Nuclear Budget Hikes Defy Strategic, Fiscal Realities

March 6, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Budgets don’t reflect strategic realities - “The Obama Administration's recent budget requests are perfect examples of our backwards thinking. With the defense and military budget at a critical crossroads, the Pentagon has inexplicably shielded nuclear weapons from cuts. This year, the Administration is requesting a seven percent increase to the National Nuclear Security Administration's Weapons Activities account, increasing this line item to a staggering $8.31 billion. Meanwhile, nonproliferation programs are on the chopping block, with programs such as the Global Threat Reduction Initiative being cut by 30 percent. More weapons and less nonproliferation is not a plan for the future,” writes Rep. Mike Quigley (D-IL) in The Huffington Post

--“Two decades since the end of the Cold War and more than a dozen years since September 11th, our outdated nuclear weapons policy is an anchor dragging down our military - -wasting money on yesterday's Cold War threats while ignoring today's 21st century security needs...Our stockpile of nearly 2,100 deployed warheads is not only irrelevant for today's threats but also unsustainable.”

--“As Congress debates nuclear policy, both deficit and defense hawks should agree on building a sound, practical plan to reduce our nuclear stockpile -- keeping only what we absolutely need, at a cost taxpayers can afford.” Full piece here. http://huff.to/P4rFPE

Budget summary: Below are budget figures from select nuclear weapons programs, as presented in the recently released highlights of the President’s budget request for FY2015. We’ll update this list in a week or so with detailed data from the request, once it’s made available.

Dept. of Defense
--Ohio-class Replacement Submarine: $1.28 Billion requested for FY15, an increase of $143.7 million from the FY14 request.
--B61 Tail Kit Assembly: $198.4 million requested for FY15, an increase of $165.4 million from the FY14 request.
--Trident II D% Modernization Program: $1.5 billion requested for FY15, an increase of $63.8 million from the FY14 request.
--Ground Based Midcourse Defense Program: $1.0 billion requested for FY15, an increase of $93 million from the FY14 request. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/NXTibR

Dept. of Energy
--Total Weapons Activities Programs: $8.3 billion requested for FY15, an increase of of $533.9 million from FY14 enacted.
--Directed Stockpile Work: $2.7 billion requested for FY15, an increase of $304.6 million from FY14 enacted.
--Total Defense Nuclear Nonproliferation Programs: $1.6 billion requested for FY15, a decrease of $398.8 million from FY14 enacted. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1kAQVdg

Budget Highlights - With its latest budget request, the Obama administration “sent a clear signal that the administration is focusing on maintaining the U.S. nuclear weapons stockpile while devoting fewer resources to preventing terrorists from acquiring nuclear materials,” writes Stephen Young for All Things Nuclear. “The choice is particularly noteworthy in light of the administration’s 2010 Nuclear Posture Review, which explicitly placed ‘preventing nuclear proliferation and nuclear terrorism’ as the first objective of U.S. nuclear policy.” Full analysis here. http://bit.ly/1gcHolc

Tweet - @DavidCulpDC: Rose @Gottemoeller was confirmed 58 to 42 to be Under Sec. of State by Senate this morning, after 541 days.

Lowballed - “The US Air Force’s top military acquisition officer expects the cost of the new long-range strike bomber to exceed an expected per-unit cost limit — but indicated that has been part of the planning process,” writes Aaron Mehta for Defense News. “Is it going to be $550 million a copy? No, of course it’s not going to be $550 million a copy once you add in everything,” according to the Pentagon official.

--The $550 million figure “has long been held up by service officials as a figure that should not be exceeded in order to avoid the kind of excess costs that have plagued other major procurement projects, such as the F-35 joint strike fighter. Outside analysts, particularly in the non-proliferation world, have questioned whether that figure is realistic,” says Mehta. Full article here. http://bit.ly/1lBFFxg

Nuclear security efforts hampered - “U.S. Energy Department efforts to secure vulnerable nuclear materials in Russia have stalled following the expiration of a long-held agreement with Moscow last summer,” reports Douglas P. Guarino for Global Security Newswire. “The now-tenuous situation in neighboring Ukraine may further delay the initiatives.”

--Furthermore “A summary of the 2015 budget proposal, released Tuesday, attributed a planned 27 percent cut to the International Material Protection and Cooperation program in part on the expiration of the Cooperative Threat Reduction umbrella agreement… Arms control advocates are criticizing the Obama budget plan, which on the whole would cut Energy Department nonproliferation efforts by 20 percent, while at the same time boosting the agency's spending on nuclear weapons by nearly 7 percent. The nuclear-weapons programs would receive $8.3 billion, while the nonproliferation efforts would receive $1.6 billion.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1mZ1zMu

MOX’s timely demise - “Tuesday’s White House budget proposal for the Energy Department contained this controversial detail: The administration wants to put the mixed oxide (MOX) fuel fabrication facility in Aiken, S.C., into what the department called ‘cold standby,’” writes Steven Mufson in The Washington Post. Critics say the facility, which would convert plutonium from surplus nuclear weapons into commercial reactor fuel, “doesn’t make economic sense -- the program has already cost up to $5 billion -- and that it would increase terrorism or accident risks.”

--“The program has been able to putter along burning through billions of dollars because it’s had some powerful political patrons,” though “this isn’t the first time the Obama administration has signaled its lack of enthusiasm for the MOX plant. ‘This current plutonium disposition approach may be unaffordable, though, due to cost growth and fiscal pressure,’” according to last year’s budget proposal from the administration. Read the full article here.http://wapo.st/1gUIT9m

Progress made - “U.S. and Iranian diplomats said they made progress toward resolution of the decade-old conflict over the Persian Gulf nation’s nuclear work,” writes Jonathan Tirone for Bloomberg. “The International Atomic Energy Agency’s 35-member board of governors concluded two days of talks about Iran [Wednesday] in Vienna. Technical experts are holding parallel meetings in the Austrian capital where they’re hammering out details of a possible final accord.” Read the full piece here. http://bloom.bg/1ou7ncj

Report - “Military and Security Developments Involving the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea” by the Office of the Secretary of Defense. Annual report to Congress. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1icWkXq

Action against North Korea - “The United States is asking the U.N. Security Council to take action against North Korea for firing two rounds of ballistic missiles in the past week in ‘clear and calculated violations’ of U.N. sanctions,” sending a “report by the United States to the council committee monitoring sanctions against North Korea,” writes Edith Lederer for AP. “The sanctions committee will consider the U.S. report and decide whether to recommend action by the Security Council.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1qbiHxO

Russia to conduct more missile tests - “According to an announcement posted on the ministry of defense of Kazakhstan's web site, Russia will conduct a total of three tests of its ICBMs from Kapustin Yar to Sary Shagan… After the launch conducted on March 4, 2014, two more launches are expected in March.” Full report from Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces here. http://bit.ly/NB3Lu2

Events:

--“Iran Nuclear Deal: Breakthrough or Failure?” Discussion with Robert Einhorn, Karim Sadjadpour, and Bret Stephens, and Reuel Gerecht. March 11 from 5:00-7:00 at George Washington University, Jack Morton Auditorium, 805 21st St. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1hFYrQn

--“Nuclear Security and Japan’s Plutonium Path.” Discussion with Douglas Birch, Jeffrey Smith, Matthew Bunn, and Ambassador Nobuyasu Abe; moderated by Robert Einhorn. March 14 from 1:30-3:00 at Brookings, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1jRpx7P

Dessert:

Tweet - @TheBaseLeg: Because everyone needs to have their own intercontinental nuclear-capable strategic bomber! via @stock_jaryd http://bit.ly/1g36Hdl