How to Handle Iran Negotiations and Ballistic Missile Concerns

May 20, 2014 | Edited by Lauren Mladenka and Geoff Wilson

Focus on nuclear capability - “Missiles have emerged as a significant issue in the Iran nuclear talks, since they would be the most likely means for delivering a future Iranian nuclear weapon,” writes Greg Theilmann in Defense One. “However, missiles are not the core issue – Iran’s nuclear potential is –so United States and partner negotiators should not let their desire to limit missiles armed with conventional warheads derail a final deal with Iran.”

--“A militarily weak Iran relies heavily on its conventionally-armed ballistic missiles for defense and deterrence. Iran has invested significant resources on developing and deploying several dozen medium-range ballistic missiles, which can reach the territory or the military forces of countries (Israel and the U.S.) that threaten it with attack (“all options on the table”). Neither the nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty to which Iran is a party nor the Joint Plan of Action to which Tehran recently agreed contains any prohibitions on ballistic missiles. Moreover, there is no universally accepted definition of what constitutes a nuclear capable missile.”

--“The best way at the moment to address Iran’s potential to exploit nuclear capable missiles is to ensure that Iran’s nuclear program is sufficiently limited and transparent that missile limits become unnecessary. As the lead U.S.negotiator, Under Secretary of State Wendy Sherman testified to congress in February: ‘If we can get to the verifiable assurance that [the Iranians] cannot obtain a nuclear weapon…then a delivery mechanism, important as it is, is less important.’ Recognizing this critical distinction between the good and the necessary will be key to achieving a satisfactory outcome in the ongoing negotiations.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1gKCl2d

WH on NDAA and Iran - “The Administration has concerns with the Sense of Congress language on Iran in section 1264 [of the House version of the National Defense Authorization Act] or similar provisions purporting to set conditions on negotiations. Preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon has been a top priority for the Administration toward which it has worked diligently with Congress and our international partners… By spelling out conditions for a final resolution before the conclusion of the negotiations, the bill undermines that vital effort. The Administration is fully committed to continuing to brief and consult closely with Congress so that the U.S. Government speaks with one voice and does not undermine our negotiators’ efforts to achieve a strong deal that will protect our interests, our partners, and the international community.” Read the White House’s response to Rep. Buck McKeon’s (R-CA) National Defense Authorization Act for FY 2015 here. http://1.usa.gov/1mP7Isy

Command and Control - How safe is safe for the nuclear arsenal? Join Eric Schlosser, author of Command and Control, for a conversation on nuclear safety, near misses and how the combination of human fallibility and technological complexity still pose a grave risk. Opening remarks from Rep. Jim Cooper.

--Thursday, May 22 from 8:30 to 9:30 am, in Rayburn 2212. Breakfast will be provided. RSVP at rsvp@ploughshares.org.

Tweet - @Cirincione: Join us for a fascinating talk with Eric Schlosser & @repjimcooper, 5/22 on Capitol Hill. http://bit.ly/1klrLOm

New era of diplomacy - Three weeks after Javad Zarif was named Iran’s foreign minister, “Zarif met with Secretary of State John Kerry at the United Nations to discuss resuming negotiations on Iran’s nuclear program,” writes Robin Wright in a piece for The New Yorker. “The next day, President Rouhani, who was in New York to attend the General Assembly, took a telephone call from President Obama. It lasted fifteen minutes, and was the first conversation between Iranian and American leaders since the Shah’s ouster, in 1979.”

--“Since then, there have been monthly diplomatic talks, at various levels, in Geneva and Vienna. Zarif, who prepped Rouhani for the Obama call, is now the broker between his volatile government and the world’s six mightiest powers— Britain, China, France, Germany, Russia, and the United States. The goal is a comprehensive deal to insure that Tehran does not seek or obtain a nuclear weapon. An interim, six-month agreement was reached in November and went into effect in January. Iran agreed to gradually suspend or convert controversial aspects of its nuclear program. In exchange, Tehran is receiving, also in phases, relief from economic sanctions amounting to between six and seven billion dollars… Zarif and Kerry have now met four times, and call each other John and Javad. ‘That’s one of the first things you Americans do,’ Zarif told me. ‘Had I not been in the U.S. for such a long time, I would have been astonished for the Secretary of State of the adversary to start calling me by my first name.’ They have each other’s phone number and e-mail address and have used them. Their staffs are in touch more often.”

