U.S., Russia Slow Rolling New START’s Modest Reductions

On the radar: Treaty counts fluctuate; Mabus wants nuclear spending debate; House letter to Kerry; Deal better than any alternative; Rouhani’s misread; IAEA heads to Tehran; and Iran’s business calculations.

October 3, 2014 | Edited by Jacob Marx and Will Saetren

Don’t stop START - “Three and a half years after the New START Treaty entered into force in February 2011, many would probably expect that the United States and Russia had decisively reduced their deployed strategic nuclear weapons. On the contrary, the latest aggregate treaty data shows that the two nuclear superpowers both increased their deployed nuclear forces compared with March 2014 when the previous count was made,” writes Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.

--“Before arms control opponents in Congress get their banners out, however, it is important to remind that these changes do not reflect a build-up the Russian nuclear arsenal. The increase results from the deployment of new missiles and fluctuations caused by existing launchers moving in and out of overhaul. Hundreds of Russian missiles will be retired over the next decade. The size of the Russian arsenals will most likely continue to decrease over the next decade.”

--“Russia and the United States need to do more to reduce their nuclear arsenals faster. The lackluster performance in implementing and following up on the New START Treaty, as well as the extensive nuclear weapons modernization underway in both countries, mean that the two nuclear superpowers will have very little to show at next year’s nuclear NPT review conference in New York to demonstrate how they are meeting their obligations and promises made under the treaty to reduce and eventually eliminate nuclear weapons.”

--“Neither Russia nor the United States can afford the expensive nuclear weapon modernization programs currently underway to sustain their large arsenals. And they certainly cannot afford to weaken the support of the non-proliferation treaty regime in strengthening efforts to halt and curtail the proliferation of the nuclear weapons.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/Zw3y1i

Debate - “Navy Secretary Ray Mabus said the nation must start a debate now on whether to maintain all three legs of the strategic nuclear-deterrent triad” as the Navy prepares to build a replacement for the Ohio-class ballistic missile submarines. “That debate cannot wait until 2020, when the Navy must start building the first of the new missile-carrying subs, Mabus told the Defense Writers Group on Sept. 30.”

--“Each of the new ‘boomers,’ estimated to cost at least $7 billion, would consume half of the normal annual shipbuilding budget for 12 years, leaving little to buy all the other ships the Navy needs, he said. And if the Navy shifts the cost outside shipbuilding ‘it will break something else’.” Otto Kreisher has the full story for Seapower. http://bit.ly/1rHf17h

Tweet - @Cirincione: Fact Sheet: Government, Former Government Officials Agree: U.S. Nuclear Weapons Spending Plans Enormously Costly http://t.co/l39SNFd8LM

House letter - “Three hundred and fifty-four members - four-fifths - of the U.S. House of Representatives signed the letter sent to Kerry on Wednesday night, expressing concerns that an agreement on Iran's nuclear program might not require sufficiently strict inspections of its nuclear facilities,” writes Patricia Zengerle for Reuters. Full article here. http://reut.rs/1rRsdrx

Read the letter, penned by Reps. Ed Royce (R-CA) and Eliott Engel (D-NY). (pdf) http://1.usa.gov/1vctQyY

The only good option - “The options in dealing with Iran’s nuclear program are stark: a comprehensive agreement in which the international community has on-the-ground knowledge of Iran’s nuclear activities or a situation similar to today where lack of communication and transparency could prompt the United States to take military action against Iran,” writes Erica Fein of Women’s Action for New Directions.

--“Given the great progress we’ve already made, the worst thing we could do between now and [conclusion of an agreement] is obstruct the negotiators from using all their leverage to get a good deal...Congress must give diplomacy a chance. With the United States sliding back into another war in the region, this is not an issue that we can afford to screw up. Prudent diplomacy and negotiations can result in an Iran incapable of developing nuclear weapons while avoiding a senseless loss of life and treasure.” Read her full column in The Hill. http://bit.ly/1vj0IWL

Iran’s strategic misread - “Last week's New York visit by Iranian president Hassan Rouhani...clarified for Americans and the world that Iran's strategy is to play out the clock on the approaching deadline for securing a comprehensive deal and to wield its role in the intensifying regional turmoil as leverage in securing more favorable terms. This strategy, while perfectly rational from an Iranian perspective, is almost certain to produce a disastrous outcome for Iran, the region, and the world,” writes Suzanne Maloney for Brookings.

