Uranium Project Schedule and Cost Slipping

On the radar: Decades late and billions over budget; Tracking SCUDS; New START data; GMD test; State’s Generation Prague Conference; and Pentagon versus the Hermit King.

July 3, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Uncertainty around UPF - Cost and construction schedule estimates for the Uranium Processing Facility (UPF) have bounced around a lot. Once projected to be completed by 2020, NNSA’s latest estimate for the UPF is that phase 1 of the project might be done by 2025 with phase 3 finished in 2038.

--A GAO brief says that the best official cost estimate puts the building at $6 billion, while several reports are surfacing saying that the project could peak $10 billion. Frank Munger at The Knoxville News Sentinel has the story. http://bit.ly/17J03Dr

Crowdsourcing SCUD early warning - “Meet the Hacktivist Who Wants to Warn Syrians About Incoming Missiles: A new service provides an alert system for SCUDs fired by the Syrian government. Assad is already trying to take it down.” By Sonni Efron in The Atlantic. http://bit.ly/165wJnw

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Happy 4th! - Early warning will be offline for the holiday. We’ll resume regular coverage on Monday.

--In case you were curious: Here’s what would happen if you launched fireworks in space. http://t.co/d9gjV6hsdP
And here’s what happens to beer after a nuclear explosion. http://bit.ly/OXgFhS

Tweet - @NNSANews: Check out time lapse #video of #HEU being removed from #Vietnam: http://t.co/T8QuC5JHOH

New START numbers - Under the New START treaty, as of March 1, 2013, the U.S. had 1654 warheads deployed on 792 deployed strategic launchers of a total 1028 strategic launchers.

--Russia had 1480 warheads deployed on 492 deployed strategic launchers of a total 900 strategic launchers. State Department fact sheet - now including U.S. data on each strategic platform - posted here. (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/19TA4df

Testing, testing - The Pentagon plans to perform a missile interception experiment with its Ground-based Midcourse missile defense system. The $34 billion system hasn’t had a successful intercept since December 2008. Tony Capaccio at Bloomberg has the story. http://bloom.bg/16OvfQJ

Tweet - @Gottemoeller: Big news! Delighted to announce Sec. of @ENERGY @ErnestMoniz will keynote the GenPrague Conference on July 16-17. Agenda to follow.

Conference - The State Department will host its fourth annual Generation Prague Conference July 16-17. This year’s theme is “Building a Strategy of Peace,” in “honor of the 50th anniversary of President John F. Kennedy's groundbreaking speech at American University when he called for the US and the Soviet Union to relax tensions, end the nuclear arms race, and work towards disarmament.” Details here. http://ow.ly/mCOE5

CTBT report - “Embedding the CTBT in Norms, Law and Practice” by Dr. Rebecca Johnson for UNA-UK. (pdf) http://bit.ly/16Orr1Y

LANL pause - “Los Alamos National Laboratory is halting some operations at its main plutonium facility while safety is reviewed.” From AP. http://bit.ly/14qvPnw

Speed reads -

--“Next US-Russia Arms Talks Could Involve Short-Range Nuclear Weapons” by VOA. http://bit.ly/16Osdfe

--“Understanding the Russian Response to Obama’s Berlin Initiative” by Keary Iarussi at Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/11gDhn1

Events:

--U.S.-Russia Plutonium Disposition: Adventures with MOX." Jeffrey Smith, Douglas Birch, Frank von Hippel. July 9, 2:00-3:30 PM. Carnegie Endowment. Details here. http://ow.ly/my1RY

--"10th Anniversary of the Proliferation Security Initiative." Ryszard Schnepf, Rebecca Hersman, Vann Van Diepen, and Susan Koch. July 9, 3:30-5:00 PM @ CSIS B1C Conference Room. Details here. http://ow.ly/my35J

--"Institutional Roadblocks to Deterrence Stability in South Asia." Polly Nayak, Independent Consultant, and Lt. Gen. Vinay Shankar ret. July 11 12:30-2:00 PM @ Stimson Center. Details here. http://ow.ly/my3BW

Dessert:

Who has what - Ever wondered how U.S. and North Korean military capabilities and economic assets stack up? A new infographic by David Wallace published at Infographic Journal offers a side-by-side visual comparison.

--Spoiler: The U.S. has more money and land, air and manpower, while North Korea has more boats. http://ow.ly/mCXac