What Iron Dome Does Not Mean for Missile Defense

On the radar: Iron Dome isn’t Star Wars; After the reset and the elections; Talking to Pyongyang in Naypyidaw; Possible Gold standard with Taiwan; Cyber vulnerabilities and nuclear security; and the 2012 Atomic Turkey Award.

November 20th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Iron Dome fallacy - Israel’s Iron Dome missile defense system has demonstrated its effectiveness, with officials saying the 80-90% of intercepts were successful. This does not mean that proposals for a “missile shield” against nuclear-tipped ICBMs is feasible or strategically useful, writes Yousaf Butt.

--Butt notes the apples and oranges problem: Iron Dome succeeds at intercepting small, slow-moving, short-range, battlefield rockets. However, the U.S. has yet to show operational effectiveness for systems intended to intercept longer-ranged missiles that move ten times faster, travel outside of Earth’s atmosphere, and are capable of deploying countermeasures - a vastly more difficult scientific feat. Full post at Foreign Policy. http://bit.ly/T1j7Uy

WSJ undeterred - “Chalk up an important strategic and technological win for missile defense,” writes The Wall Street Journal in an editorial that praises Iron Dome, advocates for an East Coast missile defense site, and knocks Obama administration plans for missile defenses in Europe. http://on.wsj.com/WtmgT2

After the reset - “My sense is that for the last 18 months the Russians have been pretty much in a holding pattern on arms control and missile defense because they didn't want to go too far down the road with the Obama administration and then find that they were dealing with a Republican in 2013,” said Amb. Steven Pifer of Brookings.

--”They now know that answer, so the question is: Are they prepared to reengage in a more positive way on those questions?” said Amb. Pifer. Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty has the full interview, including Pifer’s recommendations on a missile defense deal. http://bit.ly/SbXYbE

Positioning - "We insist that the solution must meet two basic criteria. First, we need legal guarantees that what is happening in [the missile defense] sphere will not have a negative impact on the Russian nuclear deterrent potential. Second, we need some mechanism with the help of which we would independently verify whether these statements are true," said Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov during comments about arms control with the United States. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/RR0lk2

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Examples for Pyongyang - ”To the leadership of North Korea, I have offered a choice: let go of your nuclear weapons and choose the path of peace and progress. If you do, you will find an extended hand from the United States of America,” said President Obama yesterday in Rangoon, hinting that the warming of relations happening with Myanmar today is an example of what’s possible for North Korea.

--The President’s message to the Pyongyang was clear, but, given the deeply entrenched North Korean regime, it is difficult to see the North as showing Myanmar’s willingness to reform, writes Max Fisher at The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/UFQEmZ

Tweet - @IISS_org: If you missed our v. interesting #NKorea discussion Fri, catch up w/ video of @FitzpatrickIISS @fcaidan & @proflind http://bit.ly/Tds2Ws

Event - Acting Under Secretary of State Rose Gottemoeller and Russian Ambassador to the U.S. Sergey Kislyak discuss “The Cuban Missile Crisis: 50 Years Later.” Tues. Nov. 27th from 6:00-8:00pm at the Elliott School. RSVP and details here: http://bit.ly/Wt838s

Taiwan and the gold standard - Negotiations to renew Taiwan’s nuclear trade pact with the U.S. are soon to begin, and early speculation says that Taiwan could agree to the “gold standard” of nonproliferation by forgoing uranium enrichment or plutonium reprocessing under the new agreement. Global Security Newswire has the story. http://bit.ly/Wtgqkw

Tweet - @StateDept: Under Secretary Sherman will travel to Brussels, #Belgium from November 19-21 to participate in a P5+1 meeting. http://go.usa.gov/ga8F

Cyber security at nuclear facilities - A recent Department of Energy Inspector General report identified unaddressed cyber security weaknesses at the Department and the National Nuclear Security Administration.

--The IG report “identified various control weaknesses related to access controls, vulnerability management, system integrity of web applications, planning for continuity of operations and change control management." Global Security Newswire has the details. http://bit.ly/SbTnGq

Tweet - @thedeadhandbook: Declassified Pentagon History: U.S. C3 Vulnerabilities to Nuclear Attack through 1970s, amazing stuff @nsarchive http://bit.ly/Q6lR62

Science and proliferation - The International Science and Technology Center in Moscow once brought thousands of former Russian weapons scientists into civilian careers, helping curb proliferation. Decades after the Cold War, with funding down and Russia’s economic prospects up, it should not be a surprise that Russia is preparing to withdraw from the center. Glenn Schweitzer in The Bulletin writes about the legacy of the ISTC and offers next steps for promoting the responsible science for dual-use technologies. http://bit.ly/Wi6oOq

Tweet - @CarnegieNPP: Who do you think should win this year's Atomic Turkey Award for anti-arms control? Vote in our Thanksgiving poll! ow.ly/falYi