Radioactive Materials Missing in Iraq

Radioactive material on the loose - “Iraq is searching for ‘highly dangerous’ radioactive material stolen last year, according to an environment ministry document and seven security, environmental and provincial officials who fear it could be used as a weapon if acquired by Islamic State. The material, stored in a protective case the size of a laptop computer, went missing in November from a storage facility near the southern city of Basra belonging to U.S. oilfield services company Weatherford WFT.N, the document seen by Reuters showed and officials confirmed,” report Ahmed Rasheed, Aref Mohammed and Stephen Kalin for Reuters.

--“Large quantities of Ir-192 [a radioactive isotope of iridium] have gone missing before in the United States, Britain and other countries, stoking fears among security officials that it could be used to make a dirty bomb. A dirty bomb combines nuclear material with conventional explosives to contaminate an area with radiation, in contrast to a nuclear weapon, which uses nuclear fission to trigger a vastly more powerful blast. ‘We are afraid the radioactive element will fall into the hands of Daesh,’ said a senior security official with knowledge of the theft, using an Arabic acronym for Islamic State.” Read the full article here. http://reut.rs/1QIUNUr

Nuclear near-misses - “‘Whoops’ is not a word that you want to hear around the most destructive weapons on earth. Unfortunately it happens more often than you would like to think. There are over 15,000 nuclear weapons in the world today. The US alone has over 7,000. Many are actively deployed on missiles, bombers and submarines, ready to launch at a moment's notice. With so many nuclear weapons, technical failures are a constant risk. Human error exacerbates the problem,” write Geoff Wilson and Cora Henry for the Huffington Post.

--“If you have so many nuclear weapons that you can misplace them and don't maintain them properly, you probably have too many… These weapons are far too dangerous to treat with such carelessness. With some 15,000 nuclear weapons in the world today, every year that goes by without a nuclear accident is a miracle… We must reduce our nuclear arsenals before they begin to reduce us.” Full article here. http://huff.to/1Lsr14K

Editors’ note: Early Warning will be on hiatus next week while Ploughshares Fund staff is in San Francisco. We will resume publication on March 1.

How to respond to Russia - “We are not in a new Cold War... It featured millions of troops on the Fulda Gap in Europe, ready to attack each other; two huge battle fleets all around the world chasing each other in a massive Hunt for Red October world; and a couple of enormous nuclear arsenals on a hair-trigger alert poised to destroy the world. There was virtually no dialogue or cooperation between the Soviet Union and the NATO alliance. Proxy wars abounded. Fortunately, we are not back there,” writes retired Adm. James Stavridis in Foreign Policy.

--“Frankly, we should not lay awake at night worried about Russia... [We] ought to be worried about Europe and the centrifugal forces that seem to inexorably be pulling apart our closest pool of allies in the world... First, we should strengthen NATO… Washington must also send its leaders to Europe often… Third, we should be investing with our European colleagues in the cyber world… Finally, it is important that we keep open the channels of communication with the Kremlin.” Read the analysis here. http://atfp.co/1SUdJG4

See also - “The risk of an unintended war with Russia in Europe, explained in one map,” by Max Fisher for Vox. http://bit.ly/23US2ck

Preventing an arms race in East Asia - “North Korea’s recent nuclear test has brought prominence to China-U.S. nuclear relations, which seem to have taken a downturn, with damaging effects to strategic stability. Despite a decade of candidly exchanging views through Track II dialogues, both countries have failed to convince each other that their respective ballistic missile defense (BMD) and hypersonic weapons programs are not threatening,” write Virginia Marantidou and Eleni Ekmektsioglou for The National Interest.

--“If the trend… continues unchanged, then both countries will find themselves irrevocably trapped in a spiral of qualitative arms competition, which will inevitably cast an even darker shadow over the relationship. Nevertheless, the prospect of an arms control deal appears to be remote for now, for several reasons… Uncertainties over intentions and allies’ objections make any deal a daunting — albeit not impossible — task.” http://bit.ly/1XwGO9z

The Budget is already big enough - “The Pentagon’s proposed $582 billion budget is more than enough to address current security challenges. But members of Congress who agreed to this spending level in last year’s budget deal are already crying out for more… The new expenditures for fighting ISIS and reassuring European allies can be easily accommodated without raising the administration’s proposed war budget of $59 billion,” writes William Hartung for The Hill.