--“I asked Zarif what a nuclear deal might mean for the two countries in which he has divided his life. ‘The United States—as President Obama very rightly said—has tried all other options which were on the table or off the table,’ he answered. ‘And the only option that’s left is to try to reach an understanding, which was probably the most sensible option to begin with. But there is a saying—that we diplomats always choose the right approach after we have tried all the wrong ones.’ The new diplomacy, he said, is now ‘the only game in town. And I think, if we play it right, it will change the course of Iran’s relations with the West.’” Read the full story (behind a paywall) here. http://nyr.kr/1gftNjs

Political maneuvering- “Facing a difficult vote that would have forced Democrats to choose sides between the White House and members of the pro-Israel community, Senator Bob Menendez, the chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, removed a key piece of pro-Israel legislation from the committee's agenda, according to congressional aides familiar with the matter. The bill, the U.S.-Israel Strategic Partnership Act, would expand cooperation between the two nations in a number of areas, including defense, intelligence, energy, and homeland security. The legislation enjoys broad bipartisan support and would have likely passed the foreign relations committee. But Menendez surprised Republicans by calling off a vote on the bill after it became clear that the committee's ranking member, Sen. Bob Corker (R-Tenn.), planned to introduce an amendment related to the Obama administration's nuclear talks with Iran that would have forced Democrats to make a politically difficult choice in the run up to this year's midterm elections.”

--“Should President Obama reach a deal with Iran and five other world powers to restrain the country's nuclear program, the Corker measure would have forced the president to submit the full plan to Congress within three days. The amendment would then give Congress the right to hold a ‘vote of disapproval’ on the final deal and make way for hearings on the matter. Notably, the legislation would not give Congress the power to block the deal, only to express its will on the issue. Such a vote would have likely divided Democrats torn between standing behind the White House's hard-fought diplomatic efforts and members of the pro-Israel community, many of whom are deeply skeptical of an Iran deal.” Get the full story from John Hudson in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1qQv3yb

IAEA inquiry - “Iran plans to confer with a top U.N. investigator on Tuesday to eliminate ‘concerns and ambiguities’ tied to its atomic activities,” Global Security Newswire reports. “International Atomic Energy Agency safeguards chief Tero Varjoranta is to lead experts to Iran for a daylong meeting to complete 13 initial steps in an inquiry on the nation's past nuclear efforts, a senior Iranian official said in a report by the state-run news service. Tehran was scheduled last week to finish implementing the transparency actions, which it pledged to carry out under deals reached with the agency in November and February.” Read the full story here. http://bit.ly/1o1Y9bM

Nuclear monsoon - “Media reports here have outlined that Pakistan is set to increase funding for the armed forces and the national nuclear body, the Pakistan Atomic Energy Commission (PAEC), under the forthcoming 2014-FY2015 budget. The budget would be just over US $81 million for the PAEC, up from nearly $63 million the previous year (which was later increased to $66 million).”

--Mansoor Ahmed, from Quaid-e-Azam University’s Department of Defence and Strategic Studies, said that “these and other classified projects are presumably aimed at the development of a new variety of lightweight, compact and more powerful and efficient weapon designs, suitable for a variety of ballistic and cruise missiles, that require additional fissile material [plutonium] production, and fuel fabrication in addition to maintaining and improving existing infrastructure.” The budget increase for the armed forces is also significant. “The new defense budget proper is said to be just over $7.6 billion. This is an increase from the nearly $6.4 billion the previous year, (revised later to $6.6 billion).” Read the full report from Usman Ansari for Defense News here. http://bit.ly/Tq4hOw

Not reliving the Cold War - “NATO does not expect to base nuclear weapons or large numbers of new combat troops in eastern Europe, despite tension with Russia over Ukraine, Secretary-General Anders Fogh Rasmussen said on Monday. NATO officials also said Russian and NATO ambassadors may meet as early as next week to discuss the Ukraine crisis,” Reuters reports. “In 1997, during a period of better relations, NATO reached an agreement with Russia under which alliance members said they had no intention of deploying nuclear weapons on the territory of new member states, which began joining in 1999 after the collapse of the Soviet Union.”

--“Asked if the Ukraine crisis would lead NATO to reconsider its pledge not to place nuclear weapons on the territory of new member states, Rasmussen told a news conference: ‘At this stage, I do not foresee any NATO request to change the content of the NATO-Russia founding act (the 1997 agreement).’ He said, however, that Russia's actions in Ukraine had created ‘a completely new security situation in Europe’ and NATO must adapt accordingly. Long-term decisions would be taken when NATO leaders meet in Wales in September, he said.” Full story here. http://reut.rs/1h4c61k

Anti-missile deal - “The United States reportedly has put a new proposal on the table for fostering deeper trilateral antimissile cooperation with Japan and South Korea,” Global Security Newswire reports. “The Obama administration has suggested creating a three-way framework that would enable the immediate exchange of information between Seoul, Tokyo and Washington about any North Korean missile launches detected by South Korean sensors.”

