North Korea Threatens 5th Nuclear Test

Ramping up nuclear rhetoric - “The North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un, said his country would soon conduct another nuclear test and also flight-test ballistic missiles capable of carrying nuclear warheads, the country’s state-run news media reported Tuesday. If Mr. Kim follows through with those threats, that would mean North Korea was readying its fifth nuclear test and was preparing to conduct more missile launchings in defiance of the sanctions resolution the United Nations Security Council unanimously adopted this month against the country,” writes Choe Sang-Hun for The New York Times.

--“Although North Korea has repeatedly threatened to launch nuclear strikes against the United States, officials and analysts have questioned how close the country has come to acquiring such technology, as well as the ability to guide a long-range missile. Although Mr. Kim said that his country has the re-entry technology, it has never flight-tested a long-range missile.Fears have grown, however, that the country was mastering technologies to build such a missile.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/1S1IN3x

What North Korea really wants - “They’ve paraded two different ICBMs through Pyongyang, conducted four nuclear tests, showed us a compact nuclear design sitting next to a modern reentry vehicle... and hung a giant wall map of the United States marked with targets and titled ‘Mainland Strike Plan.’ Here’s a wild guess [about the message North Korea is trying to send]: They are building nuclear-armed ICBMs to strike the United States! Why is this so hard to grasp?” writes Jeffrey Lewis in Foreign Policy.

--“Part of the problem is that U.S. officials generally take the attitude of demanding the North Koreans prove they have a capability before grudgingly crediting them with it… Our studied skepticism of North Korea’s capabilities is not in our long-term interest. We should be in the business of seeking moratoria in North Korea on nuclear and missile tests, not daring Pyongyang to do more… If the propaganda doesn’t persuade us to start dealing with this problem, I shudder to think what Kim will do to get our attention next.” Full article here. http://atfp.co/1U16PzF

Tweet - @JosephHDempsey: #NorthKorea latest #nuclear miniaturization claim shows #KimJongUn inspecting warhead design http://bit.ly/1U4cFjw

Serious on sanctions - A panel of experts found “serious questions about the efficacy of the current United Nations sanctions regime,” writes Elizabeth Philipp for the Arms Control Association. “The most recent Security Council resolution, however, addresses deficiencies in the sanctions regime by providing states with new tools and expanded authority to better enforce nonproliferation measures. If properly implemented, this resolution could help curb North Korea’s access to dual-use materials and technologies.”

--“This early momentum in sanctions implementation must be sustained; sanctions are of little value unless they are enforced by UN member states... North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has repeatedly stated his country’s commitment to improving its nuclear capability in both ‘quantity and quality.’ One way to prevent this progress today is to prevent the flow of cash, goods, and technical knowledge to North Korea by enforcing the extant Security Council resolutions.” Read the full analysis here. http://bit.ly/22gfwqF

See also - “North Korean nuclear test shook the earth but where's the proper proof?” by Shadia Nasralla for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1plruRi

Final nuclear security summit nears - “Much has been done to reduce nuclear weapons stockpiles and materials over the past 25 years, but hazards remain from highly enriched uranium and plutonium spread around the globe. Some 1,800 metric tons of weapons-useable material is stored in hundreds of facilities, including civilian research reactors and military stocks,” writes the Washington Post editorial board.

--“Leaders of more than 50 nations will gather… for the fourth and final nuclear security summit. Then what? The summit process has not given rise to an effective global system for securing these nuclear materials. It will take some real imagination and determination to keep up the pressure. We hear the coming summit will produce ‘action plans’... It may also set up some kind of smaller, ongoing contact group. But will these be sufficient to sustain the sense of urgency and political drive that the summits generated?” Full article here. http://wapo.st/22exwoO

Tweet - @taxpayers: A new #Pentagon #budget gimmick has the Air Force "Dancing with the Four Stars" http://bit.ly/1RhV7th

Iran launched missiles legally - “Iran’s binge of short- and medium-range ballistic missile launches on March 8 and 9 garnered considerable attention in the press and in American political circles. These provocative launches... were roundly condemned by U.S. politicians in both parties. It may be more revealing, however, to focus on two Iranian missile types that were not launched last week — launches that have been expected for years,” by Greg Thielmann for the Arms Control Association.

--“[The expected launches] represent aspects of missile development that have been of most acute concern to those who worry about the threat future long-range Iranian missiles could pose to Europe and the United States. The missiles launched last week have been identified as the 750 kilometer range Qiam and the 1,600 kilometer range Ghadr-1. Both are single-stage, liquid-fueled systems. Neither demonstrated a new capability; neither system is prohibited by the Iran nuclear deal.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1U1JTjz

Tweet - @plough_shares: For #NationalWomensHistoryMonth we pay respect to the life of a woman who made history → http://bit.ly/sallylilienthal

Progress toward securing nuclear materials -”Paraguay ratified the Amendment to the Convention on the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material (CPPNM) today, bringing to just ten the number of adherences still required for the entry into force of this legal instrument that will help strengthen nuclear security around the world,” writes Vincent Fournier for the International Atomic Energy Agency.

