Countering Inaccuracies in Iran Reporting

On the radar: Detecting an Iranian breakout; Inspector General on mismanagement at DOE; Iran’s negotiating strategy; Securing China’s nukes; US-Israel war games; Russia’s “new” ICBM; and Ike on the military option.

October 25th, 2012 | Edited by Mary Kaszynski and Marianne Nari Fisher

Fact-check - Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal op-ed by Reul Marc Gerecht and Mark Dubowitz argued for a pre-emptive military strike against Iran based on the (incorrect) claim that infrequent IAEA inspections would not be able to detect a breakout.

--In fact, inspections of the nuclear facilities in question are conducted three to four times per month, including one or two unannounced inspections - not “about once a month,” as the authors claim. NIAC’s Jamal Abdi with the fact-check. http://huff.to/RWvTDr

--For a reliable assessment of Iran’s potential, refer to this ISIS report: “An Iranian breakout in the next year could not escape detection by the IAEA or the United States... Iran is unlikely to break out at Natanz or at Fordow in the near term, barring unforeseen developments such as a pre-emptive military strike.” (pdf) http://bit.ly/UAu99b

Report: DOE Management Challenges - Many of the problems highlighted in last year’s report on “Management Challenges at the Department of Energy” by DOE’s Inspector General are on this year’s watch list too.

--Unsurprisingly, the IG again found that mismanagement has allowed the costs of several nuclear modernization programs to spiral out of control. John Fleck reports for Albuquerque Journal. http://bit.ly/RIrMeU

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Quote - “I’m not saying that [a military strike] is the right answer. That is an option that I believe is short of war if it is very selective, very targeted, only to the nuclear program,” Rep. Mike Rogers (R-MI) said in a CNN interview yesterday. Think Progress has the full quote.http://bit.ly/S4XHJi

Less than diplomatic - Iran is considering a more confrontational tactic in the possible next round of nuclear talks: threatening to enrich above 20 percent unless the West eases sanctions, AP reports.

--The tougher line “suggests that economic pressures and diplomacy have pushed Iran to the point of considering an ultimatum-style end game.” http://n.pr/VpDImj

Nuclear security in China - While China’s nuclear security measures appear to be strong, room for improvement remains. Hui Zhang at the Bulletin recommends updating nuclear safety guidelines, increasing transparency, and strengthening cooperation with the IAEA and US DOE. http://bit.ly/Ti87oV

War Games - U.S. and Israeli forces are conducting their largest joint military exercises to date in what an Israeli general calls “a message of deterrence.” Full story from Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/RY4lxQ

Tweet - @strobetalbott: Video of @Cirincione, David Holloway, Scott Sagan & I reliving Cuban Missile Crisis and discussing lessons learned: http://vimeo.com/52042017

CRS Reports - “Navy Ohio Replacement (SSBN[X]) Ballistic Missile Submarine Program: Background and Issues for Congress” (pdf) http://bit.ly/b5cs9W

--“Navy Shipboard Lasers for Surface, Air, and Missile Defense: Background and Issues for Congress” (pdf) http://bit.ly/Lxrx3c

--“Managing the Nuclear Fuel Cycle: Policy Implications of Expanding Global Access to Nuclear Power” (pdf) http://bit.ly/fkTeE6

Lift-off - Russia successfully tested a “new” ICBM yesterday; due to the opaque nature of the launch, the class and type of this alleged new ICBM remains undetermined. Pavel Podvig at Russian Strategic Nuclear Forces blog has the story. http://bit.ly/SkBIND

DPRK still mysterious - North Korea’s nuclear program and the possibility of a third test remain a top concern for the U.S. and South Korea, military officials said in a joint press conference yesterday. But the opacity of the regime means North Korea’s next steps are difficult to predict. Chris Lawrence for CNN. http://bit.ly/RlCita

We like Ike - The next president will face some tough choices on Iran’s nuclear program, but he won’t be the first to weigh the consequences of a pre-emptive military strike. President Dwight D. Eisenhower considered the military option too - and refused to use it against the Soviet Union. CNN’s Evan Thomas on “when Ike faced down a rising nuclear power.” http://bit.ly/WLkVXs