Obama at UN: Nuclear Edition

On the radar: POTUS at UNGA; Adm. Mullen talks dyad; Triad “outlived its usefulness”; Hikers headed home; Russian reactions to faulty missile defenses; Sestak on the military option; Adm. Mullen calls for a line to Iran; Not so fast on Iran breakout potential; and loading a B-52 in 30 hours or less.

September 21, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Obama at the UN - “To lift the specter of mass destruction, we must come together to pursue the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons,” said President Obama at the UN this morning. Up next for U.S. efforts to those ends: The U.S. and Russia “are pursuing talks on how to achieve deeper reductions,” noted the President. “America will continue to work for a ban on the testing of nuclear weapons, and the production of fissile material needed to make them.”

--As for Iran and North Korea, “There is a future of greater opportunity for the people of these nations if their governments meet their obligations. But if they continue down a path that is outside international law, they must be met with greater pressure and isolation. That is what our commitment to peace demands.” http://ow.ly/6AGsQ

Mullen sees a dyad “at some point” - Asked about the possibility of eliminating one leg of the nuclear triad, outgoing Chairman of the JCS Adm. Michael Mullen said, “At some point in time, that triad becomes very, very expensive, you know, obviously, the smaller your nuclear arsenal is. And it's -- so at some point in time, in the future, certainly I think a decision will have to be made in terms of whether we keep the triad or drop it down to a dyad.”

--”I didn't see us near that in this recent -- over the last couple of years, with respect to the New START. But I spent enough time to know, at some point, that is going to be the case.” http://ow.ly/6ACZI (pdf)

Put another way - “The triad is a Cold War construct that has outlived its usefulness and now only offers illusory hedges against Strangelovian fantasy attacks at a cost of billions of dollars annually,” writes Mark Thompson for TIME’s “Battleland” in response to Air Force Secretary Michael Donley’s comments on the triad at the Air Force Association’s annual gathering.

-- “It would be bracing for someone in a position of authority to tell the weapons-peddlers at the AFA gathering that the Cold War is over, and that an economically ailing America could do with a nuclear dyad. That would be a refreshingly rare example of leadership. After all, even a fool only needs suspenders and a belt to keep his pants from falling down.” http://ow.ly/6AERU

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Hikers released - Two American hikers who had been imprisoned in Iran for two years have been released, after a very public political spat between Khamenei, Ahmadinejad and Iran’s judiciary.

--On the political significance for the Iranian regime, Vali Nasr notes “[Ahmadinejad] is a weakened president and they are perfectly comfortable embarrassing him. It is a signal that it is perfectly O.K. to attack him, and you might get brownie points for doing it.” From The New York Times. http://ow.ly/6ACGd

Upsetting the Reset - “Even a missile defense system that could be rendered ineffective could still elicit serious concern from cautious Russian planners,” write Yousaf Butt and Ted Postol in a new FAS report, “Upsetting the Reset: The Technical Basis of Russian Concern Over NATO Missile Defense.”

--”The planned [Phased Adaptive Approach] missile defense system will pressure national security circles within Russia and China to attempt to compensate for the perceived challenge to their nuclear strategic forces.” http://ow.ly/6AHVz (pdf)

The dangers of military strikes on Iran - A military strike against Iran “is not a responsible option in terms of offering a solution to the problem, certainly not without opening up even more challenges to our national security,” said Adm. Joe Sestak at an event sponsored by the Arms Control Association. Ali Gharib’s analysis and the event video here. http://ow.ly/6zYYz

Mullen on Iran - Diplomatic, military, political - any channel of communication with Iran “would be terrific,” said JCS Chairman Adm. Mullen at an event yesterday. “Even in the darkest days of the Cold War, we had links to the Soviet Union. We are not talking to Iran, so we don’t understand each other,” Mullen said. “If something happens, it’s virtually assured that we won’t get it right.” http://ow.ly/6AyMQ

--The event video and transcript are available here. http://ow.ly/6AA21

No speedy breakout from “problem-plagued Natanz” - A recent estimate that Iran could enrich enough weapon-grade material for one bomb in two months is flawed, according to an new analysis from ISIS. “Most estimates of breakout time at the Natanz Fuel Enrichment Plant (FEP) exceed six months.” http://ow.ly/6zXbY

North and South talks - North and South Koreas’ nuclear envoys met in Beijing to discuss returning to disarmament negotiations. No breakthough resulted, but the possibility of future talks remains open. From AP. http://ow.ly/6AFaw

Making The CTBT’s Valuable Benefits Permanent - The entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty may not be just around the corner. In the mean time, Michael Krepon argues for an intermediate step: making the global services generated by the treaty, especially the powerful global monitoring system, permanent rather than provisional. http://ow.ly/6zUsy

30 hours and four attempts - That is what it took for a B-52 crew to attach nuclear cruise missiles to a bomber and get it ready to fly - and the bomb wing still passed inspection. That 2007 incident was just one of a series nuclear readiness mishaps that led the Air Force to take a tougher stance on enforcing safety standards. Danger Room reports. http://ow.ly/6AEs6