UN Adopts Harsh North Korea Sanctions

Sweeping sanctions against North Korea - “The U.N. Security Council unanimously adopted harsh sanctions Wednesday against North Korea, imposing some of the strongest measures ever used to pressure Pyongyang to abandon its nuclear weapons program… It mandates cargo inspections for all goods going in and out of North Korea by land, sea or air, chokes off supplies of most aviation fuel for its armed forces, and bans the sale of all small arms and conventional weapons to Pyongyang,” write Carol Morello and Steven Mufson for The Washington Post.

--“The resolution was presented by the United States with the support of China, a sharp reversal, given Beijing’s longtime support of its neighbor… In the past, China has been unwilling to tighten the screws on Pyongyang, in part out of concern for what an imploding, unstable North Korea might mean for China’s own border. But recently North Korea has continued testing new weapons and missiles, disregarding China’s warnings and personal envoys.” Read the full article here. http://wapo.st/1QLnIH6

See also - “UN Security Council’s New Sanctions on the DPRK,” by Richard Nephew for 38 North. http://bit.ly/1pnTowh

Building on new sanctions - “The successful effort that rolled back and contained Iran's nuclear program offers a key lesson. ‘Sanctions,’ said Amb. Ryan Crocker, ‘played an instrumental role in bringing Iran to the negotiating table, but economic pressure is only effective if it is part of a larger strategy. Without negotiations, sanctions do little to slow Iran's nuclear program.’... This principle applies today to North Korea,” writes Ploughshares Fund President Joe Cirincione. Full piece here. http://huff.to/1RHJQWj

Time to talk to Pyongyang - “The long-term goal of the United States must remain denuclearization of the Korean peninsula,” write Daryl Kimball and Elizabeth Philipp for Arms Control Now. “It would be a grave mistake [to continue insisting] on denuclearization as a precondition for talks which seek to halt and reverse North Korea’s advancing nuclear and missile capabilities. In the next several weeks, it will be important for Washington and Beijing to communicate to Pyongyang that they are willing to formally resume negotiations.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1OTDQoI

Deal helped Iran’s moderates - “The Obama administration was careful, in advocating for the nuclear deal with Iran, not to argue that the deal would necessarily bolster the country's moderates, or that such a boost would be required for the deal to work. But they clearly hoped… It now looks like those hopes may have paid off — that the nuclear deal, according to Iran analysts, may have helped deepen the rise of moderate political forces in Iran, potentially tilting the country's politics in a more conciliatory direction,” writes Max Fisher in Vox.

--“Iran's long-divided political factions split over the nuclear deal, and over Iranian President Hassan Rouhani's larger strategy of easing tensions with the West… The factions that backed Rouhani did very well, and those that opposed him did poorly… The nuclear deal showed Iranians — both regular citizens and regime officials — that Iran's 2013 elections had succeeded in not just symbolically electing a moderate but also helping to steer the course of Iran's politics and policies in a substantially different direction.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1TSy8dp

See also - “Nuclear Deal Helps Defeat Hard-Liners In Iran Vote,” by Ben Armbruster for the Blue Nation Review. http://bit.ly/24BeffY

Israeli military disagrees with Netanyahu on Iran - “The security establishment [assumes] a nuclear-armed Iran is presently the only existential threat to Israel... Because the Iranian nuclear deal diminishes the threat of a nuclear-armed Iran…many think it presents Israel with opportunities despite some associated risks… Netanyahu [assumes] Iran’s ability to maintain its nuclear infrastructure and continue its destabilizing regional activities eclipses the importance of delaying a nuclear-capable Iran,” writes Leore Ben-Chorin for the National Interest.

--“Both sides agree that there are risks to the deal, but only the security establishment acknowledges there are opportunities in delaying a nuclear-capable Iran. [Israel could enhance] the capabilities of existing missile defense systems and deploying the new David’s Sling and Arrow-3 systems... Israel could further develop its capability to strike Iran’s nuclear infrastructure should Iran make a push for nuclear weapons... Furthermore, Israel could focus on managing other more immediate security concerns.” http://bit.ly/21Cdrby

Update on the arsenals - “Despite enormous progress in reducing Cold War nuclear arsenals, the world’s combined inventory of nuclear warheads remains at a very high level: approximately 15,350 warheads as of early-2016. Of these, more than 10,000 are in the military stockpiles… of which almost 4,200 warheads are deployed with operational forces, of which nearly 1,800 US, Russian, British and French warheads are on high alert,” write Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris for the Federation of American Scientists.

