Drafting of a Comprehensive Agreement to Start This Week

June 18, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Drafting the deal - “Iran and six world powers hope to start drafting the text of a framework for a comprehensive nuclear accord on June 18 and to complete a framework by the end of the talks here within the week, Iran’s deputy foreign minister said June 17, as negotiations intensify even amid continued gaps on elements of a final deal,” writes Laura Rozen in Al-Monitor. “The two sides have agreed that Iran will have enrichment and sanctions relief in a final deal, but need to agree on how much and on the details, Iran Deputy Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi told Iranian journalists at the top of a press briefing.”

--“All the parties are hoping to complete the final deal by July 20, US and Iranian officials both said here this week, and have not discussed extending the talks up to this point. The ‘Americans are serious’ about trying to get a deal, Araghchi told the Iranian journalists.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1lCVPWc

Tweet - @ReutersIran: U.S., Iran experts dispute nuclear bomb 'breakout' timeline http://reut.rs/1pfNwPG

Upbeat assessment - “Iranian nuclear negotiator offered an upbeat assessment of ongoing international nuclear talks during a news conference for Iranian journalists, but said a preliminary text for a comprehensive agreement may include hundreds of points of dispute, Iranian news outlets reported Wednesday,” writes Paul Richter in the Los Angeles Times. Full article here. http://lat.ms/STyBjo

Sanctions still strong - “U.S. Treasury Secretary Jack Lew said Iran's economy remained in a state of distress due to sanctions over its nuclear programme and that the United States would not rush into making a bad deal to prevent Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon,” reports Steven Scheer for Reuters. “Lew said that the temporary and reversible sanctions relief have been limited.”

--“‘Iran is losing a significant amount in oil sales alone from the sanctions that remain in place, more than the value of the temporary relief,’ Lew said in a speech in Jerusalem to the U.S.-Israel Joint Economic Development Group on Wednesday. ‘As we approach the last month of the agreed upon period for negotiations, Iran's economy remains in a state of distress that brought the government to the negotiating table in the first place,’ he said. Such sustained pressure gives the United States the opportunity to pursue a negotiated agreement with Iran, in conjunction with its P5+1 partners, that will assure the international community that Iran's nuclear program is entirely peaceful.” Full report here. http://reut.rs/1r70O2f

Applying pressure - “The top Republican and Democrat on the House Foreign Affairs Committee are upping the pressure on the White House to work with Congress before agreeing to any final deal with Iran regarding its nuclear program,” writes Mario Trujillo in The Hill. “Chairman Ed Royce (R-Calif.) and Rep. Eliot Engel (D-N.Y.) are collecting signatures on a letter to President Obama pointing out that any permanent agreement to lift sanctions on Iran must be approved by Congress.”

--“The administration has said it is committed to lifting nuclear-related sanctions as part of the deal, but the congressmen point out that most U.S. sanctions are intertwined with Iran’s other actions. Those include its ballistic missile program, its nonconventional weapons program and its support for international terrorism.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1snZHje

The new normal - “[The] geopolitical enmity that has characterized relations between the United States and Iran for more than three decades has now been overtaken by events in Iraq and elsewhere,” writes Trita Parsi in Foreign Policy. “News emerged on Monday that Washington and Tehran may cooperate militarily to stop the Islamic State of Iraq and al-Sham (ISIS) from advancing deeper into Iraq...the common interest between Iran and the United States is not merely tactical or temporary: With the region roiling as it is, the reality that Iran and the United States might end up on the same side is simply the new normal.”

