Bringing Lasting Change to U.S. Nuclear Posture

On the radar: Implementing the nuclear posture review; the Limits of sanctions; MDA’s new director; Udall-Kyl on NNSA reform; Talbott on Obama’s 2nd term, legacy; and Vintage Bulletin covers.

November 21st, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

New posture -”Nuclear contingency plans are still based on Cold War planning factors, budgetary decisions on forces and modernization programs continue to assume we require forces large enough to promptly launch large numbers of warheads, and when arms control talks resume, US negotiators will be able to have only modest goals, as the ‘requirement’ for nuclear warheads will remain relatively high,” writes Barry Blechman.

--Obama administration plans for updating the nuclear posture were put on hold during the election season. Moving forward, Blechman encourages the administration to bring about real and lasting change to the U.S. nuclear posture, offering steps for policymakers to get the Nuclear Posture Review Implementation Study back on track.

--Recommendations: Hold a cabinet-level meeting on the posture review study, release unclassified summary version of the results, enlist Congressional support, brief key in allies and direct relevant agencies to accommodate changes. Full article from Stimson. http://bit.ly/Wu5EdR

Sanctions’ limited effects - "We are verifying the activities at the nuclear sites in Iran and we do not see any effect [from sanctions]. They are, for example, producing enriched uranium up to 5 percent and 20 percent with a quite constant pace,” said IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano in a press conference.

--Amano’s remarks came one day before senior officials from the P5+1 were to meet in Brussels to prepare a new diplomatic push with Iran. Reuters has the story. http://reut.rs/TXWUYS

Tweet - @Reuters: World powers to meet in Brussels to map out Iran plans reut.rs/QteJlR

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New MDA Chief - Vice Adm. James Syring assumed his position as Director of the Missile Defense Agency on Monday. Vice Adm. Syring takes the reigns from Lt. Gen. Patrick O’Reilly, after an internal investigation led to O’Reilly’s early retirement. From Global Security Newswire. http://bit.ly/QakyD6

Thailand joins PSI - Thailand is now the 102nd country to join the Proliferation Security initiative - a U.S.-led program to prevent the illegal transfer of WMD and missile components. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/TXYxFM

NNSA reform - Sen. Tom Udall (D-NM) and Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) have introduced an amendment to the Defense Authorization Bill asking for the establishment of the advisory panel that would suggest ways to reform the troubled National Nuclear Security Administration.

--”Among the directives in the amendment is a requirement that the panel consider whether oversight of the nation’s nuclear weapons complex should ‘remain with the administration or be transferred to another agency,’” writes Michael Coleman of The Albuquerque Journal. http://bit.ly/TY0cvb

Quote - “Obama had hoped to use momentum generated by the 2010 ratification of the ‘New Start’ arms treaty to persuade the Senate to do something it should have done 11 years earlier: ratify the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty, CTBT, a pact that would, if it had entered into force, be the culmination of a 50-year American initiative. Instead, the dynamic on Capitol Hill was the opposite of momentum: Republicans who had reluctantly approved New Start opposed CTBT, largely so as to deny Obama another victory,” writes Strobe Talbott of Brookings.

--”So what now? Will Obama succeed in his second term where he was frustrated in his first? The answer depends on how hard he tries and how willing the Republicans in Congress are to work with him” on issues like climate change and CTBT. Full piece from Yale Global. http://bit.ly/Uf4P6r

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