science and Engineering Hall, Lehman Auditorium, 800 22nd St. NW, Washington. Register here. http://bit.ly/1OLKrBK