--“‘We are now approaching the finishing line,’ said IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano. ‘I hope that after a decade the Amendment can finally come into force in the very near future, making it harder for terrorists to get their hands on nuclear material or to sabotage a nuclear facility,’... Two-thirds of the States Parties to the CPPNM must adhere to the Amendment for it to enter into force. The CPPNM now has 152 States Parties and the Amendment has 92 Contracting States.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1P8ayTp

Time for Britain to give up the Trident? - “Britain is one of the world's few nuclear-armed powers. But should it be? That question is under increasing public debate in Britain, especially after Defense Minister Michael Fallon's announcement that the government will invest £642 million ($910 million) in Britain’s nuclear submarines,” writes Elisabeth Braw for The Christian Science Monitor.

--“‘There’s no need for Britain to have its own nuclear deterrent, just as little as there is a need for Lithuania to have its own nuclear deterrent,’ notes Hans Kristensen, director of the Nuclear Information Project at the Federation of American Scientists. ‘Britain’s nuclear deterrent has more to do with tradition, national prestige, and some people in London believing that Britain must have its own nuclear strike option despite the US security guarantee.’” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1MbGVk8

Young people need context for nuclear questions- “In school, my classmates and I studied World War II... We thought of nuclear weapons as history. My generation grew up believing that the problem of nuclear weapons had been solved... Our president has agreed to reduce the nuclear arsenal, and we no longer practice hiding under our desks in case the bombs drop. We have no context for the kinds of danger that these weapons present,” writes Chapin Boyer for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

-- “We say we care about the environment... but how can a person call himself or herself an environmentalist and not recognize the dangers that nuclear weapons pose to the natural world? How can someone care about improving the lives of the down-and-out without fearing the effects a nuclear catastrophe would have on the people with the least power? We have no context for fearing nuclear weapons, but we can learn about them, and about how they relate to the issues for which we do have a context.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/1SNglVu

Quick Hits:

--“Former covert CIA operations officer Valerie Plame,” an interview by John Mecklin for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/1QUw7v5

--“Belgium orders immediate security upgrade at its nuclear sites,” by Patrick Malone for the Center for Public Integrity. http://bit.ly/1TAv0Ei

--“Nuclear workers say they were retaliated against for exposing wrongdoing,” by Lindsay Wise and Sammy Fretwell for The State. http://bit.ly/22eqpg7

--“Applying Jus In Bello to the Nuclear Deterrent,” by Justin Anderson for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1Wlq9Fc

--“NUSIMS:Online Tool to Strengthen Nuclear Security,” by Aabha Dixit of the International Atomic Energy Agency. http://bit.ly/1SPvcPc

--“No. 2 Military Officer: National Dialogue on Nuclear Deterrent Vital,” by Aaron Mehta for Defense News. http://bit.ly/1QYlBkm

Events:

--“Webinar: Our Budget, Our Priorities,” featuring Jasmine Tucker, National Priorities Project. Sponsored by Women's Action for New Directions. March 16 at 3:00 p.m. at the National Priorities Project and Women Legislators' Lobby. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1LevUUk

--Book launch: Asia's Latent Nuclear Powers: Japan, South Korea and Taiwan, by Mark Fitzpatrick, Executive Director, IISS–US. Discussion with Mark Fitzpatrick and Robert Gallucci, the former State Department special envoy for North Korea. March 17 from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. at IISS-US, 2121 K Street NW, Suite 801, Washington, DC 20037. RSVP by email. http://bit.ly/222PI4I

--“A Global Reality Check on Nuclear Security,” featuring Toby Dalton, Matthew Bunn, Martin Malin, Nickolas Roth and William Tobey, Harvard University. March 21 from 12:30 to 2:00 p.m. Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://ceip.org/250oIle

--“A Norm for Nuclear Material Production: Beyond the Washington Summit and the Iran Deal,” featuring James Acton, Ariel Levite and Togzhan Kassenova, Carnegie Endowment. March 22 from 9:30 to 11:00 a.m. at the Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://ceip.org/251TvOP

--“Inside North Korea Today: Working for Peace on the Korean Peninsula,” featuring Linda Lewis, American Friends Service Committee. March 23 from 2:30 to 4:00 p.m. at George Washington University, 1957 E St. NW, Conference Room 505, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1LojlGm

Dessert:

Doomsday levity from xkcd - Yesterday’s xkcd comic from cartoonist Randall Munroe features the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists’ Doomsday Clock. Daylight savings time can be a dangerous thing when you are already 3 minutes to midnight. Find the comic here. http://xkcd.com/1655/