--Hartung argues we should cut wasteful programs instead of increasing the budget. “Spending can be reduced… in the plan to modernize the U.S. nuclear arsenal, with investments in a new bomber, a new land-based ballistic missile, a new ballistic missile submarine, and a new nuclear-armed cruise missile. In particular, spending money now on a new nuclear cruise missile is redundant and ill advised, as former secretary of Defense William Perry and other experts have pointed out.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1UacMIU

See also - “FY 2017 Defense Budget Request Briefing Book,” presented by The Center for Arms Control and Nonproliferation. http://bit.ly/1oMXRZo

Tweet - @KingstonAReif: .@ToddHarrisonDC: Every dollar spent on nuclear is $ cant be spent on conventional. Two likely to compete in coming decade #deterrence2016

Analysis of the US-India nuclear deal - “A decade has passed since negotiations first began on the ‘US-India Civilian Nuclear Cooperation Agreement,’ an accord that... gave India a waiver from the rules of the Nuclear Suppliers Group… It was a watershed moment in the history of US-India relations, marking a transition from a lukewarm and sometimes downright adversarial engagement during the Cold War to the warm glow of... a joint venture,” writes Subrata Ghoshroy for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

--“The deal has mostly achieved its real, yet unstated, goals: vastly improving US-India trade and defense cooperation, gradually opening up the Indian economy, and nudging Indian foreign policy to a closer alignment with the United States... Yet while improved US-India relations are good for the two nations involved and for global peace and stability, the accord has contributed to aggravated tensions between India and Pakistan and a nuclear arms race between the two neighbors.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1otKNbe

Non-proliferation post Iran Deal - “The implications of the recently implemented Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) on Iran’s nuclear program… are immense for the nuclear non-proliferation architecture... The current non-proliferation architecture has already expanded beyond NPT. Acknowledging this difference and limiting reference to the NPT as the ‘central pillar’ of the non-proliferation architecture will allow the non-proliferation community to better manage future proliferation threats,” writes Arka Biswas for The Diplomat.

--“In essence, the Iran nuclear deal succinctly captures how the nuclear non-proliferation community either has already moved beyond the NPT obligations, as with monitoring and verification mechanisms, or does not find the provisions of the NPT in its best interest, with regard to the right to uranium enrichment. The fact that NPT Articles have not been updated or revised only weakens the Treaty’s relevance to the current non-proliferation practices that qualify as acceptable.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1oqZU4L

Tweet - @TimFarnsworth: I finally watched the media panel for #CTBT20: “Where’s the News? (Under-) Reporting on the CTBT.” #mustwatchit http://bit.ly/1XA0wkV

Backup plans - “The United States developed an elaborate plan for a cyberattack on Iran in case the diplomatic effort to limit its nuclear program failed and led to a military conflict... The plan, code-named Nitro Zeus, was devised to disable Iran’s air defenses, communications systems and crucial parts of its power grid, and was shelved... after the nuclear deal... was fulfilled,” write David Sanger and Mark Mazzetti for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1Ls7ocY

Quick Hits:

--“The New Nuclear-Armed Cruise Missile: Unneeded and Destabilizing,” a fact sheet from the Union of Concerned Scientists. http://bit.ly/1or5Pa1

--“William J. Perry Discusses his 'Journey at the Nuclear Brink,’” an interview with William Perry on KQED Radio. http://bit.ly/1KssH3n

--“'Zero Days': Berlin Review — Alex Gibney's latest documentary looks at cyber warfare,” by Boyd van Hoeij for The Hollywood Reporter. http://bit.ly/1mJXRHH

--“Is North Korea Preparing for a Fifth Nuclear Test?” analysis by Jack Liu in 38 North. http://bit.ly/1Qk4nwF

--“Clinton Criticisms on Iran Normalization Misguided,” by Jamal Abdi for NIAC Action. http://bit.ly/1Tsyokq

--“An underground fire is burning near a nuclear waste dump, and officials say EPA has been too slow to react,” by Darryl Fears for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1SvWVVn

Events:

--“North Korea: The Human Rights and Security Nexus,” featuring Michael Kirby, Chair, United Nations Commission of Inquiry on Human Rights in North Korea; Sonja Biserko, President, Helsinki Committee for Human Rights in Serbia; Marzuki Darusman (invited) UN Special Rapporteur on the Situation on Human Rights in the DPRK; Signe Poulsen Head, UN Office of the High Commissioner for Human Rights in Seoul; and Robert King, Special Envoy for North Korean Human Rights Issues, U.S. Department of State. Feb. 19 from 9:00 a.m. to 4:20 p.m. at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, 2nd Floor Conference Center, 1616 Rhode Island Avenue NW, Washington. http://bit.ly/20jOMTb

--“Global Threats Facing the Next President - Congresswoman Jane Harman,” presented by the Matsui Center for Politics and Public Service. Feb. 22 from 4:00 p.m. to 5:30 p.m. PST. Located at the Sutardja Dai Hall, Banatao Auditorium, Berkeley, CA 94709. Register here. http://bit.ly/1QjFCAw

--Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, hearing on “Department of Energy Atomic Energy Defense Activities and Programs,” featuring Frank Klotz, Undersecretary for Nuclear Security and five other witnesses. Feb. 23 at 2:30 p.m. at 232 Russell Senate Office Building, Washington. Webcast on the committee website. http://1.usa.gov/1o2ystZ