With 34th Senate Vote, Obama Secures Iran Nuclear Accord

All sizzle no steak - “Determined foes of President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran had vowed to use August to fire up public opposition and to build a bipartisan majority in Congress to sink the landmark pact,” write Paul Richter and Lisa Mascaro for the Los Angeles Times. “Instead, the effort fizzled. The result gave a boost to a White House that has often had rocky relations with even fellow Democrats on Capitol Hill and an unaccustomed defeat to Washington’s pro-Israel lobbying groups, which are often regarded as among the Capitol’s most effective interest groups.”

--“The deal’s survival was in effect sealed Wednesday when Barbara Mikulski (D-Md.) gave the White House a crucial 34th Senate backer. That’s enough to ensure that even if Congress passes a resolution to disapprove the agreement, Obama would have sufficient votes to uphold a veto.” Several factors led to the opposition’s failure, including a miscalculation of public interest in the debate and the rise of Donald Trump’s presidential campaign. Iran specialists, however, said “‘the deal turned out to be good enough’ to survive the political market. The administration was effective in raising the question: ‘What’s the alternative?’” Read the full story here. http://lat.ms/1N3w52Q

Tweet - @TheIranDeal: ACT: Three women negotiators made history in securing the #IranDeal. Read about the vital roles they played → http://bbc.in/1KT2oCo

Destroyers of hope - On Wednesday Secretary of State John Kerry delivered an impassioned speech defending the Iran nuclear accord, saying those struggling to block the agreement were “destroyers of hope.” Kerry asked the audience, “What do you think will happen to that multilateral sanctions regime that brought Iran to the bargaining table in the first place?... Not only will we lose the momentum that we have built up in pressing Iran to limit its nuclear activities, we will almost surely start moving in the opposite direction.

--“Rejecting this agreement would not be sending a signal of resolve to Iran; it would be broadcasting a message so puzzling most people across the globe would find it impossible to comprehend… There is no way to guarantee that Iran will keep its word. That’s why this isn’t based on a promise or trust. But we can guarantee that if Iran decides to break the agreement, it will regret breaking any promise that it has made.” Full video and transcript of the speech here. http://1.usa.gov/1NcBQgg

A done deal - On Wednesday, Sen. Barbara Mikulski of Maryland “became the 34th senator to announce support for the proposed Iran nuclear deal, providing the White House the firewall it needs against Republican efforts to kill the agreement... Senator Mikulski [stated] she was backing the agreement despite its shortcomings because it was ‘the best option available to block Iran from having a nuclear bomb.’” Read more in the Los Angeles Times here. http://lat.ms/1KLE8kB

India’s nuclear posture shift - “With several long-range ballistic missiles in development, the Indian nuclear posture is entering an important new phase,” writes Hans Kristensen and Robert Norris. After nearly two decades of focusing on nuclear competition with Pakistan, New Delhi seems to now be paying attention to its future strategic relationship with China.” Read more at Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists here.http://bit.ly/1IN3hp7

Confessions of a nuclear wonk - “In late February, President Obama asked me to join Secretary of State John Kerry in the P5+1-Iran negotiations as lead U.S. negotiator for the nuclear dimensions of an agreement that would verifiably prevent Iran from having nuclear weapons,” writes Ernest Moniz for Medium. “For many, the inevitable question was ‘why is the Secretary of Energy engaged in highly sensitive, high-stakes diplomacy, on an issue of critical importance to the United States and our allies in the troubled Middle East, with a country at the root of many of those troubles?’”

--“The answer lies in the fact that the agreement — the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) — is built upon a foundation of deep nuclear science and technology in both limiting Iran’s nuclear program and introducing necessary verification measures — and the Department of Energy (DOE) is the principal steward of American nuclear security science and technology expertise… Indeed, the decades of nuclear security experience and ingenuity of this dedicated workforce forms the foundation on which our confidence in the effectiveness of the agreement rests.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1LXc3Z5

Tweet - @SenSanders : The test of a great nation is not how many wars it can engage in but how it can resolve conflicts in a peaceful manner. #IranDeal

Iran Deal FAQ - “In response to the many inquiries we have received about the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) over the course of the past several weeks, the Arms Control Association has compiled the following brief responses to the most frequently asked questions,” write Kelsey Davenport and Daryl G. Kimball. This comprehensive set of questions explains everything from President Obama’s mythologized policy shift to how ballistic missile sanctions made it onto the negotiating table. Full Q & A from the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/1EC3D6N

Tweet - @tparsi : Thank you @MoveOn, @CREDOMobile, @plough_shares, @FCNL, @WinWithoutWar, @Lara_APN, @jstreetdotorg, @ArmsControlNow + many more! #IranDeal

Quick Hits:

--“First Nuclear Map of Our Planet,” from The New Zealand Herald. http://bit.ly/1LXeIBS

--“Who Supports the Iran Nuclear Agreement?” from the Arms Control Association. http://bit.ly/1L4WAjO

Events:

--“Limiting Non-Strategic Nuclear Weapons: Results of a Track II Dialogue,” featuring Sharon Squassoni, Andrew Kuchins, Steven Pifer, Guy Roberts and Col. Jeff MaCausland (ret.). Friday, September 4th from 9:00 - 11:00 AM at CSIS, Second Floor Conference Room 212-B, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1IEd7cE

--“The Iran Nuclear Deal is a Win for Nuclear Nonproliferation and Security: A Discussion on the Impact and the Next Steps,” featuring Colin Kahl, Ellie Geranmayeh, George Perkovich and Kelsey Davenport. Tuesday, September 8th from 9:00 - 11:00 AM at Carnegie Endowment, Choate Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1IEh8xV

--“The Iran Nuclear Agreement: Now or Never,” featuring Samuel Berger, Thomas Pickering, Joseph Cirincione and Ali Vaez. Tuesday, September 8th from 1:00 - 3:00 PM at 236 Russell Senate Office Building, Washington, DC. RSVP by email to Ben Kaufman: bkaufman@crisisgroup.org or Geoff Wilson: gwilson@ploughshares.org.

--“How Europe Will Respond to the Iran Nuclear Agreement,” featuring Jean-Marie Guehenno, Wolfgang Ischinger, Suzanne Maloney and Cornelius Adebahr. Wednesday, September 9th from 12:15 - 1:45 PM at Carnegie Endowment, Choate Room, 1779 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://ceip.org/1O5Prmq

--“Emerging Missile Defense and SMDC Requirements,” featuring Lt. Gen. David Mann, Commander U.S. Army Space and Missile Defense Command. Wednesday, September 16th from 8:00 - 9:00 AM at Capitol Hill Club, 300 First Street SE, Washington, DC. RSVP here. http://conta.cc/1Iu22Qe

--“Conference on the Enduring Value of Nuclear Deterrence,” featuring Gen. Robin Rand, Lt. Gen. Jack Weinstein, Gen. Larry Welch (ret.), Gen. Robert Kehler (ret.), Frank Miller and Vice Adm. Terry Benedict. Thursday, September 17th from 7:30 AM - 1:40 PM at the Capitol Hill Club, 300 First Street SE, Washington, DC. RSVP by email: lisam@minotchamber.org.

Dessert:

Nuclear Proliferation Explained - “To help reduce you to a state of constant panic about a hypothetical doomsday scenario you have no ability to control, we now present: The Onion Explains: Nuclear Proliferation.” http://onion.com/1fIA9rX