New National Security Strategy on Nuclear Reductions, Iran Diplomacy

February 6, 2015 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

Nuclear strategy - “No threat poses as grave a danger to our security and well-being as the potential use of nuclear weapons and materials by irresponsible states or terrorists. We therefore seek the peace and security of a world without nuclear weapons,” reads the National Security Strategy released by the White House today.

--On nuclear security: “Reducing the threat requires us to constantly reinforce the basic bargain of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty….For our part, we are reducing the role and number of nuclear weapons through New START and our own strategy,” as well as supporting the entry into force of the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, regional nuclear weapons-free zone protocols, and a Fissile Materials Cut-off Treaty.

--On Iran: “Our preference is to achieve a comprehensive and verifiable deal that assures Iran’s nuclear program is solely for peaceful purposes. This is the best way to advance our interests, strengthen the global nonproliferation regime, and enable Iran to access peaceful nuclear energy.” Full document here (pdf). http://1.usa.gov/1DMW8ET

Tweet - @BrookingsFP: Read the 2015 National Security Strategy: http://brook.gs/1xAl8tW & watch @AmbassadorRice's remarks at 1pmET:http://t.co/Niw9F6ibtt #2015NSS

Carter inherits a mess - Over twenty years ago, a little known Assistant Secretary of Defense for International Security affairs named Ashton Carter led an effort to eliminate land-based ICBMs and convert all bombers to conventional missions. Today, that man is the nominee for Secretary of Defense and a staunch defender of the nuclear triad. Jeffrey Lewis takes a look at Carter’s evolution in Foreign Policy.

--The budget crunch and exploding costs of the nuclear arsenal may make Carter’s preference a moot point. “Secretary of Defense Ash Carter is going to find himself fending off budget-driven decisions that will push the nuclear force in precisely the strategic direction that some people say Assistant Secretary Ash Carter wanted more than 20 years ago. That’s quite an interesting turn of events, isn’t it?” http://atfp.co/1yQpW01

China for NK talks - China has urged “‘all parties’ to step up efforts to swiftly resume talks on North Korea's nuclear weapons program after U.S. lawmakers submitted a bill calling for tougher sanctions on the North,” reports the Yonhap News Agency. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1C50t6n

Bright spot - New START, which entered into force four years ago yesterday, provided allowed mutual reductions in the nuclear arsenals of the U.S. and Russia, which are by far the largest in the world. “It has been a very successful four years… a significant bright spot in our bilateral relations,” Rose Gottemoeller, the Under Secretary of State for Arms Control and International Security said during an interview in London. “It has so far been immune to problems in the relationship.”

--However, next steps for nuclear reductions remain unclear. “We don’t have a willing dance partner at the moment,” Gottemoeller said. The Guardian’s Julian Borger reports. http://bit.ly/1zobiRa

Mixed signals - Years after commiting to a vision of a nuclear free world, “Obama’s Pentagon is kick-starting a massive effort to revamp its doomsday arsenal—building all sorts of new weapons that Obama once said he didn’t want.” Daily Beast’s Dave Majumdar takes a look at the exploding costs of the new bomber, Long-Range Standoff missile, and other nuclear programs. http://thebea.st/18UhsyT

NK on the agenda - “South Korea's foreign minister plans meet with his Russian counterpart in Germany on the weekend to discuss North Korea's nuclear weapons program and other issues,” reports the Yonhap News Agency. http://bit.ly/1AAj8ci

Correction - In yesterday’s edition we mistakenly included a World Threat Assessment delivered by DNI Clapper to Congress on January 29, 2014. For the latest, read the World Threat Assesment statement presented by DIA Director Vincent Stuart to the House Armed Services Committee on February 3, 2015: ow.ly/Iz4Az

Quick Hits:

--“China 'closely watching' Kim's possible visit to Russia." By the Yonhap News Agency. http://bit.ly/16psyKf

--“Supporters Say Imprisoned Nun Is Being Held In 'Unfair' Conditions,” by Carrie Johnson for NPR. http://n.pr/1CBbM97

--“Obama in India; Xi in Pakistan,” by Michael Krepon in Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/1vvW5Ow

--“North Korea’s Nuclear Weapons: The Great Miniaturization Debate,” by Jeffrey Lewis in 38 North. http://bit.ly/1zop1rj

Events:

--“A Visit to Tehran: Outlook for U.S.-Iran Relations." Featuring former Rep. Jim Slattery (KS). February 9 at 2:00 p.m. at the Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington DC. Register online. http://bit.ly/1Df9zNk

--“Iran Nuclear Talks: Truths and Tall Tales from Tehran and Tel-Aviv." Featuring Ori Rabinowitz, author of Bargaining on Nuclear Tests: Washington and its Cold War Deals, and Ariane Tabatabai, Georgetown University. February 11 from 10:00 a.m.-Noon. Located at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 1400 K St. NW, Suite 1225, Washington DC. RSVP by February 9 online. http://1.usa.gov/1z6uT8k

--“Nuclear Bargains Reviewed: Washington's Cold War Nuclear Deals and What They Mean for Iran. Featuring Or Rabinowitz, King's College London. February 13 from 1:00-2:30 p.m. Located at the Wilson Center, Fifth Floor, Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave. NW, Washington DC. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1v1CLmy

--Annual “Nuclear Deterrence Summit.” February 17-20 at the Omni Shoreham Hotel, 2500 Calvert St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1zG0IUF

Dessert:

Weird moves - U.S. and Iranian hardliners got the Daily Show treatment last night. “For the first time, a deal might be possible.... as long as no one makes any weird moves.” Watch the full segment here: http://on.cc.com/16pufaq