The False Inevitability of War with Iran

On the radar: Iran war not inevitable; Spector on securing Syria’s weapons; GAO on missile defense; New House NDAA; Uranium shipped to Tehran reactor; Iranian officials on ship reactors; and State works on declassifying nuke info.

July 23, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

Enmity - The U.S. and Iran have been trapped in a “paradigm of enmity” over the past decade, creating a sense of inevitability about a U.S.-Iran conflict, writes Trita Parsi in The Diplomat.

--”The last ten years appear as a slow-motion prequel to a pre-destined outcome: War. While structural factors have helped push the two actors towards confrontation, there has never been anything inevitable about this conflict. Rather, a long series of miscalculated escalations have brought the two states to the current deadlock,” writes Parsi. Full-story here. http://bit.ly/NCVqkG

Quote - “You don't need thousands of these weapons. A couple hundred, frankly, could take out Iran and almost any country you can imagine. So, again, we can't afford to do everything. We are in an era where we're dealing with terrorists, and we need to have special forces that can be utilized. We need to have these very effective drones. We need to look at the threats that are out there today and equip our military accordingly.” - Appropriations Committee Ranking Member Norm Dicks (D-WA). Read the transcript here. http://1.usa.gov/PApIGK

Syria - Leonard Spector addressed how to minimize the dangers posed by Syria’s military assets, particularly Syria’s large chemical weapons stockpile, in testimony to the House Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation and Trade.

--Spector urges the U.S. to start negotiating monitoring and security arrangements now for chemical weapon sites that the Free Syrian Army seizes. “Access to sites would be negotiated with the Free Syrian Army for facilities within territory it controlled and, clandestinely, with site managers for facilities nominally remaining within Assad's chain of command. If successfully executed, conditions on the ground will establish the presumption that the arsenal must be eliminated before a new government can revert to Syria's traditional stance. Read the full testimony here. http://bit.ly/ObpRzw

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Delays - A new GAO report warns that U.S. missile defense efforts will face “serious delays” if management is not improved. The five systems examined have unreliable or inefficient cost efforts and timetables, according to the report. Aaron Mehta at iWatch News reviews the report here. http://bit.ly/NZcDXP

Report - Full GAO report here. http://1.usa.gov/LHQRT6

Warped - The House version of the NDAA passed on July 19, decreases the base budget by $1.1 billion from the committee version, due to an amendment added by Reps. Mulvaney (R-SC) and Barney Frank (D-MA), but still provides $2 billion more than the Pentagon requested, writes Kingston Reif in The Nukes of Hazard.

--”Despite voting to cut the Pentagon topline, the House continued its warped infatuation with nuclear weapons and missile defense. At the same time that key House Republicans are complaining about cuts to the military budget jeopardizing our response to current threats, they insist on wasting money to sustaining an excessively large nuclear arsenal designed to confront Cold War threats,” writes Reif. http://bit.ly/P1OG0X

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: The Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation has a new website. Check it out here: armscontrolcenter.org/

Fuel - Iran sent a fourth batch of 20 percent enriched uranium to its medical reactor in Tehran yesterday, before the next round of technical talks on its enrichment activities starts later this month. Reuter’s has the story. http://reut.rs/ObAMcv

Ships - Meanwhile, an Iranian nuclear official was quoted in the Iranian news as saying the country is “capable” of enriching to levels high enough to fuel reactors for ships but is not planning to at this time. There seems to be a push from the government to so however, a parliamentary committee has approved measures “requiring the government to design nuclear-powered merchant ships and provide them with nuclear fuel.” The Washington Post has the story. http://wapo.st/PyUkov

Tweet - @FAScientistSecrecy News: Some Nuclear Weapons-Related Info to be Declassified http://bit.ly/M5NVpB