Missile Defense and Strategic Instability

On the radar: Russia, China, and U.S. missile defenses; Countering nuclear terrorism; Coercive diplomacy; Uncertainty in UPF costs; UK and the military option; Previewing the Iran talks; Israel’s nukes; and Skydiving from a reentering spaceship.

October 29th, 2012 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski and Marianne Nari Fisher

Missile defense effects - China is reportedly expanding its nuclear arsenal, while Russia is modernizing and resisting bilateral nuclear reductions. Both countries may be responding to U.S. missile defense plans, writes ACA’s Tom Collina in Foreign Policy.

--“By planning to counter long-range missile threats in Iran and North Korea that do not yet exist, Washington is making it more difficult to reduce threats from Russia and China that are all too real,” Collina concludes. “Will the United States continue to chase potential future threats with inherently unreliable defenses, or will it instead prioritize working with Russia and China to reduce the real threats we face today?” http://bit.ly/VtL08x

Still a priority - Nuclear terrorism has faded from the public consciousness, but remains a serious national security threat. Working to reduce HEU stockpiles, secure fissile materials, and negotiating a new Nunn-Lugar agreement with Russia are steps the next president must take to address this threat, write CFR’s Michael Levi and Micah Zenko. http://usat.ly/PeBhow

Careful what you wish for - “An agreement that is reached solely through coercion will only endure as long as the same level of coercive pressure remains credible. ” “The more one-sided the deal...the more likely Iran is to renege and the more the U.S. and Israel will have to watch it like hawks for any sign of slippage,” writes Stephen Walt in Foreign Policy.

--“In order to last, there has to be something in it for them, both in terms of tangible benefits but also in terms of acknowledging Iranian interests and national pride.” Walt concludes. “Assuming we eventually get serious about negotiating with Tehran, we will need to look for a deal that satisfies our core interests. But we won't get everything we might want, and if we want it to stick, Iran will have to believe that it got something out of it too.” http://bit.ly/RnOZDF

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Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: As Hurricane Sandy bears down, re-upping @Nickolas_Roth on why nuclear weapons arent a good way to prevent major storms http://ow.ly/eQCqH

UPF math - The current high-end cost estimate for the Uranium Processing Facility is $6.5 billion - $500 million already spent, $4 billion in planned costs, and $2 billion in contingency, project director John Eschenberg explains.

--The broad range of contingency funding could hide additional costs, like redesigning the project after the original design proved faulty. The redesign costs may never be known. Frank Munger reports for the The Knoxville News Sentinel. http://bit.ly/S6V0DV

Quote - "The government does not believe military action against Iran is the right course of action at this moment, though no option is off the table," a UK government spokesman said. Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/VtcrPE

Iran talks - “There is the possibility of progress in the next round [of Iran nuclear talks], but it's going to require that both sides be more flexible and a little more creative,” ACA’s Daryl Kimball said in an interview with CFR.

--“Whatever happens after the election, the most important thing is that the P5+1 process resumes and that it be a much more dynamic negotiation that is not simply a reiteration of previous well-understood positions.” http://on.cfr.org/R7M4gl

MEWMDFZ - Israel has remained the only nuclear power in the Middle East for the last 45 years, maintaining conventional superiority over Arab capabilities and deterring conventional challenges. Israel’s nuclear capabilities have not and do not play a significant role in the country's defense, argues Uri Bar-Joseph in Foreign Affairs, adding that Israel should takes steps towards disarmament to encourage a nuclear weapons free Middle East. http://fam.ag/PUw4Du

Tweet - @Cirincione: You thought this was only in The Simpsons? @sciam: Radioactive Fish Near Fukushima Suggest Ongoing Contamination http://bit.ly/UJ2D8t

UK sub contact - The UK has awarded a $562 million contract for next generation nuclear-armed submarines to BAE Systems and Babcock. The announcement did not sit well with Scottish leaders, who are looking to close the submarine base in Scotland, and others who argue that the UK’s nuclear force is excessive in today’s strategic environment. http://bit.ly/Rhxbbu

Wanted: a real debate - Last week’s presidential debate fell far short of an informed discussion of U.S. policy towards Iran. “Unfortunately, the American people lost a chance to hear more about the very real contrasts between these two candidates on how they propose to prevent an Iranian nuclear bomb,” writes Ploughshares Fund’s Joel Rubin in The Hill. http://bit.ly/SdUbfB

60 percent HEU - An Iranian hint of producing 60 percent enriched uranium, much closer to weapons-grade, if the nuclear talks stall is cause for concern, a new ISIS report concludes. “Before Iran announces official plans to make highly enriched uranium, the United States and the other members of the P5+1 should quietly but clearly state to Iran what it risks by producing highly enriched uranium under any pretext.” http://bit.ly/UXyF0M

Skydiving - Before Felix Baumgartner, there was Yuri Gagarin, a Soviet cosmonaut who became the first person to orbit the earth on April 12, 1962. Gagarin ejected from his reentry capsules at 4.4 miles (23,000 ft) above the Earth and parachuted down to the ground.

--David Wright crunched the numbers and estimates that Gagarin was traveling at 500 mph, or Mach 0.72, when he ejected. This was actually safer than remaining in the capsule, which according to one observer, “fell, then it bounced and then it fell again...[leaving] a huge hole where it hit the first time.” Pictures, charts, and numbers on the UCS blog. http://bit.ly/XKrGrD