Resolving Arms Control Disputes with Russia

January 5, 2015 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Russia and the INF - While U.S.-Russia relations soured over Ukraine, the editors of The New York Times note that “tensions have also been brewing over compliance with a number of arms control treaties that for decades have been vital to keeping the peace between the two nuclear powers and setting an example for other countries.” The most important being the 1987 Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty, which the U.S. accuses Russia of violating by flight testing a new cruise missile.

--“Despite the dispute, it would be a huge mistake for the United States to withdraw from the I.N.F. treaty, as some congressmen have demanded. That would remove all restraints on Russia and seriously weaken a system of treaties that has been remarkably effective over decades at curbing the spread of destructive weapons. It would also be a mistake for either side to reintroduce the banned weapons onto their own territory or elsewhere.”

--“The United States and its allies should make efforts to bring Russia back into compliance with the treaty, and Russia needs to know that defiance will come at a cost.” Read the full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/17d0RVT

--See Also: “US and Russia in danger of returning to era of nuclear rivalry,” by Julian Borger in The Guardian. http://bit.ly/1KdiFj2

Nuclear referendum - “President Hassan Rouhani has threatened to hold an unprecedented referendum in Iran as he warned hardline opponents of a nuclear deal with the west that the country must end its international isolation.” As Najmeh Bozorgmehr and Monavar Khalaj report for the Financial Times, Rouhani said he was looking at the possibility of using his constitutional rights to give power to the people in comments that some analysts took as a warning that he may try to put any nuclear agreement to a public vote.” Full story here. http://on.ft.com/13SS4GD

State of play on talks - On Friday, reports surfaced that the United States and Iran had “tentatively agreed on a formula” to limit Tehran’s nuclear weapons capability by shipping fissile material to Russia. As George Jahn reported for the Associated Press, negotiators also drew up for the first time “a catalog outlining areas of potential accord and differing approaches to remaining disputes.” Full story here. http://abcn.ws/1DcFeQ2

--See also: “Iran denied on Saturday that it had reached an agreement with the United States to ship its surplus enriched uranium to Russia under new concessions,” reports Mehrdad Balali for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1xKgArs

It’s the economy - During a speech to 1,500 economists in Tehran on Sunday, Hassan Rouhani said that Iran needed to “end its political isolation to allow its economy to grow.”

--Rouhani said that “agreeing to halt some uranium enrichment – which can create both reactor fuel and weapons – should not be construed as having ‘compromised our principles and cause... Our cause is not linked to a centrifuge. It is connected to our heart and to our willpower.’” Read the full story from Rahim Mostaghim and Molly Hennessy-Fiske for the Los Angeles Times. http://lat.ms/1DaiNhj

Falling exports - Iran’s oil exports have fallen 60 percent to 1 million barrels a day according to Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Namdar Zanganeh. Full coverage by Ladane Nasseri and Bruce Stanley for Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1Ig91sa

Tweet - @Cirincione: Pope Breaks Ground in Seeking Abolition of Nuclear Weapons - http://bit.ly/1tD6voY

Sanctions coming - “Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) signaled Sunday that lawmakers could increase sanctions against Iran if nuclear negotiations do not yield an agreement. Corker, who will become the Senate Foreign Relations Committee chairman in the next Congress, said on ‘Fox News Sunday’ that there was ‘no question’ that lawmakers would increase sanctions against Iran.” Full story by Kevin Cirilli in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1wbLvqy

Tweet - @jabdi: Corker doesnt want sanctions 2 blow up Iran talks, but own proposal more risky. Hope smart compromise still possible http://fxn.ws/1xKF3JW

Geopolitics of a deal - The United States will never be free of Middle East chaos, but if it can employ a new relationship with Iran to add a measure of regional stability, it can over time shift more of its attention eastward,” writes Robert Kaplan in The Atlantic.

--“Whatever the eventual outcome of the long-running negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program, Israeli interests cannot impede a warming of relations between Iran and the United States in the coming years, under either this president or the next,” writes Kaplan. Full column here. http://theatln.tc/1AdUwVa

Atomic bombings exhibition - “The cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki plan to hold an exhibit in Washington to mark the 70th anniversary this year of the U.S. atomic bombings in World War II, Hiroshima officials said Monday. If held, it will be the first exhibition of its kind in 20 years in the United States.”

--”The cities are considering featuring the voices of survivors and displaying belongings of the victims, the officials said.” Full story via The Japan Times. http://bit.ly/17dbDM2

Quick Hits:

--“Pakistan, India swap lists of nuclear facilities, prisoners,” via AFP. http://dailym.ai/1zOg1rt

--“Tiny Pacific nation aims to stop new nuclear arms race,” by James Carroll for the Boston Globe.http://bit.ly/1KexvFV

--“Former Congressman optimistic about nuclear deal after rare trip to Iran,” by Laura Rozen for Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/1A2q01t

--“Iran bashers display a dangerous lack of worldliness,” argues Jeffrey Simpson in The Globe and Mail. http://bit.ly/1AfSWmT

--“India's Mighty Nuclear-Weapons Program: Aimed at China and Pakistan?” by Robert Farley in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1BAni09

Events:

--“Preventing a Nuclear-Armed Iran through Diplomacy,” webinar by Women's Action for New Directions, featuring Kelsey Davenport of ACA and Jamal Abdi of NIAC. Wednesday January 7 at 2:00 PM. Register here.

--"WMD Terrorism and the American Response." Featuring Brad Hammitt of the National Nuclear Security Administration. January 8 at 4:30p.m. Off the record. Located at the Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“The Endgame: Success or Failure in Iran Nuclear Talks?" Featuring Ambassador Bill Luers, Paul Pillar, and Robin Wright of The Iran Project. January 12 from 4:30p.m.-6:00p.m. Located at Georgetown University’s Mortara Center for International Studies, 3600 N St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Strategic Deterrence in the Twenty-First Century." Featuring Adm. Cecil Haney, Commander, U.S. Strategic Forces. January 15 at 9:30 a.m.. Located at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington. RSVP online.

--“Strategic Deterrence in 2015 and Beyond," featuring Maj. Gen. Garrett Harencak, Air Force Assistant Chief of Staff for Strategic Deterrence and Nuclear Integration. January 20, 7:00-9:00 a.m. Sponsored by the Air Force Association. Key Bridge Marriot, 1401 Lee Highway, Arlington, VA. RSVP online.