Debating Deterrence and Strategies Toward Iran

On the radar: Zakaria & Nasr debate Krauthammer & Yadlin; Consider scrapping NNSA; Iron Dome not comparable to US systems; N. Korea Launch looming; ME conference put off; Monterey fellowship; No interest in MOX; and Queen Noor & Valerie Plame on why elimination.

November 26th, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Marianne Nari Fisher

Debate - Can Iran be deterred? What effect would a nuclear Iran have on Israeli and international security? Fareed Zakaria and Vali Nasr will debate these questions with Charles Krauthammer and Amos Yadlin tonight in Toronto at the Munk Debates. Preview below.

--Krauthammer argues that a nuclear Iran would be deterrable, but deterrent arrangements with Iran would be unreliable because Iran might be more acceptant of the costs of nuclear war.

--Zakaria explains that the Iranian regime could be deterred, given that it is most concerned about its own survival - a key sign of its rationality. He also undercuts common assumptions that a nuclear Iran would automatically produce an arms race in the Middle East.

--Nasr writes, “Can we tolerate a nuclear Iran? The short answer is yes. We have already shown that we can live with troublesome and dangerous nuclear powers...The key question is not whether we can tolerate a nuclear Iran...[but] Can we tolerate a war with a country twice the size and with three times the landmass of Iraq, costing multiples of the Iraq war in both dollars and casualties?” Full arguments at The Globe and Mail. http://bit.ly/SoyLuG

On the chopping block - “Congress should approve [a panel to review options for reforming the National Nuclear Security Administration] but demand a report with clear recommendations that either put this turkey on the chopping block or figure out how to make it earn its feed,” writes the Albuquerque Journal.

--”The agency’s track record is appalling. Not only is it a questionable duplication to the DOE, it has turned the nuclear weapons complex into a bureaucratic quagmire that defies attempts at efficiency. Its inability to move forward with essential projects is itself a threat to our nuclear security,” writes the editorial board. http://bit.ly/Tp4cat

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Iron Dome - “While Iron Dome’s success is laudable, it’s not – as they like to say at the Pentagon – scalable,” says Mark Thompson. Thompson explains how Iron Dome and the United States’ “fledgling national missile defense system” are simply not comparable due to key differences of the threats they are intended to thwart. Full post at Battleland. http://ti.me/Tq435D

N. Korea missile test - “North Korea is preparing to launch another long-range ballistic missile, possibly by the end of the month, U.S. government officials told their Japanese and South Korean counterparts. But there is uncertainty over whether the launch would actually take place so soon with South Korea preparing for a presidential election in December,” reports Asahi Shimbun. http://bit.ly/TZ9vIR

ME conference delayed - A conference on a Middle East zone free of weapons of mass destruction, envisioned in the 2010 Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference Final Document, “cannot be convened because of present conditions in the Middle East and the fact that states in the region have not reached agreement on acceptable conditions for a conference,” said State Department spokesperson Victoria Nuland. The conference, intended to be convened in 2012, is now delayed indefinitely. http://1.usa.gov/S7Fyc8

Tweet - @armscontrolnow: UK expresses "regret" over postponement of MEWMDFZ Conference http://bit.ly/SlbgUQ

Event - “Less Is Better: Nuclear Restraint at Low Numbers” with James Acton, Malcolm Chalmers and Joan Rohlfing. November 27th from 3:30-6:00 at the Carnegie Endowment. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/T6bTlD

Tweet - @FitzpatrickIISS: Myanmar's acceptance of the IAEA Additional Protocol is a success for Obama. Iraq signed it too. Come on Brazil & Argentina; your turn.

Event - The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists’ fourth annual “Doomsday Clock Symposium” will be held all-day Thursday, November 29th. Keynote address from Gary Samore. Featured remarks from Joe Cirincione. Panelists include Steve Fetter, Gordon Adams, Kennette Benedict and many more. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/V1YNCw

Article - “Dealing with Iran” by Reza Marashi in The Cairo Review of Global Affairs.

--Marashi outlines the recent history and politics of negotiations between the U.S. and Iran, recommending that “America and Iran must talk to each other and trade compromises of equal value in order to break down the hostility and misperceptions that paralyze relations. Only by taking risks for peace will leaders in Washington and Tehran have the necessary deliverables to beat back critics and spoilers.” http://bit.ly/V8to76

Fellowship - The Monterey Institute is looking for a post-doctoral/sabbatical fellow to “Publish a significant work in the field of nuclear, biological, or chemical weapons proliferation/terrorism or related delivery systems and strategies for their control.” Applications due Feb. 13. Details here. http://bit.ly/Slgq35

MOX still lacks customers - The board of the Tennessee Valley Authority has shown no interest in using mixed oxide plutonium fuel (MOX) in its nuclear reactors. Still, construction of the $6 billion MOX plant in South Carolina “continues in spite of the troubling reality that neither TVA nor any other utilities are interested in testing and use of experimental MOX fuel in their reactors.” Tom Clements at the Aiken Leader has the details. http://bit.ly/10HDkox

Global Zero on Today - Queen Noor and Valerie Plame talk about Global Zero and their push to eliminate nuclear weapons with Savannah Guthrie on the “Today Show.” Full interview here. http://on.today.com/TgpDHo