Outlook for Iran Policy After the Election

On the radar: Walt previews the next 4 years; Iran’s conversion; Domestic politics; Trident could go down to Georgia; Missile Crisis remembered on Halloween; Internal views on Iran’s economic plight; Paying for CTR; Obama record on Poland; and Cheaters still not prospering.

November 1st, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Iran and the next administration - “No matter who wins [the election on Tuesday], I suspect we'll see a new push for some sort of diplomatic deal with Iran,” says Stephen Walt at Foreign Policy. The US president will face an Iran that, while unlikely to cross any overt “red lines,” has a theoretical capacity to build a bomb if it chooses to do so, notes Walt.

--Even if the next president does not reach a formal diplomatic deal that ensures Iran’s nuclear program stays a civilian one, Walt argues that the next U.S. president will have to do exactly what has been done to deal with other nuclear threats: contain Iran’s influence, deter any aggressive action and strengthen security arrangements with key U.S. allies in the region. http://bit.ly/U0CXES

Conversion - Iran announced that it would convert 38% of its stockpile uranium to civilian fuel rods in August. Now, Israeli Defense Minister Ehud Barak is saying that this move may have delayed the confrontational “moment of truth” with Iran by at least 10 months. David Ignatius at the Washington Post has the story and looks at its political implication for the US election. http://wapo.st/Rxc4E9

Nuclear politics - Elections are driving the strategic calculations of the U.S., Iran, and Israel in the ongoing debate over Iran's nuclear program, writes the Washington Post’s Walter Pincus. Israeli official Ehud Barak may have been looking towards the Israeli elections when walking back Iran's nuclear timeline. The U.S. and Iran are watching the U.S. presidential elections before resuming talks.

--The final outcome of the nuclear crisis, whether a diplomatic deal or military action, may depend on domestic politics, Pincus concludes. http://wapo.st/QVpytb

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Book - “Nuclear Reset: Arms Reduction and Nonproliferation” by Alexei Arbatov, Vladimir Dvorkin and Natalia Bubnova for the Carnegie Moscow Center. http://bit.ly/Towltl

Queen’s Bay? - The UK is considering temporarily basing its nuclear submarines at the US submarine base at Kings Bay if Scotland votes for independence and kicks out the UK nuclear submarines homeported at Faslane. Elaine Grossman at Global Security Newswire has the story on options the UK is considering. http://bit.ly/Tci1pR

Not forgotten - Kennedy and Khrushchev evaded disaster 50 years ago during the Cuban Missile Crisis, but will we be so lucky again? Kingston Reif discusses Cold War mentalities that continue to drive policy on the hill, and calls for rolling back the current 5,000 warheads the US currently maintains.

--”Supporters of maintaining the nuclear status quo argue that by deterring war, nuclear weapons keep us safe. But the Cuban Missile Crisis provides clear evidence that deterrence is not fool-proof. The use of nuclear weapons is possible even if no one desires such an outcome, especially during a crisis in which military forces are on high alert, accurate information is hard to get, and events on the ground cannot be controlled.” Full post at The Hill. http://bit.ly/ToqLqX

Tweet - @CTBTO_alerts: 60 years ago today: 1st H-bomb 'Ivy Mike' with power of 700 Hiroshima #nuclear bombs, w/video: http://bit.ly/VFNwbX

Blame game - Iranian media is divided on assigning blame for Iran's economic troubles. Some point to government mismanagement. Others point to the UN and the West. The Iran Primer has an overview of Iranian media.

Picking up the tab - “It was probably inevitable” that Russia would one day dismiss Nunn-Lugar and start paying for its own nuclear security, writes Douglas Birch in Foreign Policy. Russia - the world’s ninth largest economy and one of the top oil producers - can afford to go without US nonproliferation aid.

--The question from experts is if Russia will continue to do the work and how to continue cooperative dialogues with Russia outside of the Nunn-Lugar framework. http://bit.ly/Q8H14r

Poland - Conservative politicians and pundits often claim that the Obama administration threw Poland under the bus by cancelling the Bush administration’s plans to base 10 ground-based missile defense interceptors in Poland. Not true, writes Stephen Flanagan, who argues that the administration actually strengthened relations with Poland.

--Included admin steps to enhance ties with Poland: providing air defense assets, enhancing joint training between American and Polish pilots, and bringing NATO support behind a missile defense plan that still includes basing interceptors in Poland. Foreign Policy has the post. http://bit.ly/Ukxh2X

Cheating - Guards at the Y-12 nuclear facility, where an 82-year old nun and two other peace protesters recently broke in, were allowed to review their recertification exam and its answers before taking the test. Worse, the Department of Energy enabled this cheating - making it routine practice for preparing contractors for the exam. Matthew Wald at The New York Times has the story. http://nyti.ms/Tc66bq