Transparency More Important than Breakout Limits in Iran Negotiations

June 19, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Bigger picture on breakout - “For better or worse—and probably for worse—negotiations to peacefully resolve the standoff over Iran’s nuclear program may hinge on a single technical term: ‘breakout capacity,’” write Greg Thielmann and Robert Wright for Slate. “‘Breakout capacity’ refers to the time it would take to produce enough highly enriched uranium for a nuclear weapon, should Iran at some point decide to build one.”

--“The term isn’t formally part of the negotiations that resumed in Vienna this week between Iran and the P5+1. Rather, negotiators discuss things like how many centrifuges Iran should be allowed to keep as part of a peaceful nuclear energy program. But back in Washington, when people in Congress and elsewhere argue over what constitutes an acceptable deal, they talk in terms of breakout: How much breakout capacity would Iran have if left with a given number of centrifuges, or a given amount of some other variable under negotiation?”

--“The most realistic goal in Vienna isn’t to make breakout impossible, but to make it a difficult and unattractive option for Iran. Once you see that as the goal, you realize that the gains in transparency from any likely deal—extremely close monitoring of declared facilities and the power to inspect undeclared facilities—should be at the forefront of American thinking about this problem. It would be a mistake to sacrifice such transparency in a failed attempt to reduce Iran’s breakout capacity by some arbitrary increment that is actually less valuable than many in Washington think it is,” write Thielmann and Wright. Full story here. http://slate.me/1rbjOgg

Coming together - “Drafting of the final Iran nuclear accord officially got underway [in Vienna] today (June 18), but progress on the text was limited and many substantial differences remain…The parties have formally agreed on the title of the final agreement — ‘The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action’ — Iran’s Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif said June 18, but progress on drafting the joint text beyond that was apparently halting and interrupted by consultations to narrow continued disagreements over elements of a final deal.”

--“Sources said the Iranians were somewhat frustrated that the Russians and Chinese had apparently both publicly and privately sided with others in the P5+1 on that Iran was going to have to come down on its centrifuge numbers to get a final deal. Meanwhile, the Russians and Chinese have apparently been supportive of Iran’s position that the P5+1 and United States should provide more rapid sanctions relief in a final deal.” Read the full report by Laura Rozen for Al-Monitor here. http://bit.ly/1iKqOvs

Reality setting in - “Iran is easing a key demand in negotiations with world powers over its disputed nuclear program, boosting prospects for the top-priority agreement that diplomats are racing to finish within a month,” reports Paul Richter for the Los Angeles Times. “Abbas Araqchi, Iran's deputy foreign minister, acknowledged amid a week of negotiations in Vienna that Tehran now accepts the principle that as part of the deal sanctions on its economy would be gradually eased as Iran gradually complies with limits on its nuclear activities.”

--“It's a big deal," said Cliff Kupchan, an Iran specialist at the Eurasia Group. "Iran is recognizing that lifting sanctions will be tough and take time here. Araqchi's statement lifts one barrier, a significant one, to a deal." Officials “continue to stress that many differences remain between the two sides, led by disagreements over how much sensitive nuclear equipment Iran could retain under the deal. Yet the two sides appear to have resolved several issues that at one time looked like deal-breakers.” Read the full report here. http://lat.ms/1l3eLhj

Returning to Tehran - “Britain is pressing ahead to improve relations with Iran and reopen its embassy in Tehran,” writes Steven Erlanger in The New York Times. “The decision to reopen the British Embassy is the culmination of a gradual effort to improve ties with Iran since the election of President Hassan Rouhani a year ago and a new Iranian seriousness about negotiating on the country’s contentious nuclear program.”

--“While the British Embassy opening will be modest, having a trusted ally back on the ground in Iran to report and gather intelligence will probably benefit the United States and Israel, too [according to Ellie Geranmayeh]. ‘It is also an opportunity for Iran to restore its reputation and say that we’re not only serious on the nuclear issue, but that we want to engage on global issues and the economy,’ she said.” http://nyti.ms/1piRSFN

Tweet - @NTI_GSN: U.S. Eliminates All Multiple-Warhead Nuclear Missiles http://bit.ly/1rbZ2NB

Full funding - “Despite a light rap on the knuckles of the UPF initiative at Y-12 in its introduction, a fiscal year 2015 energy & water bill OK’d by the House Appropriations Committee on Wednesday strongly supports several of the high-profile federal missions underway in Oak Ridge,” writes Darrell Richardson in the Oak Ridger. “The $34 billion appropriations bill — a $50 million reduction from the fiscal year 2014 enacted level and an increase of $327 million above the president’s request — nevertheless not only provides full funding to the UPF project itself but also funds technologies related to the Uranium Processing Facility in Oak Ridge.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1l5UDLr

