Blurring the Line between Major and Minor Nuclear States

On the radar: Small but advanced arsenals; Avoiding sanctions; Air Force math; Sen. Hagel’s nuclear record; General: trim the nuclear budget; and The IAEA’s atomic swagger.

January 11, 2013 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski and Marianne Nari Fisher

Blurring trend - The once clear divide between the P5 and non-P5 states may be fading, as states with smaller arsenals develop are developing sophisticated technical capabilities, writes Timothy McDonnell in a new Bulletin Nuclear Notebook.

--”While more declassified documents can help policymakers formulate informed judgments about the future, only time will tell whether this blurring trend will continue,” McDonnell concludes. http://bit.ly/UUSC9L

Evasive maneuvers - While financial sanctions on Iran are increasingly tough, Iran is finding ways to bypass the restrictions, including using private exchange houses in other countries. The New York Times reports. http://nyti.ms/ZPVvd2

Air Force priorities - The new nuclear bomber program remains a high priority, Air Force Secretary Michael Donley writes in the final installment of his AOL Defense budget series.

--Sec. Donley’s case for funding priorities seems to rest more on math than strategy. The bomber program “encompasses approximately two percent of Air Force investment,” he writes, and nuclear forces, special operations, and personnel recovery account for about ten percent. http://aol.it/ZPQzFh

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A leader on nuclear security - Sen. Hagel’s strong record on nuclear security issues makes him part of the “growing bipartisan” movement for smart nuclear reductions, security experts say.

--“Sen. Hagel’s commitment to reducing nuclear dangers - both in the Senate and in the years since - sets him apart as one of America’s most insightful and effective voices on nuclear security,” Ploughshares Board member Roger Hale said in a statement. Foreign Policy reports. http://atfp.co/10lJ4qF

Event - Adm. William Fallon, LtGen. Frank Kearney, and Col. Lawrence Wilkerson on the Iran Nuclear Challenge, January 16 at 12:30pm at the American Security Project. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/WWH28U

Trim Pentagon spending The budget crunch is an opportunity to reexamine the “sacred cow” of Pentagon spending with an eye towards long-term strategic goals, writes retired Brigadier General John Adams of the American Security Project in The Hill.

--”Eliminating unnecessary nuclear programs will save billions of dollars that can then be invested in more effective defense programs,” thereby strengthening national security, Gen. Adams concludes. http://bit.ly/11jJ35T

Sandia’s fate - As contractors gear up to oversee operations at the Y-12 National Security Complex in Tennessee and the Pantex Plant in Texas, many await the fate of Sandia’s management contract that is slated to expire this year, reports Albuquerque Business First. http://bit.ly/SoGcG5

Quote - “[Sen. Chuck Hagel’s] views on nuclear weapons and arms control are clearly ‘mainstream,’ as they reflect President Obama’s stated position - widely supported by experienced leaders from both parties - that the massive nuclear arsenal we inherited from the Cold War is poorly suited for today’s threats, including nuclear terrorism,” Amb. Richard Burt told Politico (paywall). http://politico.pro/WUXshU

Next steps with Iran - “It is important not to interpret the success of current sanctions as a mandate for even more,” write Laicie Olson and Usha Sahay ” in the New Jersey Star-Ledger. “Rather than pile harsher measures onto Iran’s already crippled economy, Congress should shift gears to focus on crafting a diplomatic solution that will bring the Iran impasse to a close.” http://bit.ly/13lpXuC

Tweet - @Wellerstein: Britannica Kids' explanation of how H-bombs work. Kind of adorable. http://bit.ly/SoigCU pic.twitter.com/9Ew5dhzE

Second Nuclear Age - “The most urgent problem stems from the breakdown of major countries' one-time nuclear monopoly,” argues Paul Bracken in the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette.

--“A new set of rules for diplomacy, military strategy and arms control is needed to stabilize this emerging nuclear order. Pretending that it does not exist is not a strategy,” the author concludes. http://bit.ly/Xq70DP

“An atom with style” - The IAEA logo wasn’t as eye-catching fifty years ago as it is today. Alex Wellerstein has the story behind the development of “the coolest logo of any atomic-energy organization in history” at The Nuclear Secrecy Blog. http://bit.ly/10lRXAE