--“If Iran plays a constructive role, the world will notice. But changing old patterns require courage, strength, and political will. It remains to be seen if the leadership in Tehran can deliver those -- or if Washington will be receptive. Whatever the two sides do, they should not let outdated rivalries stand in the way. If anything, the onslaught of ISIS shows that a U.S.-Iran conversation about regional matters is long overdue.” http://atfp.co/1pciEQm

Balancing act - “President Obama has, so far, struck the right note on Iraq, where Sunni extremist militants are seizing territory and threatening the existence of the state,” writes The New York Times editorial board. “He has been cautious — emphasizing the need for political reform in Iraq and reaching out to other countries that could have an impact on its fate. His opening to Iran has been the most controversial and potentially the most important move...The two countries cooperated on Afghanistan in 2001 against the Taliban, and, in theory, they should be able to find common interest in stabilizing Iraq.”

--“Mr. Obama has called on Mr. Maliki to form a broadly representative government of Shiites, Sunnis and Kurds as a condition of any military action by the United States. The American ambassador in Iraq and a senior State Department official have been pressing that issue in Baghdad. Even so, Mr. Maliki on Tuesday refused to reach out to Sunnis. Maybe Iran can make him hear the message.” Read the full piece here. http://nyti.ms/1uCR0gJ

Grand reopening - “Relations between Britain and Iran have improved in recent months and ‘circumstances are right’ to reopen the British Embassy in Tehran, Foreign Secretary William Hague said Tuesday. The election a year ago of moderate Iranian President Hassan Rouhani and talks in recent months between Iran and six global powers on curbing Iran's nuclear ambitions have brought about a significant change in the relationship between London and Tehran, Hague said.”

--“Britain believes in and I believe in step by step building our relationship with Iran because we need to have proper dialogue with that country,” British Prime Minister David Cameron said. “We are having dialogue over the nuclear weapons issue and I think we should be having dialogue with it on issues of regional security." Carol Williams reports for the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1nfIBMf

Nuclear security funding - “Senate appropriators said Tuesday that their spending bill for fiscal 2015 includes several measures meant to aid efforts to shield nuclear and radiological materials from terrorists,” writes Douglas Guarino in Global Security Newswire. “The bill, which the Senate Appropriations Subcommittee on Energy and Water approved unanimously, includes a provision that would require the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission ‘to establish minimum security standards for radiological sources at medical and industrial facilities,’ according to a summary of the legislation. The document notes that ‘recent investigations found that these sources are vulnerable to theft, and current regulations are not sufficient to protect the public against radiological terrorism.’"

--“While full details of the Senate bill are not expected to be available until later this week, the legislation recommends $1.9 billion -- $24 million above the fiscal year 2014 level and $423 million above the budget request -- ‘for nonproliferation activities that reduce the threat of terrorism.’” Full article here. http://bit.ly/ULIXnp

USAF, Navy forced to cooperate - “A key Navy leader said his service should cooperate with the Air Force on modernizing strategic missiles to cut costs,” Global Security Newswire reports. Vice Adm. Terry Benedict, director of the Navy's Strategic Systems Programs, said that, "In the past, it's been, 'the Navy designs [submarine-launched ballistic missiles], the Air Force designs [intercontinental ballistic missiles], and never shall they talk,' I'm trying to break down those walls. ... We should be required to talk at the design and development phase."

--The sudden drive for cooperation comes from recent changes in the price of solid rocket fuel, where “NASA's decision to end its Space Shuttle program has had a huge impact on the domestic rocket-engine industry because the space agency was the biggest purchaser of solid-fuel rocket boosters, which are also used in the Navy's Trident nuclear-tipped ballistic missiles. As a result, industry prices have risen.”

--Adm. Benedict said, “if the Navy is unable to persuade NASA to keep purchasing solid-fuel boosters for other space programs it could try to convince the Air Force to continue using such boosters in its updated land-based missile force. The Navy cannot switch to a liquid-fuel model for its missiles because the propellant is not safe within the narrow confines of a submarine.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1so1m8l

Tweet - @SchwartzCNS: How much was enough? In 1956, the US Army said it required 151,000 nuclear weapons http://bit.ly/1lyYRfE

No chance Canada pays money for this - “A Canadian parliamentary panel on Monday gave its full-throated support to the country joining a U.S.-led missile shield for North America,” reports Global Security Newswire. “The Canadian Senate Committee on National Security and Defence announced the panel was ‘unanimous in recommending that the government of Canada enter into an agreement with the United States to participate as a partner in ballistic missile defense.’"

