Steps the US Can Take to Revitalize the NPT

Strengthening the NPT - “The Obama administration’s record on disarmament has been strong, but it will have to work harder to revitalize the fragile [Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty],” writes Adam Mount in Foreign Affairs.

--“By continuing to live up to its Article VI commitments, the United States can keep the pressure where it belongs: on recalcitrant nuclear states and potential proliferators.”

--Recommendations: “The White House should develop a plan to curtail its modernization efforts… appoint a government-wide coordinator for disarmament efforts… [and] take steps to demonstrate its commitment to disarmament that do not require reductions in the weapons systems [such as] the State Department’s new multilateral disarmament verification initiative.” http://fam.ag/1DmT01o

--See also: “Is Trouble Brewing for the 2015 NPT Review Conference?” by Jakob von Uexkull in The Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1DTiA0t

--And also: “UN raises alarm over stalled nuclear disarmament,” by AFP. http://huff.to/1DTiA0t

Iran update - Iranian and P5+1 negotiators returned to Vienna on Thursday to resume the process of drafting a final nuclear deal, Iranian officials told state media. Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/1zQqWBY

No nuclear dominoes - “A close analysis of probable scenarios suggests that a final Iranian nuclear agreement is unlikely to trigger a regional nuclear weapons cascade,” write Dina Esfandiary and Ariane Tabatabai in The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

--The authors note there are considerable technical and political barriers keeping most states like Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Turkey non-nuclear. “A final agreement between six world powers and Iran to limit the Iranian nuclear program would aim to keep Tehran from acquiring a nuclear weapon. But if an agreement is not reached or Iran cheats and acquires nuclear weapons, a nuclear weapons race is still unlikely to unfold in the Middle East. A number of political and technical challenges are likely to prevent it.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1IMtNkE

NDAA update - The House Armed Services Committee kicked off the 2016 National Defense Authorization Act process with a number of markups yesterday. The Seapower and Projection Forces subcommittee added $1.9 billion to the National Sea-Based Deterrent Fund -- a budget maneuver to cover the enormous costs of the new nuclear submarine without having to cut conventional ships.

--The subcommittee mark is here (pdf): http://1.usa.gov/1aV7pcY

MOX - The cost estimate for the mixed-oxide fuel fabrication facility at Savannah River Site has swelled to $47.5 billion, according to the National Nuclear Security Administration. That’s a 97% increase over the previous estimate.

--NNSA’s one-page summary of the report is here (pdf): http://bit.ly/1DSS5YS

Still unnecessary - “The Pentagon has repeatedly said it doesn’t need — nor can it afford — a third anti-missile battery on American territory… Yet, there’s a new push for doing so in the House Armed Services Committee that could see support in the GOP-led Senate as well, beginning with new direction to re-locate a high-powered X-band radar from a ship.” Jen Judson and Jeremy Herb for POLITICO (paywall). http://politico.pro/1DO2e9c

Tweet - @KelseyDav: Not much of one right now.... #Iran's missiles and the eastern U.S.: How big a threat? http://t.co/l4UO4LjsGs

Sanctions myth-busting - “The view that holding out for a “better deal” by strengthening sanctions does not consider the reality of the current sanctions regime, and is based on bad assumptions and outright myths,” writes Aaron Arnold in The Bulletin.

--Arnold takes on the three biggest myths, arguing: “Doubling down on sanctions to get a better deal is likely to weaken already waning international support for US-imposed sanctions”... Snap-back sanctions will be effective… and “major shifts in international banking severely undermine the prospect of maintaining a robust sanctions regime.” http://bit.ly/1bvVnYZ

IAEA and the deal - The IAEA will play a central role in verifying Iran’s compliance with a comprehensive nuclear agreement. However, in addition to a Comprehensive Safeguards Agreement and the Additional Protocol, the Agency will need a few more tools than in its existing toolkit to verify a deal, write Hugh Chalmers and Andreas Persbo of Vertic. Full report here. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1DEDmgQ

Quick Hits:

--“Sen. Graham lists conditions for 'yes' vote on Iran nuclear deal,” by Mary Troyan for USA Today. http://usat.ly/1zPHwlz

--“Ignore the Noise in Washington and Tehran. An Iran Nuclear Deal Is Still Likely,” by Ian Bremmer in TIME. http://ti.me/1DgfdwQ

--“Just How Many Nuclear Weapons Does North Korea Have? A Look at the Numbers,” from The Wall Street Journal. http://on.wsj.com/1FgKBkO

Events:

--“Atomic Aversion and Just War Principles” featuring Scott Sagan. April 24, 12:00-1:00pm at the Wilson Center. http://bit.ly/1JZwJLx

--“The Urgency of Action on the CTBT: Contributing to International Security in an Increasingly Unstable World” CTBT side event at the 2015 NPT Review Conference with Erzhan Ashikbayev, Rose Gottemoeller, Jayantha Dhanapala, Takeshi Hikihara, Lord Desmond Browne and Lassina Zerbo. April 28 at 1:00pm-2:00pm, Trusteeship Council, United Nations Headquarters, New York.

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00 AM. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/

--”A Conversation With H.E. Dr. Mohammad Javad Zarif, Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran. New America In partnership with the NYU Center on International Cooperation. April 29, 10:00-11:30am. Live webcast here: http://bit.ly/1JtO1Qd