--“A deal that satisfies the maximalist imperatives of hardliners...is not a viable construct. The U.S. explicitly conceded this last November, and President Obama himself made a strenuous case for the interim deal and its hard-fought compromise of continuing Iranian enrichment over howls of opposition from Congress and U.S. regional allies. He has largely won the point; the demand for zero enrichment has mostly faded from the debate...Obama's political courage has not yet been matched in Tehran.” Full column here. http://bit.ly/1yC1Fj8

In from the cold - “A deal that offers Iran a nuclear power industry not exceeding its needs and ambitions, and the rest of the world reassurance through intrusive inspections, would do more than bring Iran in from the cold,” writes Christopher de Bellaigue in The Guardian. “It would inaugurate a new relationship between the Islamic Republic and the west that could keep together a region that is, in every other particular, coming apart.” http://bit.ly/1rSDg4b

Economic opportunity - “With US-Iranian nuclear negotiations reaching their deadline this November, business around the world are waiting in nervous anticipation to re-engage with one of the world’s largest economies. Even with heavy sanctions, Iran was the world's 21st largest economy two years ago. The country is rich in high-demand natural resources, has an educated workforce, and increasingly well-developed processing and manufacturing capabilities,” writes Ben Winsor.

--“’I see tremendous opportunities for American companies, but quite honestly European companies right now are stealing their lunch,’ former Canadian Ambassador to the United Arab Emirates, Ken Lewis, told a group of Iranian Americans at a conference in Washington last week....If the sanctions are lifted it could have significant global ramifications. ‘[The] world’s largest reserves of gas suddenly become unfettered...and the second largest reserves of rare earths could end Chinese dominance in rare earths’.” Full article on the outlook for business with Iran - deal or no deal - from Business Insider. http://read.bi/1uhUV5K

Tweet - @tparsi: If you view nuclear talks only from a nuclear perspective, you'll miss all that'll be lost if a deal isnt reached @Cirincione @jrcole #iran

IAEA to Tehran - “A high-level U.N. nuclear watchdog team will visit Tehran for talks in coming days, Iran said on Friday, more than a month after it missed a deadline for addressing questions about its suspected atomic bomb research,” reports Fredrik Dahl for Reuters. Although steps to further the IAEA investigation have been widely anticipated, the details of the the meeting were leaked to the press before they were formally announced. Read the full story here. http://reut.rs/1E8NUZo

Contingency plans - “There are still nearly two months to go before the deadline for an Iran nuclear agreement,” writes Barbara Slavin for Voice of America. However, as Iranian President Hassan Rouhani said in his UNGA speech last week it would be prudent to plan for the eventuality that a deal is not reached. “Everything is based on the expectation — God willing — that we will reach success...[but that] doesn’t mean if we fail to reach agreement, we will go back to the past.”

--”Hopefully, having a Plan B will not doom efforts to achieve Plan A, which offers far more benefits for international peace and security and a rosier future for the Iranian people.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1BDnhb8

Quick Hit:

--”Fact Sheet: Government, Former Government Officials Agree: U.S. Nuclear Weapons Spending Plans Enormously Costly,” by the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation. http://bit.ly/1pwslrW

--”Hold the line with Iran,” an editorial from The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1tnky0Q

Events:

--“The UK Strategic Nuclear Deterrent and the Chevaline Program: An Overview,” featuring Matthew Jones, Professor of International History at the London School of Economics. Oct. 3, 12:00pm - 2:00pm, hosted by the Nuclear Proliferation International History Project at the Woodrow Wilson Center. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1qyEuvE

--"The Future of U.S. Extended Deterrence in East Asia," featuring Richard Armitage, Armitage International, and Kurt Campbell, The Asia Group. 8:30 a.m., Oct. 6, Atlantic Council, 1030 15th St. NW, 12th Floor, West Tower, Washington. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1uKYbV9

--Public meeting for the Commission to Review the Effectiveness of the National Energy Laboratories. Oct. 6, 10:00am - 3:30pm in Alexandria, VA. Details here. http://1.usa.gov/1udhOIV

--“Unmaking the Bomb: A Fissile Material Approach to Nuclear Disarmament and Nonproliferation,” featuring Zia Mian, Alexander Glaser and George Perkovich. October 7, 3:30 - 5:00pm at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. Details here. http://ceip.org/1vpfWMd

--”How to Avoid a New Cold War,” with Dr. Samuel Charap and Dr. Dana Allin. Hosted by IISS-US and SAIS - European and Eurasian Studies Program. Tuesday, Oct. 7, 6:00pm in the Rome Building - Room 806, 1619 Massachusetts Ave, NW Washington, DC 20037. A light reception will follow. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1rT0d7l

--”The Governance of the Nuclear Security Enterprise,” featuring Norm Augustine, Congressional Panel on the Governance of the Nuclear Security Enterprise. 12:15-1:30 p.m., Oct. 9, University of Maryland. 1203 Van Munching Hall, College Park, MD. Details here. http://bit.ly/10moaJr

--“Destroying Syria’s Chemical Weapons Aboard MV Cape Ray,” featuring Timothy Blades, Edgewood Chemical Biological Center. 12:30-2:00 p.m., Oct. 10, National Defense University, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, 300 Fifth Ave. SW, Fort McNair, Washington. Off the record. RSVP to Nima Gerami at Nima.Gerami@ndu.edu.

--“Preventing Proliferation and Advancing Nuclear Disarmament.” Annual Meeting of the Arms Control Association. Oct. 20, 9:30am - 2:30pm at the Carnegie Endowment. RSVP here. http://bit.ly/1uGHZnS