Reports Intensify on Israeli Decision Over Striking Iran

On the radar: Why it’s still a bad idea; Declaration on talks; Oversight at the labs; Deterrence not just about nukes; a Park for the bomb; the Headaches of the India deal; Deterrence and PGS; and Russia bombers headed to Louisiana.

July 13, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke

7 reasons not to strike - Israel’s decision whether to strike Iran’s nuclear facilities seems imminent, according to a frenzy of reports and news analysis over the weekend. Jeffrey Goldberg at does not know what’s actually going to happen in the coming weeks, but writes, “ this seems like an opportune moment to once again list the many reasons why an Israeli strike on Iran's nuclear facilities is a bad idea.”

--His top seven reasons: 1) Innocent people will die; 2) Strikes might not work; 3) Successful strikes might only delay Iran; 4) an Israeli strike could rally regional support for Iran; 5) a Strike could trigger overt war; 6) a Unilateral strike could harm the U.S.-Israel relationship; and 7) an Israel strike could compromise President Obama’s firm position on preventing Iran from getting a nuclear weapon. Full list at The Atlantic. http://bit.ly/PR4oIM

The media frenzy - Laura Rozen at Al Monitor captured Israeli media stories from the intensifying debate over striking Iran. Read Rozen’s analysis here. http://bit.ly/Onm305

Tweet - @ColinKahl: Is Israeli talk of new intel & Iran strike w/in wks a bluff to incr pressure? W/sanctions peaked & diplo stalled, it's more likely real.

Israel declaring talks failed - Israel’s Deputy Foreign Minister Danny Ayalon called for an international declaration that diplomatic talks with Iran have failed. Jodi Rudoren for The New York Times has the story. http://nyti.ms/NbHL31

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Report - “Major U.S. Sting Operation Arrests Iranian in Nuclear Smuggling Network” by David Albright and Andrea Stricker. (pdf) http://bit.ly/P7MJkm

DOE oversight - Some in Congress are pushing proposals that would relax federal oversight for the safety and security at the nuclear weapons labs. Yet, as the recent break-in at Y-12 shows, too much oversight might not be the labs’ problem.

--“It should be clear by now that the current culture at DOE and its semi-autonomous National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA) is to take their orders from contractors and provide little or no oversight,” write Peter Stockton and Lydia Dennett for POGO in a blog on management of the nuclear labs. http://bit.ly/RHdug1

But can they keep the park secure? - There’s a proposal in Congress that would designate Manhattan Project sites at Los ALamos, Hanford, and Oak Ridge as national parks. The Washington Post says “That’s a fine idea.” http://wapo.st/QWQxW9

Tweet - @Gottemoeller: Great ideas and discussions at last week's @US_Stratcom Deterrence Symposium. Here are my remarks: http://1.usa.gov/SecRIi

Deterrence is evolving - The saliency of nuclear weapons is waning as large arsenals reduce and the norm of not testing persists. While deterrence strategies remain salient, the weight of its constituent elements is shifting for countries with nuclear weapons. “The economic element of deterrence is growing as the nuclear element is declining, with prominent exceptions,” writes Michael Krepon at Arms Control Wonk.

--”Will nuclear weapons become more or less influential in the emerging international security environment? Given this mixed picture, it depends. It depends mostly on China and whether the Iranian nuclear program will have cascade effects.” http://bit.ly/NbzrA4

Tweet - @ReutersIran: Two earthquakes in Iran kill 300 and injure 5,000 http://reut.rs/Nbtpjb

Forces of status quo - “The Cold War is over, but we still have Cold War thinking, Cold War levels of defense spending, and Cold War nukes. Why?” asks James Carroll for the Boston Globe. His answer: the nuclear arsenal has strong bureaucratic momentum, and even serving Air Force chiefs or sitting Presidents would find difficulty reversing it. http://b.globe.com/MrDhZ6

Nuclear for nothing - “Boosting strategic ties with India by offering it nuclear technology may have looked like a win-win idea [in 2005], but thus far the payoff to the U.S. nuclear industry has not materialized and the headache of dealing with Pakistan's burgeoning nuclear arsenal is getting worse,” writes Tom Hundley at Foreign Policy.

--Tagline: “The U.S. opened the door to nuclear trade with India -- and got nothing.” http://bit.ly/QX4W4U

FAS on PGS - “In some limited scenarios, such as escalation, [Prompt Global Strike] capabilities might enhance deterrence by providing senior leaders with additional non-nuclear options for signaling or striking. But it is hard to predict, to say the least. In other scenarios they may do exactly the opposite and weaken deterrence by triggering use-it-or-loose-it postures and deepen nuclear competition.”

--Remarks by Hans Kristensen at the USSTRATCOM Deterrence Symposium 2012. http://bit.ly/TyRbZT

Bomber exchange - The U.S. and Russia are sending bombers at each other - as part of a peaceful military exchange program. Russian Tu-95 Bear bombers are soon to land at Barksdale AFB in Louisiana. U.S. B-52s are also headed to Engels Air Base in Russia. Mark Thompson at TIME has the story. http://ti.me/On6SUM