Bomber Budgets Growing, Full Cost Unclear

March 7, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Bomber budget boom - “The U.S. Air Force’s five-year plan calls for spending $11.8 billion to develop a new long-range bomber, one of the Pentagon’s top weapons projects,” writes Tony Capaccio for Bloomberg. “Development spending would more than double to $914 million in fiscal 2015 from this year,” and “steadily climb in the next several years, from $1.6 billion in fiscal 2016 to $3.5 billion in 2019,” reports Capaccio.

The Air Force plans to build as many as 100 of the bombers, for $55 billion according to earlier reports. That cost estimate is destined to increase. “Is it going to be $550 million a copy? No, of course it’s not going to be $550 million a copy once you add in everything,” said Lt. Gen. Charles Davis. Writes Capaccio, “The new bomber may cost as much as $81 billion for the 100 planes planned, 47 percent more than the $55 billion price the service has listed, analysts have said.” Full article here. http://bloom.bg/1fM7lar

Confirmed - The Senate yesterday voted 58-42 to confirm Rose Gottemoeller as Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security. “Gottemoeller has filled the position in an acting capacity since 2012, but her confirmation faced Republican opposition linked to her lead role in negotiating the New START arms-reduction treaty with Russia,” Global Security Newswire reports. http://bit.ly/1g5LWNX

--Ploughshares Fund statement: “Strong Advocate of Nuclear Security Wins Confirmation as Undersecretary of State for Arms Control” http://bit.ly/P8X8zY

Compliance and relief - “Iran will soon receive a second installment of previously frozen assets which are being returned to it under an interim nuclear agreement with world powers, the official IRNA news agency quoted its central bank chief as saying,” reports Reuters.

--In its agreement with the P5+1, “Iran agreed to suspend enrichment of uranium to 20 percent fissile concentration - a relatively short technical step away from the level required for nuclear bombs - and is taking action to neutralize its holding of the material. In return, it is gradually winning back access to $4.2 billion of its oil revenues frozen abroad, along with some other sanctions relief.” Full report here. http://reut.rs/1lFfypg

Optimism - “A senior Iranian official said on Friday that expert-level talks between Iran and six world powers on Tehran's nuclear program had been ‘substantive and useful,’” Reuters reports. Full story here. http://reut.rs/1hSXTas

Reducing NATO Nukes - “The Chicago Council on Global Affairs announced today it is partnering with Global Zero to convene a task force on NATO nuclear weapons policy to develop options for reducing nuclear weapons from Europe. The task force, which is composed of senior former ministers and officials from Europe and the United States, will develop recommendations on how to reduce the nuclear danger in Europe in time for the NATO Summit, which will convene in Wales this September. Former U.S. Secretary of State Madeleine Albright and former U.K. Foreign Secretary Sir Malcolm Rifkind are co-chairing the initiative.”

--“Budgetary pressures in the United States and Europe are compelling a fresh look at modernization decisions of nuclear weapons deployed in Europe. And significant decisions to bolster deterrence and defense capabilities and preparedness by NATO in recent years warrant a new look at how to reduce nuclear weapons in Europe.” Read the full press release from The Chicago Council on Global Affairs here. http://bit.ly/1nnNRQf

Tweet - @Cirincione: Remember anti-missile interceptors DOD swore were ready to protect us? They don't actually work. Need $2B in repairs. http://reut.rs/1kCGWnJ

Crying wolf on Iran - “The Pentagon’s announcement last month of the proposed expansion of its missile defense shield is evidence that the hype over the Iranian threat continues to spread unabated,” Travis C. Stalcup writes in The Hill. “According to Sen. Kelly Ayotte, a New Hampshire Republican, the impetus for the five-year project is Iran’s development of intercontinental missiles, which may reach operational capability as early as next year.”

--Experts disagree with the missile alarmism, warning that its unclear whether - let alone when - Iran might get an ICBM. “The argument over when and if Iran can hold American cities at risk misses the point. Even if Tehran acquired nuclear weapons, the United States already has the posture and capabilities sufficient to safeguard its territory,” writes Stalcup. Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1jZFt85

Low credibility - “The Pentagon on Wednesday said the credibility of North Korea's newest intercontinental ballistic missile is low, as the weapon has not yet been tested,” writes Rachel Oswald for Global Security Newswire. “In a congressionally mandated update on the security situation with North Korea, the Defense Department noted that the KN-08 intercontinental ballistic missile, which Pyongyang has begun displaying at military parades, should ‘be capable of reaching much of the continental United States’ -- but only if it is successfully designed and developed.”

--“ICBMs are extremely complex systems that require multiple flight tests to identify and correct design or manufacturing defects, and the Hwasong-13 [KN-08] has not been flight-tested," the Pentagon noted in an unclassified version of the report. "Without flight tests, its current reliability as a weapon system would be low." Full article here. http://bit.ly/1cBh2Ox

Nuclear security summit - “A White House official confirmed that U.S. envoys will push to establish global standards for safeguarding sensitive materials at an upcoming Nuclear Security Summit,” Sebastian Sprenger reports for Global Security Newswire. “Washington is seeking "a core group of countries" to spearhead the adoption of potentially binding rules that could help prevent atomic materials from proliferating or falling into the hands of terrorists… The core group of countries envisioned by the White House would help create an "architecture" for nuclear security… essentially lending a level of formality to what is now primarily a voluntary undertaking.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/NYYCM0

Tweet - @MattDuss: The U.S. can (and should) keep talking to Iran about nukes even while pressuring them on terrorism. http://bit.ly/1n2LnKa

UPF cost increase - “The budget request announced this week for the National Nuclear Security Administration includes a slight increase in spending for the proposed multi-billion-dollar Uranium Processing Facility at the Y-12 National Security Complex,” writes John Huotari for Oak Ridge Today. “The $335 million request for UPF in Fiscal Year 2015, which starts Oct. 1, is up slightly from $326 million in FY14. That’s roughly a 2.8 percent increase.”

--”Questions have been raised about rising cost projections and a redesign of the UPF. In February 2013, the NNSA said the redesign could add $539 million to the project cost and extend its schedule,” Huotari says. Get the full piece here. http://bit.ly/1ijlkMK

Worrying about Japanese Plutonium - “China, Amano, and Japan’s Plutonium.” Read the full piece from Mark Hibbs for Arms Control Wonk here. http://bit.ly/1f1kNfs

Events:

--“Iran Nuclear Deal: Breakthrough or Failure?” Discussion with Robert Einhorn, Karim Sadjadpour, and Bret Stephens, and Reuel Gerecht. March 11 from 5:00-7:00 at George Washington University, Jack Morton Auditorium, 805 21st St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1hFYrQn

--“Nuclear Security and Japan’s Plutonium Path.” Discussion with Douglas Birch, Jeffrey Smith, Matthew Bunn, and Ambassador Nobuyasu Abe; moderated by Robert Einhorn. March 14 from 1:30-3:00 at Brookings, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1jRpx7P