US Intel Chief Weighs in on Iran’s Strategic Outlook and the Nuclear Deal

February 5, 2015 | Edited by Will Saetren

Verifiable - The nuclear deal between put in place extensive verification and monitoring at Iran’s nuclear facilities, giving the U.S. and allies assurance that Iran cannot dash for a bomb. “We assess that Iran would not be able to divert safeguarded material and produce enough WGU [weapons grade uranium] for a weapon before such activity would be discovered.” reads the intelligence community’s Worldwide Threat Assessment on Iran, recently delivered by the DNI Clapper to Congress.

--“We assess that if Iran fully implements the Joint Plan, it will temporarily halt the expansion of its enrichment program, eliminate its production and stockpile of 20-percent enriched uranium in a form suitable for further enrichment, and provide additional transparency into its existing and planned nuclear facilities. This transparency would provide earlier warning of a breakout using these facilities.” Full document here (pdf). http://1.usa.gov/1b8mRg2

Domestic politics - In a recent speech Iranian President Hassan Rouhani emphasized that Iran does not seek nuclear weapons and criticized the U.S. and allies for attempting to curb Iran’s nuclear activities while maintaining their own nuclear arsenals. The speech, unusually aggressive for the moderate president, was delivered in the central city of Isfahan and “seemed tailored for a domestic audience.” The New York Times’ Rick Gladstone reports. http://nyti.ms/1LPVk7U

Munich - Secretary of State John Kerry will meet Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif in Munich on February 7th to discuss the ongoing nuclear talks, State Department officials have announced. The Associated Press reports. http://bit.ly/1EIMabi

Tweet - @TomCollina: GOP, Bibi opposition to #IranTalks increasingly about politics, not policy. http://t.co/AC4smenp1S

Tweet - @JBWolfsthal: Tomorrow is New Start's birthday. http://t.co/Yf7yQ2j4eK We all get to benefit every day. #nuclear #pragueagenda #obama #armscontrol

NATO’s nuclear agenda - Russia is reportedly considering lowering its threshold for using nuclear weapons, raising concerns in NATO. No immediate action is expected, but the topic is on the agenda for a Thursday meeting of NATO's Nuclear Planning Group, Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/1Kihy0n

--“We will continue a dialogue with Russia to address that this isn't the kind of behavior that we would hope to see with weapons of mass destruction like a nuclear weapon,” Gen. Philip Breedlove, NATO’s top military commander said. http://on.wsj.com/1AvJSuA

Blinken to Seoul - Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken will visit South Korea next week “in his first trip in the position for talks that will focus on North Korea and other regional issues, the State Department said on Wednesday.” Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/1KuO4L5

Long read - “Excess Plutonium Disposition: The Failure of MOX and the Promise of Its Alternatives,” a new report by Ed Lyman of the Union of Concerned Scientists (pdf). http://bit.ly/1DCgakU

Not quite a breakthrough - ‘“We’ve been characterizing [the reportedly forthcoming U.S.-India nuclear deal] as a breakthrough or breakthrough understanding,” said a senior U.S. administration official on Tuesday. But, the official said, “It is not a signed piece of paper but a process that led us to a better understanding of how we might move forward.”’ Annie Gowen and Steven Mufson have the story for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1C3935B

Why we swoon for SWU - “It really isn’t all about the numbers, it’s about the ability of separation [to create highly enriched uranium].” Marianne Fisher & Cervando Bañuelos II in Medium lay out the technical reasons for focusing on SWU rather than the number of centrifuges. http://bit.ly/1DhZgKL

Quick Hits:

--“The Agni-V and India's ICBM Strategy,”by Jhinuk Chowdhury for The Diplomat. http://bit.ly/18R15Ty

--“Who Are the Billionaires Attacking Obama’s Iran Diplomacy?” By Eli Clifton in The Nation. http://bit.ly/1zQvwoI

Events:

--“Screening of The Man Who Saved the World. February 5 from 7:00-9:00 p.m. Located at Georgetown University, New South Film Screening Room, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/16ajpF7

--"A Visit to Tehran: Outlook for U.S.-Iran Relations," featuring former Rep. Jim Slattery (KS). February 9, 2:00 p.m., Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1Df9zNk

--"Iran Nuclear Talks: Truths and Tall Tales from Tehran and Tel-Aviv." Featuring Ori Rabinowitz, author of Bargaining on Nuclear Tests: Washington and its Cold War Deals, and Ariane Tabatabai, Georgetown University. February 11 from 10:00 a.m.-Noon. Located at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 1400 K St. NW, Suite 1225, Washington DC. RSVP by February 9 online. http://1.usa.gov/1z6uT8k

--"Nuclear Bargains Reviewed: Washington's Cold War Nuclear Deals and What They Mean for Iran. Featuring Or Rabinowitz, King's College London. February 13 from 1:00-2:30 p.m. Located at the Wilson Center, Fifth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1v1CLmy