--“The panel recently held a number of hearings on the matter of U.S.-Canadian antimissile collaboration. Ottawa in 2005 turned down a U.S. proposal to participate in a regional antimissile framework, but the current Conservative Party-led government this spring asked parliament to hold hearings to examine whether the time had come to change that stance.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1qs6UwN

USAF cuts golden handshakes - “The Air Force will spare more airmen from involuntary separation in part to bolster the service’s nuclear missile corps, which has faced a series of embarrassing lapses,” reports Jennifer H. Svan for Stars and Stripes. “As a result, the Air Force says, about 4,000 fewer airmen than originally expected will meet involuntary retention boards this summer and fall.”

--“‘Establishing full manning in our nuclear positions underscores the vital importance of this mission,’ Air Force Secretary Deborah Lee James was quoted as saying in an Air Force news release issued Friday. Better staffing, she said, offers ‘these critical’ airmen ‘a more stable work schedule and improves their quality of life.’ The focus on improving the nuclear force follows a series of embarrassing lapses among the airmen in charge of the country’s intercontinental ballistic missiles, including a major cheating scandal and poor inspection results.” Full story here. http://1.usa.gov/T6YFbm

Quick-hits:

--“Poll Shows Scottish Support for Keeping Trident in Event of Secession” in Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1lyRBkb

--“Senate to Consider Massive Spending Bill - Maybe” by Andrew Taylor for the AP. http://abcn.ws/1so3jBQ

--“A new report shows nuclear weapons almost detonated in North Carolina in 1961” by Dylan Matthews in Vox. http://bit.ly/1slR8FC

Events:

--“The Iran Nuclear Deal and the Impacts on its Neighbors.” Discussion with Abdullah Baadood, Salah Elzein, Bijan Khajehpour, Afshin Molavi, David Ottaway, and Marina Ottaway. June 23 from 9:30-12:00 at the Wilson Center, 5th floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lsjx99

--“PONI Breakfast with Kirk Donald.” Breakfast discussion with former National Nuclear Security Administration Deputy Administrator Kirk Donald. June 26 from 9:00-10:30 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1owrOLA

--“Toward a Comprehensive, Effective Nuclear Deal with Iran?” Discussion with Daryl Kimball, Greg Thielmann, Kelsey Davenport, and Frank von Hippel. June 26 from 10:00-12:00 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Choate Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1p9kz8a

--“Aegis Sea-Based Missile Defense: Present Status and Future Recommendations.” Discussion with John James, Rear Adm. James Kilby, Ron O’Rourke, Henry Cooper, and Robert Soofer. June 26 from 12:00-2:00 at SVC 201-00, Capitol Visitor Center. RSVP by email to Polly Parke at pparke@ifpa.org

Dessert:

World Cup chill-out - “It's 11.30pm Tehran time and Hassan Rouhani is relaxing at home, watching the World Cup match between Iran and Nigeria,” writes Saeed Kamali Dehghan in The Guardian. “There's no bottle of beer, but a cup of Persian tea and a plate of fruit in front of him. It's clearly carefully posed – too good to be an spontaneous picture – but still, quite remarkable for a 65-year-old Iranian cleric. ‘Proud of our boys who secured our first point – hopefully the first of many more to come,’ the president tweeted, referring to the goalless draw in Curitiba, along with the photo – retweeted at least 3,000 times. Rouhani has 213,000 Twitter followers.”

--“The 'average Joe' pictures are all part of Iran's soccer diplomacy. In Vienna, where senior Iranian and western diplomats were engaged in intense nuclear negotiations, talks were put on hold on Monday night to allow Iran's foreign minister to watch the match.” Get the full story here. http://bit.ly/1yfSCSc