Multiple Problems with China’s Multiple Warheads

China’s nuclear modernization - China’s decision to equip its ICBMS with multiple nuclear warheads “raises concerns about its intentions, introduces new uncertainty in Asia and could add more fuel to a regional arms race,” writes the editorial board of The New York Times.

--“China’s move along this path does not represent a big increase in its nuclear capability...It has an estimated 250 warheads in total, with about three warheads on each of about 20 DF-5 missiles. All of this is a fraction of what the United States and Russia possess in their arsenals...while China’s arsenal has been growing slowly, putting MIRVs on missiles is a way to expand more quickly and it sows doubt about the commitment to a minimal deterrent.”

--“These developments strengthen the case for talks between the United States and China, and, ideally, with other nuclear powers, on ensuring strategic stability in Asia,” they write. “China has resisted a government-to-government dialogue, but American officials say there have been promising informal conversations that can provide a basis for progress. The United States, Russia, Britain and France could help greatly by transitioning from their multiple warhead weapons.” http://nyti.ms/1IPzoIA

--See also: “China MIRVs Some Missiles” New Arms Control Wonk podcast with Jeffrey Lewis and Aaron Stein. Listen here. http://bit.ly/1LlzqYE

Pakistan and nuclear rumor mill - “Pakistan has strong strategic, political and economic incentives to keep its nuclear weapons to itself,” argues Mark Fitzpatrick, Director Nonproliferation and Disarmament at the International Institute for Strategic Studies.

--Recent reports suggesting Saudi Arabia might purchase technology or even a functional nuclear weapon from Pakistan in response to the Iran nuclear agreement are not credible, Fitzpatrick argues. “The real danger is that Saudi money could lure Pakistani nuclear scientists to give it a head start on developing weapons technology,” Fitzpatrick notes. http://bit.ly/1HtdfhG

Tweet - @Cirincione: Do yourself a favor & read @FitzpatrickIISS's short, calm take down of the hype around Saudi's going nuclear. https://t.co/lF6vbyhRpa

Russia and the INF - The Obama administration is preparing a range of options to respond to Russia’s violation of the Intermediate Nuclear Forces treaty, Josh Rogin reports for Bloomberg View.

--Some of the proposed responses include providing NATO allies near Russia with more missile defense technology, expanding sanctions against Russia or increasing NATO air patrols near Russian airspace. http://bv.ms/1Huv5nt

Missile defense in Europe - U.S. officials argue that the Iran nuclear deal does not affect the need for missile defense in Europe, reports John Hudson in Foreign Policy.

--Greg Thielmann, a missile defense expert with the Arms Control Association, disagrees. “There’s no way in hell it makes any sense to protect France from a ballistic missile with a conventional warhead in this scenario,” Thielmann said. “It’s a hugely disproportionate expenditure of money without a nuclear warhead.” http://atfp.co/1K0P5vv

Pyongyang photoshopped SLBMs - Despite North Korea’s photos of their recent submarine launched missile test, "they have not gotten as far as their clever video editors and spinmeisters would have us believe," said Admiral James Winnefeld, vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff.

--As James Pearson reports for Reuters, North Korea has a history of faking or falsifying evidence of its missile technology. Photographic analysis suggests that the missile was launched from a submerged barge, not an actual submarine. Full story here: http://reut.rs/1JA4hld

THAAD - The U.S. is considering installing Terminal High Altitude Air Defense (THAAD) system in South Korea, but no decision has been made, and there have been no consultations with South Korea on the subject, says Assistant Secretary of State for Arms Control, Verification, and Compliance Frank Rose.

--“THAAD is a purely defensive system that would improve our ability to intercept short- and medium-range ballistic missiles from North Korea,” Assistant Secretary Rose noted. “It does not and cannot impact broader strategic stability with Russia and China.” The U.S., South Korea, and Japan are still cooperating on other missile defense technologies, such as improved radar systems. Full transcript here: http://1.usa.gov/1K16rIw

Miniaturization - Recent North Korean propaganda claimed that the country had the ability to deploy a nuclear warhead atop a ballistic missile - an advanced capability that many experts dispute North Korea has yet achieved. Adm. Winnefeld gave his assessment that North Korea’s capabilities are not as developed as its propaganda suggests. “They are years away from developing this capability,” said Adm. Winnefeld.

--Other experts are less dismissive. “We should not exaggerate the capabilities of North Korea’s nuclear forces, but underestimating them is every bit as bad,” wrote analyst Jeffrey Lewis. “The North Koreans are developing military capabilities that we will, sooner or later, have to deal with.” Full story from Anna Fifield at The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1Af5Lzr

Y-12 protesters to be freed - A federal appeals court overturned the sabotage convictions issued against Sister Megan Rice and her two fellow anti-nuclear activists who broke into the Y-12 national security complex in 2013. The protesters are slated for a resentencing, including only the damaging federal property conviction, which is expected to reduce their total punishment to less than the two years of prison time they’ve already served. Josh Harkinson of Mother Jones has the story. http://bit.ly/1LlzDLr

Quick Hits:

-- “Iran’s Khamenei Rules Out Interviews With Nuclear Scientists,” by Parisa Hafezi for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1PWAVNr

--“Putting Strategic Interests First with Iran,” by Peter Jenkins for LobeLog. http://bit.ly/1cOMpGb

--“Demand nuclear disarmament, not deterrence,” editorial from The National Catholic Reporter. http://bit.ly/1c4Q5mq

-- “The Trident whistleblower should make us all question Britain’s nuclear deterrent,” by Kate Hudson for The New Statesman. http://bit.ly/1Ba7z7u