Previewing the IAEA Report

August 28, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Leah Fae Cochran

"Time and space” - The expected IAEA report on Iran detailing new centrifuges installed at Fordow is “unsettling news” but as one official put it, “is not a game changer”, according to The New York Times editorial board.

--”The Obama administration sensibly says ‘there is time and space’ to keep working toward a diplomatic solution, despite growing pressure for military action from Israel and its supporters...[The administration assesses that] Iran is not on the verge of producing a weapon and that the United Nations inspectors will provide warning before it gets to that point.” Full editorial here. http://nyti.ms/PLy6U5

Imperiled? - Kingston Reif provides a nuclear wonk’s analysis of the section of the leaked 2012 RNC platform titled, ’Nuclear Forces and Missile Defense Imperiled’. Read the analysis here. http://bit.ly/OGNsaX

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Ruskies at NORAD - There may not be more convincing proof that the Cold War is really over than the following: This week, Russian military officers are participating in a joint training exercise from inside NORAD, the former headquarters in charge of anticipating a Soviet nuclear attack.

--”For all the fears of a new Cold War between the U.S. and Russia, it’s worth noting that Ivan is now training within the heart of America’s defense network. The partnership underscores how the already poor chances of an armed conflict erupting between Russia and the West is becoming even more remote,” writes Robert Beckhusen at Danger Room. http://bit.ly/Toz9HI

Reciprocal reductions - Reciprocal nuclear reductions between the U.S. and Russia, outside of a formal arms control agreement, could be a timely and useful way to induce Russia to forgo developing a destabilizing heavy ICBM, writes Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk. The recommendation was offered in a new report from the Secretary of State’s International Security Advisory Board.

--While Lewis thinks such reductions would be worth making, he argues a new term is needed. The report called for “reciprocal unilateral measures,” which has some definitional and political difficulties. http://bit.ly/NuDjkz

Navy absent from BMD budget - According to Pentagon estimates, the Navy is not paying a dime for missile defense. Instead, MDA is stuck holding the bag on Aegis operations and maintenance and SM-3 procurement ($42.2 million and $3.8 billion over the next five years, respectively).

--This “says a lot about Navy priorities during an era of tightening budgets,” writes your humble EW editor at the Ploughshares Fund blog. http://bit.ly/SJ9X1h

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: As of last Nov. DoD estimated its annual operating costs to support US tac nukes in Euro to be approx $100 million. http://ow.ly/dgzmy

@nukes_of_hazard: NNSAs estimate (as of 11/11) of total 50 year operations/maintenance cost of UPF: $6.5 billion. CMRR: $6.3 billion.

Hyperbole - Stephen Walt refutes the oft-repeated notion that China’s ballistic missile program or nuclear modernization represent a “revisionist” threat to the United States. “[The] Chinese are doing precisely what any sensible power would do: they are trying to preserve their own second-strike deterrent,” Walt writes.

--”If you wanted to cap or slow Chinese nuclear modernization, the smart way to do it would be to abandon the futile pursuit of strategic missile defenses and bring China into the same negotiating framework that capped and eventually reduced the U.S. and Russian arsenals.” Full post at Foreign Policy. http://bit.ly/NysIiF

Close hold - There are fewer than twenty copies of the president’s instructions for nuclear targeting. The sensitive document is tightly held within the Office of the Secretary of Defense, the Joint Staff, and U.S. Strategic Command. The debate continues as to whether members of Congress and senior staff should have greater access to the tightly held targeting guidance. Steven Aftergood at FAS has the story. http://bit.ly/U8dgyD

Checking sources - A recent New York Times report reported that a state-run Chinese newspaper said “China was developing the capability to put multiple warheads on intercontinental ballistic missiles, or ICBMs.” Gregory Kulacki at All Things Nuclear tried to source that original report, only to find that the story is actually based on statements from Bill Gertz at The Washington Times, not the Chinese government.

--Reliable information on China’s nuclear arsenal is very hard to come by. But that’s no excuse for journalists not to examine the credibility of their sources, notes Kulacki. http://bit.ly/OsYrGc

Japan might disagree - “The plain truth is that people don't lose sleep over nuclear weapons in the hands of rational actors,” argues author Warren Kozak in an op-ed for the WSJ titled “Nuclear-Weapon States Aren’t Created Equal.” http://on.wsj.com/PoWwQw

--Tweets @MicahZenko on the article: “This is just the worst history.”