Russia’s Nuclear Plans: Rhetoric Outpacing Reality

October 7, 2014 | Edited by Will Saetren and Jacob Marx

Plans vs reality - The U.S. isn’t the only country with unrealistic nuclear modernization plans. Russia is pursuing a force overhaul with a deadline for 2020 that it technologically cannot meet and strategically does not need. As Alexander Golts writes in The Moscow Times, that might be aside from the point. The problem is instead “Nuclear Euphoria.”

--“Here we have ostensibly well-adjusted businesspeople and public servants convincing their fellow citizens that they should take pride in Russia waging an undeclared war on a neighboring country and annexing part of its territory — and knowing that nobody can stop Russia because it has the ability to destroy all life on this planet...I must say that even Soviet propagandists never allowed themselves to speak so flippantly about the prospect of nuclear war.”

--A bevy of technological and economic issues make “Russia's nuclear forces [modernization] by 2020 an illusory dream.” The Navy would have to replace a total of seven submarines, and the Air Force would have to replace all of its bombers. Ground missiles are an even bigger concern, with the most important platform still in the developmental stage. “Western sanctions will also have an impact. Now, Russia will have to first manufacture the necessary machinery needed to even begin production of the new missiles.” Read the full column. http://bit.ly/ZPXOQe

Tweet - @ArmsControlWonk: ICYMI podcast: Why Russia still threatens to nuke us: http://bit.ly/ZewVVm

Classic misdirection - “A surprise visit by a senior North Korea delegation to South Korea and the disappearance from public view of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un for the past month have triggered speculation about Kim's health and the stability of his government,” writes David Brunnstrom for Reuters. “U.S. analysts say both can just as easily be interpreted as diplomatic tactics by Pyongyang, aimed at dividing and weakening international pressure over its nuclear weapons programme and human rights record as well as propaganda for domestic consumption.” Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1uwTuka

If North Korea behaves, worry - “It has been 18 months since North Korea's last major provocation, a nuclear test in February 2013,” writes Joel Witt and Jenny Town in Foreign Policy. “Aside from periodic rhetorical outbursts from Pyongyang that the world has come to know and love, North Korea has since then been surprisingly quiet: no nuclear tests, no long-range rocket tests, and no attacks on South Korea.”

--Despite North Korea’s seemingly good behavior, Witt and Town point to five reasons that the U.S. should be concerned about recent developments in the Hermit Kingdom: North Korea has upgraded its main rocket-launch site; North Korea is ramping up fissile material production; Development of a mobile intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) has reached a new stage; the North is perfecting solid-fuel technology for its missiles; Its molybdenum production is also growing. Read the full analysis here. http://atfp.co/1uwX0uZ

Iran and other nuclear hedgers - Japan has one of the world’s most advanced uranium and plutonium production programs but is so transparent with the IAEA that it raises little alarm about any possible nuclear weapons pursuits. Iran, with a primitive and insufficiently transparent capacity, is another story, writes Mark Fitzpatrick for Survival.

--Fitzpatrick writes that the difference between Japan’s nuclear latency and Iran’s nuclear hedging - or “latency with attitude”, as Fitzpatrick dubbed it - has a lot to do with intention and transparency.“Should negotiators reach a comprehensive deal [with Iran], the limits on Iran’s nuclear programme should not be lifted quickly. As a concomitant factor of nuclear energy, some degree of nuclear latency is unavoidable. But allowing nuclear hedging for a country with Iran’s attitudes should be avoided for as long as possible,” writes Fitzpatrick. Full column here. http://bit.ly/1rf5DnT

Compromise needed - The obstacles that remain in the pursuit of a nuclear deal over Iran’s nuclear program are “more political than technical,” writes Camelia Entekhabi-Fard for Al Arabiya News. With timing running out before a November 24 deadline to reach an agreement, both sides must reevaluate their bottom lines.

--“The U.S. wants Iran to act as a responsible member of the international community and commit itself not only to limiting its nuclear program, but also changing its regional behavior. For Iran, limiting their nuclear program is tantamount to limiting the revolution’s value. [Reaching a compromise] requires courage on the Islamic Republic’s part, as well as the U.S.’s recognition of Iran as a regional power. Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1vKHtXE

Humanitarian aid caught by sanctions - “International banks are shying away from processing humanitarian deals with Iran for fear being fined for breaking Western sanctions, despite moves intended to facilitate the trade,” reports Jonathan Shul for Reuters.

--"The (international) banks just do not want to take the risk...They understand and tell us that the rules and regulations are there. But they say the expected return is not enough to justify the risk. They tell us, 'if anything goes wrong, we would be faced with huge fines’. And this is what happens with 99 percent of the banking system outside of Iran,” said Parviz Aghili, chief executive of Middle East Bank. Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1uwUIff

Report: - “Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty: Background and Current Developments ” by the Congressional Research Service. September 29, 2014. (pdf) http://bit.ly/1vO95db

MEADS vs. Patriot - “A senior German government source said on Monday a decision over whether to continue to develop the MEADS missile defense system, or modernize the existing Patriot system, could come in 2015, once technical and legal questions have been clarified.” The US, Italy and Germany spent about $3.4 billion developing the system over the past decade, before Washington decided withdraw funding for the project in 2012. Read the full report from Reuters here. http://reut.rs/1qahGm6

Quick Hits:

--“Sherwood-Randall sworn in as deputy energy secretary,” by Timothy Cama in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1s8hsTl

--“Nuclear Weapons Policy Incoherent” by Douglas Roche in the Edmonton Journal. http://bit.ly/1CRUbqL

Events:

--“Unmaking the Bomb: A Fissile Material Approach to Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation,” featuring Zia Mian, Alexander Glaser and George Perkovich. October 7, 3:30 - 5:00pm at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Details here. http://ceip.org/1vpfWMd

--“How to Avoid a New Cold War,” with Dr. Samuel Charap and Dr. Dana Allin. Hosted by IISS-US and SAIS - European and Eurasian Studies Program. Tuesday, Oct. 7, 6:00pm in the Rome Building - Room 806, 1619 Massachusetts Ave, NW Washington, DC 20037. A light reception will follow. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1rT0d7l

--“The Governance of the Nuclear Security Enterprise,” featuring Norm Augustine, Congressional Panel on the Governance of the Nuclear Security Enterprise. 12:15-1:30 p.m., Oct. 9, University of Maryland. 1203 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD. Details here. http://bit.ly/10moaJr

--“Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons Aboard MV Cape Ray,” featuring Timothy Blades, Edgewood Chemical Biological Center. 12:30-2:00 p.m., Oct. 10, National Defense University, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, 300 Fifth Ave. SW, Fort McNair, Washington. Off the record. RSVP to Nima Gerami at Nima.Gerami@ndu.edu.

--“Preventing Proliferation and Advancing Nuclear Disarmament.” Annual Meeting of the Arms Control Association. Oct. 20, 9:30am - 2:30pm at the Carnegie Endowment. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1uGHZnS

Dessert:

Too much cheese? - The recent weight gain and public absence of North Korea’s Kim Jong Un has lead to speculation about his health. Could too much swiss cheese be part of the problem? The Colbert Report investigates. http://on.cc.com/1rreVTS

Go Nats! - The Ploughshares Fund mothership is in San Francisco, but Early Warning is written in our DC office. It’s been a rough few days, as the Nationals and Giants square up in the playoffs. So this one goes out to our SF colleagues:

--Tweet: @Nationals: WATCH: Bryce. Harper. BOOM. #IBelieve #NothingButOctober http://t.co/VlZ2gF4Oce