Nuclear whistleblower - “Israel's top court barred a nuclear whistleblower from leaving the country over fears that he may leak more secrets,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The Israeli Supreme Court ruling was in response to Mordechai Vanunu's bid to visit the United Kingdom, where he had hoped to address British politicians and a conference organized by Amnesty International…Vanunu served nearly two decades in prison for supplying a British newspaper with details and images of Israel's Dimona nuclear facility, where he had worked as a technician.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1kRoylQ

Not quite ready - “India's first ballistic missile submarine is not yet ready for sea trials,” Global Security Newswire reports. “In January, the navy announced to much fanfare that the country's first indigenously built strategic submarine, the INS Arihant, would ‘in a few weeks’ wrap up its harbor-testing phase and then start the all-important sea trials. But months have passed since then, and the atomic-powered submarine is still not close to being ready to set out for sea.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1iolnav

Tweet - @globalzero: In 1952, the US vaporized an entire island in the Pacific Ocean for the sake of #nuclear weapons testing. #Absurd http://owl.li/ydDQO

Keeping mum - “The Air Force really, really doesn’t want to offer any new details about its Long Range Strike Bomber,” writes Colin Clark in Breaking Defense. According to an Air Force acquisition spokesperson, The Air Force is “prohibited from releasing information while in the current phase of the acquisition lifecycle. Additionally, many aspects of the program are classified in order to ensure sensitive information is protected from release to potential advisories. Future release of acquisition milestones will be considered and released as appropriate.”

--We do know that the Air Force plans “to buy somewhere between 80 and 100 aircraft,” Clark says. “They should cost about $550 million each. And a lot of the avionics and other electronics may migrate from the F-22 and F-35 to help keep costs under control.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1iKnW1B

Cruise missile speculation - “A nonproliferation expert argues in a new report that North Korea has developed a new cruise missile based on a Russian model,” reports Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. “The video confirms a surprising fact: the cruise missile is a copy of the Russian-produced Kh-35,” wrote [Jeffrey] Lewis. “These cruise missiles fly at a very high speed just above the water's surface in order to target ships.”

--“Lewis postulated the North ‘most likely’ bought the Kh-35 directly from Russia, but alternatively it might have come from a third-party nation known to have purchased the missile from Moscow. Countries that have imported the Kh-35 include Algeria, India, Vietnam and Myanmar. The latter country's military ties with North Korea have come under most suspicion by the international community.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1ictreS

Quick-hits:

--“Conflict in Iraq Adds New Angle to U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks” by David Sanger in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1piOOto

--“On Iraq, Echoes of 2003” by Nicholas Kristof in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1l5T4NH

Events:

--“The Iran Nuclear Deal and the Impacts on its Neighbors.” Discussion with Abdullah Baadood, Salah Elzein, Bijan Khajehpour, Afshin Molavi, David Ottaway, and Marina Ottaway. June 23 from 9:30-12:00 at the Wilson Center, 5th floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lsjx99

--“PONI Breakfast with Kirk Donald.” Breakfast discussion with former National Nuclear Security Administration Deputy Administrator Kirk Donald. June 26 from 9:00-10:30 at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1owrOLA

--“Toward a Comprehensive, Effective Nuclear Deal with Iran?” Discussion with Daryl Kimball, Greg Thielmann, Kelsey Davenport, and Frank von Hippel. June 26 from 10:00-12:00 at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, Choate Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1p9kz8a

--“Aegis Sea-Based Missile Defense: Present Status and Future Recommendations.” Discussion with John James, Rear Adm. James Kilby, Ron O’Rourke, Henry Cooper, and Robert Soofer. June 26 from 12:00-2:00 at SVC 201-00, Capitol Visitor Center. RSVP by email to Polly Parke at pparke@ifpa.org

Dessert:

Nucleaire Matchmaker plea - “A self-described ‘hillbilly millionaire’ has agreed to plead guilty in a scheme to extort money from the company that manages the Y-12 nuclear complex,” Global Security Newswire reports. “Adam Winters, a recent participant in the Bravo Channel's ‘Millionaire Matchmaker’ show, has formally accepted a deal to plead guilty to one charge of attempted extortion of Babcock and Wilcox, the government contractor that operates the Oak Ridge nuclear weapons site… Under the terms of the plea bargain, the federal government has agreed to not pursue a prison sentence longer than six months.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/UPXZIV