--“Approximately 93 percent of all nuclear warheads are owned by Russia and the United States who each have roughly 4,500-4,700 warheads in their military stockpiles; no other nuclear-armed state sees a need for more than a few hundred nuclear weapons... The United States, Russia and the United Kingdom are reducing their warhead inventories, but the pace of reduction is slowing... France and Israel have relatively stable inventories, while China, Pakistan, India and North Korea are increasing their warhead inventories.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1oCYwIN

Tweet - @StephenUCS: How does that old handy piece of advice go . . . um . . . do as I say, not as I do. Ya, that's it. http://bit.ly/1QusKZw

B-21 looks familiar - Air Force personnel’s ideas to name the B-21 include “Flying Money-Pit, 2-Bad (the Cold War never really ended), Boondoggle, Budgetbuster, or Another Flying Turd from Northrop Hunk Of Overpriced Under-Performing Long Delayed Useless Waste of Taxpayers Money. Or how about Resurrection? The Air Force didn’t get its 132 B-2 bombers... So now the Air Force tries again with what looks like a modified B-2: the B-21,” writes Hans Kristensen for the Federation of American Scientists.

--The Air Force says the B-21 will cost $80 billion for 100 bombers… “These cost projections are already being met with considerable skepticism… I just wonder what the Air Force’s fallback plan is. Delay? Fewer bombers? Less advanced design? Fewer fighters? Fewer satellites? Fewer tankers? No LRSO? Fewer ICBMs? Absent a major infusion of additional money into the defense budget... current modernization plan seems unsustainable.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1njl4AS

ISIS hunts for a dirty bomb - “A small video camera… recorded the… family of a Brussels-area man with an important scientific pedigree last year,” report Patrick Malone and R. Jeffrey Smith for the Center for Public Integrity. “The Belgian police discovered [it in the] home of a man with ties to the Islamic State terror group... Its star was a senior researcher at a Belgian nuclear center that produces a significant portion of the world’s supply of radioisotopes.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1Rfr71z

Quick Hits:

--“Defense Budget Gimmicks Ignore Realities,” by Earl Blumenauer in Medium. http://bit.ly/1LW8luf

--“Air Force Defends B-21 on Hill, but McCain Still ‘Concerned’,” by Lara Seligman for Defense News. http://bit.ly/1nhXp3Z

--“New Warhead Designs,” by Michael Krepon for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/21zq1IA

--“Nuclear weapons material flown in UK airspace over 20 times in the last five years, government says,” by Will Worley in the Independent. http://ind.pn/1oP9UoA

--“US pushes Pakistan on nuclear non-proliferation; Sartaj Aziz cites 'security concerns',” by Mugdha Variyar in International Business Times. http://bit.ly/1TV9TLA

--“A Leap Day List for Fiscal Responsibility: The top 9 ways to manage and finance the Pentagon more efficiently,” by Ryan Alexander in U.S. News. http://bit.ly/1pmPRP4

--“What the U.S.-China Experience Can Teach About Iran’s Future,” by Michael Fuchs and Ilan Goldenberg for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1VSLSE5

Events:

--“The Korean Peninsula Issues and U.S. National Security,” featuring Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel. Sponsored by ICAS Liberty Foundation. March 4 from 1:30 to 4:30 p.m. at 2237 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1T40UJ6

--“The FY2017 Defense Budget and Strategic Outlook,” featuring Mike McCord, under secretary of defense (comptroller) and chief financial officer; Dr. Jamie Morin director, Cost Assessment and Program Evaluation; and Assistant Secretary of Defense Robert Scher. March 7 from 9:00 to 10:30 a.m., followed by a panel discussion. Second Floor Conference Center, Center for Strategic & International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave NW, Washington, D.C. 20036. Register via email. http://bit.ly/24yUsOc

--Sahar Nowrouzzadeh, National Security Council director on Iran. March 7 from 7:00 to 8:00 p.m., at George Washington University, Science and Engineering Hall, Lehman Auditorium, 800 22nd St. NW, Washington. Register here. http://bit.ly/1OLKrBK

--Book talk on Nuclear Heartland, Revised: A Guide to the 450 Land-Based Missiles of the United States by John LaForge. March 11 at 7:00 p.m. at Dorothy Day Catholic Worker, 503 Rock Creek Church Road NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/1RKpXxD