More Sanctions Leveled Against North Korea

Tougher sanctions for North Korea - “With private cybersecurity firms linking North Korea to recent computer attacks that absconded with at least $81 million, the Treasury Department moved on Wednesday to choke off Pyongyang’s remaining access to the global financial system, designating the country a ‘primary’ money launderer,” report David Sanger and Michael Corkery for The New York Times.

--“The Treasury, employing sanctions techniques that helped pressure Iran to give up much of its nuclear program, said it would seek to impose what are known as secondary sanctions against the reclusive communist country… In this case, the sanctions were proposed most immediately because of a Treasury investigation that concluded North Korea uses hard currency to finance its nuclear and missile programs.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/1Xke1s8

North Korean plutonium production likely - “Recent commercial satellite imagery shows new evidence that North Korea is preparing to commence or has already begun conducting a reprocessing campaign to separate more plutonium for nuclear weapons at the Yongbyon Nuclear Scientific Research Center… Exactly how much new plutonium Pyongyang can produce if such a campaign is underway remains unclear… At maximum capacity, the reactor could produce approximately 6 kilograms of plutonium per year, probably enough for two nuclear weapons,” writes Joseph Bermudez, Jr., for 38 North. Full article here. http://bit.ly/1Wxc0rN

See also - “North Korea's nuclear weapons: What now?” with articles by Shen Dingli and Chung-in Moon for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/285KGVq

Editors’ Note: Early Warning will be on hiatus next week while Ploughshares Fund staff is in San Francisco. We will resume publication on June 14.

Guarding against proliferation in the Middle East - “By sharply diminishing Iran’s capacity to produce fissile material for nuclear weapons for at least 10-15 years, the [Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action] has reduced incentives for neighboring states to acquire nuclear weapons or at least a hedging fuel cycle capability… In the years preceding the JCPOA, it had practically become the conventional wisdom that, given Iran’s nuclear program, several additional nuclear-armed states would inevitably emerge in the Middle East. That conventional wisdom has largely been discredited,” write Robert Einhorn and Richard Nephew in a new report for the Brookings Institution.

--“But there is a risk that a more complacent conventional wisdom will take its place — that we no longer have to worry about a regional nuclear arms competition. It will be essential for the United States and other interested countries — pursuing policies along the lines recommended here — to make sure that the earlier predictions of a Middle East proliferation cascade do not yet come to pass.” Full report here. http://brook.gs/1Ux5tKp

Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists releases annual report - “It is still three minutes to midnight,” according to the report. “The year 2015 abounded in disturbing nuclear rhetoric, particularly about the usability of nuclear weapons, but contained at least one real achievement: the landmark Iran nuclear deal… It has the potential to transform the nuclear nonproliferation landscape in the Middle East as well as provide impetus for sorely needed innovations in the nonproliferation regime.”

--“The world may be used to outrageous rhetoric from North Korea, but officials in several other countries made irresponsible comments in 2015 about raising the alert status of nuclear weapon systems, acquiring nuclear capabilities, and even using nuclear weapons. We hope that, as an unintended consequence of such rhetoric, citizens will be galvanized to address risks they thought long contained. The more likely outcome is that nuclear bombast will raise the temperature in crisis situations.” Report here. http://bit.ly/1Wy64iv

Tweet - @StephenUCS: Nuclear catastrophe is more likely than ever & public is blissfully unaware, w/ @SecDef19 @AtomicAnalyst via @vice http://bit.ly/1P8tIKt

Obama’s nuclear legacy - “Of all the accomplishments and disappointments of the Obama presidency, his nuclear weapons policy is the greatest. Yes, you read that correctly. Obama’s approach to nukes will be his most significant legacy as well as his most salient failure. Obama promised ‘hope and change’ in 2007. The paradox of his nuclear weapons policy is that it falls somewhere between these aspirational poles of his presidency,” writes John Feffer for LobeLog.

