IAEA Report No Game Changer, Shows Incremental Advancement of Iran’s Program

August 31, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

“Restricted Distribution” - “Implementation of the NPT Safeguards Agreement and relevant provisions of Security Council resolutions in the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Report by the IAEA Director General. 30 August 2012. (pdf) http://bit.ly/OFvqat

ISIS Analysis - Bold font summary of the IAEA report: “Rate of 20% LEU Production Increases but the Number of Cascades Producing the Material Remains Constant; Number of Installed Centrifuges at Fordow Doubles; Production of 3.5% Enriched Uranium Increases Slightly; Advanced Centrifuge Program Still Troubled and Makes No Visible Progress”

--Numbers: Natanz has 9,330 centrifuges installed, a slight increase of 174 since last report. Fordow has 2140 centrifuges installed - an increase of 1076 since the last report - with only 696 centrifuges enriching.

--Iran’s net stockpile: 5,309.2 kg of 3.5% LEU product, 1,566.8 kg of 3.5% LEU feed, and 91.4 kg of 19.75% LEU product. Full report from David Albright et al. at ISIS. (pdf) http://bit.ly/Oye3GM

Tweet - @cirincione: The press reports on the IAEA report can be a bit alarming. There are a couple of new expert assessments for those interested.

ACA view - “Although, the August IAEA report is another troubling reminder of Iran’s proliferation potential, it is not a “game-changer” in terms of Tehran’s capability to build a nuclear arsenal if it were to decide to do so,” writes Tom Collina and Daryl Kimball at Arms Control Now. http://bit.ly/Ugr6Pv

Fitzpatrick view - “The danger posed by Iran’s nuclear program is heightening incrementally: The numbers grow arithmetically, not by orders of magnitude. In response to those advocating military action, one must ask how it is justifiable to launch a war, with all the predictable costs, over a 10% increase in centrifuge machines,” writes Mark Fitzpatrick at Al Monitor.

--”Iran may also be seeking to calibrate the tempo of its enrichment activity so as not to goad its antagonists. Tehran has proven to be adept at such salami-slicing tactics, gradually increasing the size of its enrichment program to the point where it now has a stockpile of low-enriched uranium sufficient for at least four weapons (some say more than six) if further enriched. At some point, this calibration may go awry...We are not there yet, though.” http://bit.ly/OyjZj4

Reminder - Salami-slicing in the Islamic Republic probably doesn’t translate well. http://bit.ly/OFEtYQ

Cordesman view - “Further Moves toward an Iranian Nuclear Weapons Breakout Capability: The New IAEA Report on Iran,” summarizes Anthony Cordesman of CSIS. http://bit.ly/PUU7xp

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Israeli view- The IAEA report on Iran’s activities put increased pressure on Israeli decision-makers, who will likely interpret the results as moving Iran closer to Israel’s declared “red-line”, reports Jodi Rudoren and David Sanger in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/OE6LD7

Brinkmanship - “What’s particularly striking about Iran’s behavior is that the nation’s leaders seem to ignore the possibility that it will provoke Israel into launching a military strike on the nuclear facilities in the coming weeks,” writes the Washington Post editorial board.

--”Perhaps supreme leader Ali Khamenei doesn’t take the Israeli threat seriously, though clearly he should; perhaps he might welcome such an attack as a way to rally domestic and international support, bust out of tightening economic sanctions and justify a unqualified race for a bomb.” http://wapo.st/SZSL7A

No guidance yet - Obama came to office with a vision to rid the rid the world of nuclear weapons, and his administration has seen several big successes. “Three years later, as the president enters the final stretch of his re-election bid, Obama has yet to truly stamp U.S. nuclear policy with his own imprint,” experts told David Alexander in Reuters.

--The Obama administration’s nuclear posture review implementation study is likely on-hold until after the election. “The document that would define how deeply the United States is prepared to cut back its nuclear arsenal - perhaps to 1,000 warheads or less - and how radically to alter U.S. nuclear doctrine is still awaiting Obama's final approval.” Read about the administration’s past successes and current challenges here. http://reut.rs/R0i9Fv

Y-12 insecurity - “We identified troubling displays of ineptitude in responding to alarms, failures to maintain critical security equipment, over reliance on compensatory measures, misunderstanding of security protocols, poor communications, and weaknesses in contract and resource management,” writes the Department of Energy Inspector General on the recent security breach at Y-12. Full (scathing) report with recommendations here. http://1.usa.gov/R2gDmk

Not US policy - Gen. Martin Dempsey, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, tried to distance the US military from any future Israeli strike on Iran. “I don’t want to be complicit if they [Israel] choose to do it,” he said to reporters at the Paralympics opening ceremony in London.

--The General also expressed the common assessment among security leaders, both American and Israeli, that an Israeli strike would “clearly delay but probably not destroy Iran’s nuclear program”. The Guardian has the story. http://bit.ly/Q4Ys2Z

Six million feet of timber - On a mission to visit forgotten landscapes and infrastructure in the American southwest, author Mark Pilkington visits the Trestle at Kirkland Airforce Base in New Mexico. Still the largest all-wood structure in the world, the rig was built for Cold War era tests of the effects of EMP pulses on aircraft. Today it “is a condemned structure, too unstable to use, too expensive to dismantle,” writes Pilkington. See the picture here. http://bit.ly/RrpmPw

Atomic mugshots - Mugshots in passports or security badges are rarely flattering. Same went for security badges of Manhattan Project workers. Alex Wellerstein at Restricted Data rounded up the security badge photos from Los Alamos - including Robert Oppenheimer, Klaus Fuchs, and Gen. Leslie Grover (sic). http://bit.ly/OycjNy

--Want the atomic mugshots on a mug? For sale at Cafe Press, with all proceeds supporting the Restricted Data blog. http://bit.ly/PFLFk1