The Air Force Can’t Build an Affordable Bomber

The Pentagon’s bomber fantasy - The Air Force’s plan to build 100 new nuclear bombers at $550 million per copy is a “wild fantasy,” experts say. The last bomber cost $2.2 billion each -- almost five times the original estimate -- for only 20 planes.

--Despite the Pentagon’s commitment to the program, experts argue that the new bomber has limited strategic value in addressing current security challenges. Bloomberg’s David Lerman has the full story. http://bloom.bg/1buyCo4

Science behind the scenes - As negotiators raced to get an agreement with Iran, scientists at U.S. national labs raced to provide scientific solutions to the most vexing technical problems under negotiation.

--This effort included using replicas in Oakridge national lab to validate assumptions about Iran’s centrifuges, having experts at Argonne national lab review designs of Iran’s Arak reactor to prevent its production of plutonium and developing a way to repurpose Iran’s Fordow facility for peaceful scientific work.

--“A senior official of the National Nuclear Security Administration, Kevin Veal, who has been along for every negotiating session, would send questions back to the laboratories, hoping to separate good ideas from bad. ‘It’s what our people love to do,’ said Thom Mason, the director of Oak Ridge National Laboratory. ‘It can be very rewarding.’” Full story from David Sanger and William J. Broad in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1zLXSvm

Challenges - Getting a good final deal with Iran is possible but challenging, writes The New York Times’ Thomas Friedman. The key hurdles: it’s “hard to implement a complex arms control deal with an adversary you don’t trust… It requires constant vigilance… For us, this is solely an arms control agreement. For Iran, this is ‘an identity crisis’… Finally, you have the regional challenge… Maintaining that balance [between Shiite Persians and Sunni Arabs] will not be easy.”

--Bottom line: ”These are not reasons to reject the deal. They are reasons to finish it right.” http://nyti.ms/1Ddu6Qp

Iran and nonpro policy - Allowing Iran to maintain limited enrichment capability is not an aberration, but a historical extension of U.S. nonproliferation policy, argue Nick Miller and Or Rabinowitz in The Washington Post.

--“More often than not,” they write, “the U.S. government has elected to broker pragmatic deals to restrict a country’s nuclear program and thereby limit the damage to the nonproliferation regime.” http://wapo.st/1OeBXsC

Rhetoric and redlines - Comparing Iran’s opening negotiating positions to what they agreed to in the framework deal, it’s clear that Iran is willing to make concessions. That shows their recent tough talk may be more substance than rhetoric and bodes well for the final agreement, experts say.

-- Former U.S. negotiator Gary Samore says he thought Khamenei “was serious about his red lines.” Now, he says, “I see he’s not. The Iranian incentive to get sanctions relief is so strong that he is prepared to sacrifice or accept limits on his nuclear program.” AP reports. http://wapo.st/1DNCnhF

Tweet - @ArianeTabatabai: Can I just point out: Everyone now starting to say, "Khamenei red-lines not what we thought they were." Some of us told you that months ago

Corker update - The Senate could begin debate today or tomorrow on the Corker-Cardin Iran deal review bill, Reuters reports. Republicans are expected to propose a number of amendments to the bill, potentially including a requirement that the president certify Iran is not supporting terrorism against the U.S. and an amendment tying the deal to the release of American prisoners held in Iran. http://reut.rs/1G7dJaj

Tweet - @KingstonAReif: FY16 HASC strategic forces mark is out. Directs development of military capabilities to counter Russia INF violation

NK’s missiles - “There is no clear evidence that Pyongyang has developed a warhead small enough to fit on an ICBM or one capable of surviving re-entry at ICBM range.” A new CRS report on “Ballistic Missile Defense in the Asia-Pacific Region: Cooperation and Opposition.” (pdf) http://bit.ly/1OeB1oe

South Korea deal - “After four and a half years of low-key yet highly sensitive negotiations, the United States and South Korea announced a revised treaty on Wednesday that continues to deny — but not permanently rule out — South Korea the right to enrich uranium or reprocess spent nuclear fuel, even for peaceful purposes.” Choe Sang-Hun for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1G70vdw

Rezaian - “[The Supreme Leader] has reportedly come to conclude that after years of crippling sanctions, Iran has much to gain by agreeing to a deal. He should encourage a prompt and fair resolution in Mr. Rezaian’s case. This unjust imprisonment only serves the interest of those who are making the case that the Iranian government can’t be trusted.” The New York Times on Iran’s detention of U.S. journalist Jason Rezaian. http://nyti.ms/1ySbYRg

Tweet - @suzannedimaggio: We're hosting a conversation w #Iran's FM Javad Zarif 4/29 @ 10am EST. Send ?s using #ZarifNYC. Info & live webcast: http://t.co/IHMycbssky

Quick Hits:

--“House Legislation Hits Alarm on Russia, Iran,” by John Bennett for Defense News. http://bit.ly/1HV4jmO

--”The Best Case Against the Iran Deal Has Some Holes,” by Ali Gharib for LobeLog. http://bit.ly/1buXKLy

--“Decoding the Iran Nuclear Deal: Key questions, points of divergence, pros and cons, pending legislation, and essential facts,” from the Belfer Center (pdf). http://bit.ly/1FGQzr0

Events:

--“The Changing Face of Iran: Nuclear Diplomacy and its Implications,” featuring Ali Vaez. April 22, 8:30 to 10:00 London time. Hosted by Chatham House. http://bit.ly/1Hxexts

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00 AM. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/

--“Nuclear Agreement with Iran: Can’t Trust, Can We Verify?” Hearing of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, with witnesses Charles Duelfer and David Albright. April 22 at 10:00am in Rayburn 2172. http://1.usa.gov/1J2PwYA

--”Air Force and Navy Nuclear Programs and the Implementation of Nuclear Enterprise Review Recommendations” Hearing of the Senate Armed Services Committee Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, with witnesses Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Lt. Gen. Stephen Wilson, VADM Terry Benedict, Deputy NNSA Administrator Madelyn Creedon and Dr. Yisroel Brumer. April 22 at 2:30pm in Russell ST-222. http://1.usa.gov/1JmAlGD

--“Atomic Aversion and Just War Principles” featuring Scott Sagan. April 24, 12:00-1:00pm at the Wilson Center.

--“The Urgency of Action on the CTBT: Contributing to International Security in an Increasingly Unstable World” side event at the 2015 NPT Review Conference with Erzhan Ashikbayev, Rose Gottemoeller, Jayantha Dhanapala, Takeshi Hikihara, Lord Desmond Browne and Lassina Zerbo. April 28 at 1:00pm-2:00pm, Trusteeship Council, United Nations Headquarters, New York. http://bit.ly/1DNGc6w