--“The Obama administration is reported to be eyeing a start for joint talks on military intelligence-sharing about North Korean missile threats at a meeting of the three countries' defense chiefs slated to happen on the margins of the yearly Shangri-La Security Dialogue on May 30 in Singapore, according to sources. Washington would like to connect the existing U.S.-Japanese antimissile framework with South Korea's radar, which can detect a launched North Korean missile in its initial liftoff phase, insiders said.” Read the full article here. http://bit.ly/1lCOhPG

Tweet - @SchwartzCNS: Hot Holes in the Heartland Forever! Amendment #6 to FY15 NDAA requires keeping all 450 ICBM silos in at least "warm" status indefinitely.

Allegorical lizard - “This weekend, the world's favorite nuclear lizard, Godzilla, roars back to the big screen. This time, in 3D and with new, powerful anti-nuclear message,” write Ploughshares Fund president Joseph Cirincione and Geoff Wilson in the Huffington Post. “There is no shortage of nuclear weapons in Hollywood films. But many of the scriptwriters and directors still follow a Cold War paradigm: These are necessary weapons that are the ultimate guarantor of our security. So, in Independence Day and The Avengers our heroes use nuclear weapons to blow up the alien mother ship, saving the planet. Pacific Rim ends with soldiers using a massive nuclear bomb to seal a kaiju trans-dimensional portal, again saving the Earth. Only a few films present nuclear weapons as the threat, not the solution. In The Dark Knight Rises, for instance, Batman risks his life to fly a nuclear bomb out to sea before it can destroy Gotham.”

--“In fact, downplaying the threat of nuclear weapons goes back to the original US release of the original Godzilla. Called Godzilla, King of the Monsters, the Americanized version of the film cut all references to the atomic bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki, the U.S. atomic testing in the Marshall Islands, and replaced about twenty minutes of the film with scenes of an American reporter, played by Raymond Burr, chasing the monster around Japan. This sanitized Godzilla took out the haunting anti-nuclear allegory, stripping it of its real power. But this is no trivial matter. The way that our culture perceives nuclear weapons has played a major role in shaping our nuclear strategy.”

--“Today, most Americans think our nuclear nightmares are behind us. Many may believe that such threats ended with the Cold War or that current policies can prevent or contain nuclear disaster. They are dead wrong. The United States alone still has over 7,000 nuclear bombs, each one capable of producing the destructive power of 10 to 30 Hiroshima bombs. Globally there are more than 17,000 weapons held my nine nations large and small, stable and unstable. There is a high risk that someone will use, either by accident or design, one of them. Or more. They remain an ongoing nightmare. So, thank you, [director Gareth Edwards], for sending Godzilla to correct the balance. His monster accurately conveys the view held by many security experts today: Whatever value nuclear weapon may have had during the Cold War, they are now a major liability, not a security asset.” Full piece here. http://huff.to/1jm5jFJ

Quick-hits:

--“North Korea may be close to developing nuclear missile, some say” by Jack Kim for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1giwKQk

--“Newly Elected Indian Leader May Bode Will for Pakistan Peace Talks” report by Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/1gKIUSE

--“Iran determined to solve nuclear crisis via negotiations: IRNA” report by Reuters. http://reut.rs/1nbP1SC

Events:

--“Nuclear Weapons: How Safe is Safe?” Discussion with author Eric Schlosser. May 22 from 8:30-9:30am at the Rayburn House Office Building, Room 2212. RSVP to rsvp@ploughshares.org.

--“The Korean Peninsula Issues and U.S. National Security.” Discussion with Wallace Gregson, Gen. Seung Jo Jung, Joseph Bosco, David Maxwell, and Larry Niksch. May 23 from 1:15-4:30 at 345 Cannon House Office Building. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lBkqXQ

--“The United States and Global Missile Defense.” Discussion with 20 policy experts. May 28 at 8:30am at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th floor, West Tower. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1lFlA5Z

Dessert:

Weaponized unicorns included - “Atlanta-based Moneyhorse Games created a side-scrolling video game that will be available soon for PCs and mobile devices. It features North Korea’s Kim Jong Un gallivanting through forests on unicorn and dashing through the streets of Pyongyang, battling U.S. paratroopers and eventually setting fire to an American flag. Oh, and of course, Kim Jong Un’s noted bestie Dennis Rodman will be involved.” Report and video on the satirical game, from TIME’s Samantha Grossman. http://ti.me/1mv9K0A