Former Iraq Commander Urges Support for Diplomacy

On the radar: Vets against sanctions; Centrifuge “compromise”; Gang leaders and nukes; North Korea nixes new talks; NATO to talk nuke strategy; the Consequence of war; and PR for the bomber.

February 4, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

Vets for diplomacy - “Some in Congress have opposed the talks from day one. Others are saying it is time to impose new sanctions. This is shortsighted and unhelpful.” Former Iraq War commander Major General Paul Eaton (USA, ret.) makes the case for negotiations and against additional sanctions in a new video for VoteVets.org.

--“People in Congress who root for the deal to fail have not thought through the alternatives, which are stark: The Iranian program will be limited diplomatically, or we will have a war.” Watch the full video here. http://bit.ly/1EGlaJn

Progress? - The U.S. and Iran are nearing agreement on the number of centrifuges Iran will be allowed under a comprehensive nuclear agreement, diplomats tell the Associated Press. Constraints on uranium production and stockpiles could provide assurances to West in exchange for a higher number of operating centrifuges. http://wapo.st/1Ctqr6n

Caution - “I think this [AP] report is reading too much into some of the innovative ideas that have been on the table, but not yet finalized,” Ali Vaez of the International Crisis Group said of the reported centrifuge compromise. “The negotiators are no longer moving in circles. It’s more like an upward spiral now. But there is no silver bullet solution that can all of a sudden resolve the enrichment issue.” The Guardian’s Julian Borger and Saeed Kamali Dehghan report. http://bit.ly/1uXvtA6

More missile scandals - “A Minot Air Force Base, North Dakota, missileer whom the Air Force said was the leader of a violent street gang that arranged for the exchange of money for sex with underage girls, distributed drugs and gave alcohol to teenagers was sentenced in December to 25 years in prison and a dismissal, the Air Force said Friday.” Full story in the Air Force Times. http://bit.ly/1K4ENuS

NATO talks nukes - NATO defense ministers are expected to meet on Thursday “to approve further measures to enhance the organization's ability to deter and, if necessary, respond to military threats from Moscow,” reports John-Thor Dahlburg for the Associated Press. “A session is also planned on issues related to the effectiveness, safety and security of NATO's nuclear deterrent.” Full story here. http://1.usa.gov/1AsiHAH

--See also: “Kremlin pursues military modernization despite economic woes,” by Vladimir Isachenkov for the Associated Press. http://1.usa.gov/1Cvg2Hk

Costly consequences - “Israel should stay a million miles away from that decision” to use military force to set back Iran’s nuclear program, writes Tom Friedman of The New York Times.

--“If we do have to strike Iran, plenty of Americans will not be happy. And if it fails, or has costly consequences for us and our military, you can be sure a lot more Americans will not be happy — and some will ask, “How did we get into this mess?” One of the first things they’ll dig out will be Netanyahu’s speech to Congress.” http://nyti.ms/1DxSTAB

No NK talks - North Korea has rejected resuming the six-party negotiations on denuclearization, vowing “final doom” on the “gangster-like” United States. The move comes after recent hints from both sides that new talks may be possible. AFP reports. http://yhoo.it/1yHjdWb

Nuclear bow wave - The president’s budget request includes increases across the board for many nuclear weapons programs. But that’s just the tip of the iceberg. Many of the nukes bills come due in future years. Bill Sweetman takes a deep dive into the budget numbers for Aerospace Daily & Defense Report. http://bit.ly/1F5R53q

Tweet - @TomCollina: Carter on #nuclear sub plan: "It makes the most sense to include the [new sub] in the shipbuilding account.” http://t.co/iznal3wuVu

Consensus against sanctions - “The message to the U.S. Congress from the administration and from Western Iran experts is clear and unambiguous: let the process play out to the best of its ability, without any interruptions or speed-bumps that could torpedo one of the first major acts of diplomacy that the United States and Iran have had over the past thirty-five years,” writes Daniel R. DePetris in The National Interest.

--“If Congress wants to pass an additional sanctions package, it is certainly within their power to do so. But the very least the body can do is wait until late June, when Americans, Iranians, and the rest of the international community will be able to determine whether a permanent deal is achievable.” http://bit.ly/1LIRU6M

Quick Hits:

--“U.S. to lead redesign of Raytheon missile defense ‘kill vehicle,’” by Andrea Shalal for Reuters. http://reut.rs/1Dy06Rm

--“Iran denies US claim that nuclear talks include missiles,” by Arash Karami in Al-Monitor. http://bit.ly/1BUCVyD

--“Netanyahu and Boehner are wrong to think they know what Iran wants,” by Barnett Rubin in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1zIZ7ix

Events:

--"And Then What? Imagining the Middle East if Nuclear Negotiations with Iran Fail," featuring Gary Samore, Belfer Center; Shai Feldman, Brandeis University; Alexei Arbatov, Carnegie Moscow Center; and Seyed Hossein Mousavian, Princeton University. February 4, Noon-2:00 p.m. Harvard University, Belfer Center Library, Littauer 369, Cambridge, MA. http://bit.ly/1uR68aZ

--"A Visit to Tehran: Outlook for U.S.-Iran Relations," featuring former Rep. Jim Slattery (KS). February 9, 2:00 p.m., Atlantic Council, 12th Floor, 1030 15th St. NW, Washington. Register online. http://bit.ly/1Df9zNk

--"Iran Nuclear Talks: Truths and Tall Tales from Tehran and Tel-Aviv." Featuring Ori Rabinowitz, author of Bargaining on Nuclear Tests: Washington and its Cold War Deals, and Ariane Tabatabai, Georgetown University. February 11 from 10:00 a.m.-Noon. Located at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies, 1400 K St. NW, Suite 1225, Washington DC. RSVP by February 9 online. http://1.usa.gov/1z6uT8k

Dessert:

Defense-Industrial marketing - “How many American consumers are looking to purchase a new long-range stealth super-bomber? None. So why would Northrop Grumman spend big bucks on a glitzy ad and pay to have it run in Washington, DC and Dayton, Ohio during the Super Bowl?” Because America’s next stealth bomber could make or break the companies that are bidding for it.

--“Considering the dollar figures at stake, with projections ranging from $55B to well over $100B just for the aircraft's acquisition and development alone, a high-end commercial that millions in the country will most likely see sometime over its running is just a drop in the bucket and in some ways a very smart tactical move. Being able to also take that same ad and strategically place it in front of decision makers eyes a massive added bonus. Full story by Tyler Rogoway for Foxtrot Alpha. http://bit.ly/1KrAPe1