Editorials Warn Against Military Option, Support Sanctions

On the radar: NYT, Wash Post, and USA Today on next steps with Iran; Smarter, not broader, sanctions; Military option has little effect; Romney’s war prep; Pillar on the IAEA report; Nukes in your backyard; Evangelicals for nuclear cuts; Replicating successes of Iran diplomacy; and Inside a defunct Soviet sub base.

November 10, 2011 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

NYT says “strikes would be a disaster” - “We’re not sure any mix of sanctions and inducements can wean Tehran of its nuclear ambitions,” says a New York Times editorial. But “we are sure that a military attack would be a disaster.”

--“A military strike would not set back Iran’s program for very long. It would rally Iranians around their illegitimate government. And it would produce a huge anti-Israeli and anti-American backlash around the world — whether or not Washington had tried to stop it.”

--A new round of tougher sanctions by the UNSC - including Russia and China - is the way to go, the editorial concludes. http://owl.li/7pgXl

Wash Post says go for sanctions - The Washington Post agrees that a military strike is not the right option: “We continue to regard that as a last resort, and one that is not now justified.” The ed board argues that current sanctions “have not succeeded in changing the regime’s intentions or stopping its work,” and recommends unilateral efforts, including sanctions on Iran’s central bank.

--Fears that tougher sanctions would cause a spike in oil prices and damage the global economy are justified, the board says. But “if Iran is to be stopped without the use of military force, the president, and the country, should be willing to bear some economic pain.” http://owl.li/7ph53

USA Today says there’s time for other options - Sanctions might be an optimistic strategy, but they’re “better than the alternative,” writes USA Today. “The list of potential consequences of an attack is as lengthy as it is troubling...An attack also might fail.”

--”Regardless, the need to choose between two bad options — a pre-emptive attack or a nuclear-armed Iran — still appears a ways off. The IAEA report is fresh reason to pursue all other options until the choice is unavoidable.” http://owl.li/7phL0

Effects of sanctions - According to a new report from the Atlantic Council’s Iran Task Force, sanctions have forced Iran to turn to barter with China, though they may not have convinced Iran to halt its nuclear activities. Targeted, not tougher, sanctions are should be the next step, the report concludes. “There are limits on how ready even US allies will be to embrace more US-imposed sanctions against Iran, especially sweeping measures that are seen as punishing the Iranian people and contributing to higher oil prices.”

--“For the time being, the US should focus on better implementation of measures already in place to bolster that coalition, rather than enacting new sanctions that could fracture the global consensus on Iran.” (pdf) http://owl.li/7phsD

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DOD: airstrikes would only delay - “Air strikes against suspected Iranian nuclear facilities would delay a weapons program by at most three years, according to intelligence assessments that have been consistent since 2009, according to a U.S. defense official.” Bloomberg’s Tony Capaccio reports. http://owl.li/7phoz

Romney chimes in - “Si vis pacem, para bellum. That is a Latin phrase, but the ayatollahs will have no trouble understanding its meaning from a Romney administration: If you want peace, prepare for war,” writes Mitt Romney in the Wall Street Journal. Of his war preparations offered: more sanctions, carrier groups in the Med and Gulf, and more military assistance to Israel. http://owl.li/7ph8b

More hawkery - The IAEA report has conservative hawks ramping up the rhetoric. Ali Gharib has a round-up of the latest calls for war. http://owl.li/7ph6Y

The IAEA’s Yawner - The IAEA report told us little we didn’t already know about Iran’s nuclear program, but you’d never know that from what the pundits are saying. “The latest round in the national discourse about Iran contains several gaping holes, the biggest of which is any serious and careful consideration of what danger an Iranian nuclear weapon supposedly would pose,” writes Paul Pillar. http://owl.li/7ph9v

The Nuclear Bombs in Your Backyard - Ever wondered where the US keeps its nukes? Adam Weinstein and Tasneem Raja of Mother Jones have it all mapped out - nuclear weapons, plants, and labs in the continental US. http://owl.li/7phkZ

Iran’s power on the wane? - Details on Iran’s nuclear report notwithstanding, “some analysts argue that overall, Iran represents less of a threat today than it did a year ago.” They cite regional rivalries with Saudi Arabia, domestic unrest in Syria, political divisions in Iran, and technological setbacks to the nuclear program as evidence of Iran’s overall weakness. NPR’s Alan Greenblatt reports. http://owl.li/7phge

Evangelicals for nuke cuts - “The National Association of Evangelicals is calling for greater precautions with nuclear weapons and a renewed effort toward disarmament,” reports the Salt Lake Times. “The resolution calls for taking a second look at the Cold War doctrine of deterrence in light of shifting global politics, and challenges the United States to pursue new negotiations with Russia and other nuclear countries.” http://owl.li/7phij

Time for diplomacy - “The one big thing this report tells us is that there is still time to resolve the Iranian nuclear crisis,” writes Ali Vaez in The Atlantic.

--“Why not try to reproduce [past] diplomacy-driven successes? If Iran is provided with guarantees that it will not be penalized for admitting to its past transgressions, it might be more willing to open up to greater IAEA scrutiny, which could help the world understand what threats it is and is not facing from Iran. A similar approach worked well in Libya and could work in Iran as well.” http://owl.li/7piNu

Inside a Soviet underground sub base -Take Gizmodo’s video tour of a secret underground nuclear sub base in Ukraine. The complex, now a museum, was used to dock and fix submarines during the Cold War. http://owl.li/7pknN