With Reductions Stalled, Nuclear Upgrades Continue

On the radar: The president’s nuclear contradiction; a Deal comes first; Deadly blast at Parchin; Yongbyong appears to be shut down; ISIS nukes scheme makes no sense; That time we nuked Alaska; and Sec. Moniz takes a news quiz.

October 6, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

After Prague, nuclear buildup - “Does a trillion dollars of new missiles, new bombers, new warheads really fit in with Obama’s vision of working towards a nuclear-free world?” asks Steve Kornacki of MSNBC after reporting on a New York Times story on the Obama administration’s nuclear weapons modernization plans. Kornacki interviewed journalist David Sanger and explored why the nuclear status quo has largely prevailed under a president who sought to change it.

--Sanger notes that while the president’s nuclear upgrade plans have continued at pace, the president’s nuclear reductions agenda has stalled. This produced a contradiction of a president who wants to eliminate nuclear weapons but is having more success at upgrading the entire U.S. nuclear arsenal.

--“The Russians aren’t interested [in new reductions] and, with the actions we’ve seen in Ukraine, its impossible to imagine Vladimir Putin could get interested in it now or that the President could get it ratified if it happened. And the President doesn’t want to act unilaterally to cut the size of our arsenal even though some of his former top aides...have said we could probably cut them by a third or more,” said Sanger. See the full interview here. http://on.msnbc.com/10EZT1E

Nuclear bonus - “ICBM bonus pay now in effect” reports Jenn Rowell for The Great Falls Tribune. Full story here. http://bit.ly/1trMBwm

Tweet - @FAScientists: Transcript of 1954 Atomic Energy Commission hearing to revoke Oppenheimer security clearance fully declassified: http://t.co/NgqnLMfeTU

Negotiations and collaboration - “A seductive idea is gaining ground among the West’s foreign-policy ‘realists’ - with a bit of boldness America and Iran could end their mutually destructive enmity of the past 35 years and, in so doing, take a giant step towards resolving the conflicts that have brought misery to a large part of the Middle East.” The Economist asks if this could mean that America’s fight against ISIS will hasten a nuclear deal with Iran. The answer: “Probably not.”

--Iranian President Hassan Rouhani emphasized at several points during his recent UNGA speech that if a nuclear agreement could be reached, he had “no doubt that the situation between the US and Iran will be completely different”; there were “many potential areas of co-operation in the future”. A good deal on Iran’s nuclear program would certainly be key to increased cooperation between the US and Iran. However, it would be unrealistic to expect that any meaningful cooperation can happen before a deal is reached. Read the full story here. http://econ.st/YULQU0

Explosion at Parchin - “A fire and explosion at a military explosives facility near the Iranian capital Tehran has left at least two people dead” reports the BBC. The semi-official Iranian Students News Agency (ISNA) said the fire was in an ‘explosive materials production unit’...Parchin has been linked to Iran's controversial nuclear programme.” Full story here. http://bbc.in/1vID47H

Tweet - @anshellpfeffer: I know we're all excited by this mysterious fire at Parchin but all trace of nuclear weapons testing there was obliterated ages ago #iran

Yongbyon shutdown - “North Korea may have shut down a recently restarted reactor which can yield plutonium for bombs, possibly for renovation or partial refuelling, a U.S. security institute said, citing new satellite imagery...Early last month, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) said in an annual report on North Korea that it had seen via satellite imagery releases of steam and water indicating that the Yongbyon reactor may be operating.”

--The suspected closing of the reactor comes on the heels of a surprise visit by the highest ranking North Korean officials to ever visit the South. The official rhetoric is that they were attend the closing ceremonies of the Asian games, but are understood to have addressed the easing of tensions between the two countries. Read the full story from Reuters here. http://reut.rs/1n9Wzpd

Nuking the Aleutians - “On Nov. 6, 1971, the United States conducted its most powerful underground nuclear test to date. The massive, five-megaton blast detonated more than a mile below remote, windswept Amchitka Island in Alaska,” registered a 7.0 on the richter scale.

--Calling it controversial would be an understatement. “The Cannikin shot tested a huge warhead the Pentagon planned to fit to a controversial anti-ballistic missile system. Its novel design drew from an equally controversial civilian nuclear explosive program. And America’s most controversial president demanded the test take place. And the tech in question inspired a later president to propose another controversial ABM system. You see? Controversial.” Steve Weintz has the full story for War is Boring. http://bit.ly/1trwFu0

Wait, what? - “ISIS militants in Iraq plan to invade Iran to seize details of its nuclear programme and give it to Moscow, in exchange for help defeating Syrian president Bashar al-Assad, the Sunday Times claims. According to the newspaper, an ISIS (Islamic State) manifesto, believed to be written by its commander Abdullah Ahmed al-Meshedani, states the militant group is planning to take its battle to Iran, to obtain Tehran's nuclear secrets.” Read the full story from Vasudevan Sridharan for International Business Times. http://bit.ly/1BIFh3E

Attribution report - “Transforming Nuclear Attribution: Culture, Community, and Change” by the Office of the Director of National Intelligence. July, 2009. (pdf) http://bit.ly/10F1XGQ

Events:

--“Unmaking the Bomb: A Fissile Material Approach to Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation,” featuring Zia Mian, Alexander Glaser and George Perkovich. October 7, 3:30 - 5:00pm at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Details here. http://ceip.org/1vpfWMd

--”How to Avoid a New Cold War,” with Dr. Samuel Charap and Dr. Dana Allin. Hosted by IISS-US and SAIS - European and Eurasian Studies Program. Tuesday, Oct. 7, 6:00pm in the Rome Building - Room 806, 1619 Massachusetts Ave, NW Washington, DC 20037. A light reception will follow. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1rT0d7l

--”The Governance of the Nuclear Security Enterprise,” featuring Norm Augustine, Congressional Panel on the Governance of the Nuclear Security Enterprise. 12:15-1:30 p.m., Oct. 9, University of Maryland. 1203 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD. Details here. http://bit.ly/10moaJr

--“Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons Aboard MV Cape Ray,” featuring Timothy Blades, Edgewood Chemical Biological Center. 12:30-2:00 p.m., Oct. 10, National Defense University, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, 300 Fifth Ave. SW, Fort McNair, Washington. Off the record. RSVP to Nima Gerami at Nima.Gerami@ndu.edu.

--“Preventing Proliferation and Advancing Nuclear Disarmament.” Annual Meeting of the Arms Control Association. Oct. 20, 9:30am - 2:30pm at the Carnegie Endowment. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1uGHZnS

Dessert:

Secretary Moniz, aka Ernie - Ernest Moniz, the U.S. Secretary of Energy was on Wait, Wait...Don’t Tell Me! this weekend. As host Peter Sagel said, “he is probably the smartest person in President Obama's Cabinet, but he certainly has the best hair.” Despite locks, brains and a cool job, Moniz apparently doesn’t get to take nukes home from the office, “just the occasional picture.” Listen to the full segment here. http://n.pr/1tpWTNh