--“The doomsday clock of The Bulletin of Atomic Scientists stands as close to midnight in 2016 as at any point in the last 60 years… With all the major threats facing mankind at the moment — from climate change to political extremism — it would be a great relief to retire nuclear holocaust as a clear and present danger. Unfortunately, as the doomsday clock dramatically demonstrates, that’s not possible. And Barack Obama, despite his fine words and occasional actions, deserves at least part of the blame.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1Xkzxgg

Treaties for the future - “One reason why there is little interest in negotiating a follow-on agreement to New START is that the treaty’s modest scope did little to solve the very real security problems that [Russia and the U.S.] face. To break the deadlock, the United States and Russia should seek a treaty that does not only limit existing strategic forces but also the weapons systems that both countries plan to develop and deploy in the next decade,” writes Adam Mount for the Deep Cuts Commision.

--“In search of a stabilizing and mutually advantageous arms control agreement, the United States and Russia should consider an agreement that limits not only their existing arsenals but also the modernization programs of both countries. Including plans for future weapons systems would ensure that the agreement enforces strategic stability not only in the near term but also far into the 21st century.” Read the full working paper here. http://bit.ly/25CFI3N

Tweet - @TomCollina: What are they afraid of? We know the price of the new #nuclear sub and ICBM, why not the bomber? http://bit.ly/1XkKwGw

Quick Hits:

--“UN strongly condemns failed North Korea missiles launches,” by Edith M. Lederer for the AP. http://wapo.st/1Vz7ckI

--“What’s Missing as NATO Rearms Its Eastern Flank? Diplomacy,” by Ulrich Kühn for Defense One. http://bit.ly/1UhNMMa

--“Grandson Of Officer On Atomic Bomb Missions Over Japan Tells Survivors’ Stories,” by Arisa Ido for Huffington Post. http://huff.to/1P71sbk

--“Leahy Urges Quick Resolution of Iran Banking Issues,” by Jens Flottau for Aviation Dailiy. http://bit.ly/1XSBNda

--“Most U.S. states have sanctions against Iran. Here’s why that’s a problem,” by Jo-Anne Hart and Sue Eckert. http://wapo.st/1TXI9W8

--“India’s Unresolvable Nuclear Debate,” by Toby Dalton and George Perkovich for The Wire. http://bit.ly/1RQC8G8

--“Three (or Four) Strikes for the Musudan?” by John Schilling for 38 North. http://bit.ly/1Uv0GJe

Events:

--“Global Nuclear Challenges and Solutions for the Next U.S. President,” with Benjamin Rhodes, deputy national security advisor to the President; Setsuko Thurlow, Hiroshima atomic bomb survivor; and seven other speakers. Presented by the Arms Control Association. June 6 from 9:00 a.m. to 2:30 p.m. at the Carnegie Endowment, Root Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/23rIEK8

--“The Evolution of the Nuclear Order: A Global Perspective,” featuring Toby Dalton and five other speakers. June 6 from 3:00 to 5:00 p.m. at the Carnegie Endowment, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://ceip.org/1Z2TzsO

--“Chain Reaction: Women in Security,” featuring Valerie Plame, former CIA officer and author; Michèle Flournoy, co-founder and CEO of the Center for a New American Security; Kavita Ramdas, senior advisor on global strategy at Ford Foundation; Kelsey Davenport, director for nonproliferation policy at the Arms Control Association; and Smriti Keshari, multi-disciplinary artist and producer. June 6 from 6:00 to 9:00 p.m. at The Open Square at Futures Without Violence, 100 Montgomery Street, The Presidio of San Francisco San Francisco, CA. Buy tickets here. http://bit.ly/1RYski6

--“China’s Policy Toward the Korean Peninsula,” with seven speakers. June 13 from 12:00 to 4:00 p.m. at the Stimson Center, 1211 Connecticut Ave. NW, Eighth Floor, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/22A6dlo

--“Defense Budgeting and National Security,” with Deborah Lee James, Air Force Secretary. June 13 from 2:00 to 3:00 p.m. at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2121 K St. NW, Suite 801, Washington. RSVP by email. http://bit.ly/1PfQaXu