U.S.-Russia Cooperation Vital, Despite Chilled Relations

On the radar: Reducing the nuclear threat; Russia calls for Syria to surrender CW; Iran’s Syria debate; How Syria built its stockpile; Bulava botched; Diplomacy and cash flow in Korea; and The earliest dirty bomb threat.

September 9, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Still the #1 threat - The cooling of U.S.-Russian relations “doesn’t change the fact that there are significant issues that leave the two countries no choice but to work together,” writes Bill Hartung in a letter to The New York Times.

--”No. 1 on that list is nuclear arms control...The spread of nuclear weapons is as much a threat to Russia as it is to the United States, as are remaining stocks of poorly secured nuclear bombs and bomb-making materials. And the ultimate threat — a nuclear conflict by design or, more likely, by accident — remains a possibility as long as both sides keep nuclear weapons on high alert.”

--”At the height of the cold war the United States and the Soviet Union managed to keep open communications and conclude important agreements to control nuclear weapons. Leaders of the United States and Russia should be encouraged to do so now, even as sharp divisions over other issues persist.” Full letter here. http://nyti.ms/13AUwP0

Russian position - “In a surprise move, Russia promised Monday to push its ally Syria to place its chemical weapons under international control and then dismantle them quickly to avert U.S. strikes,” reports AP.

--"If the establishment of international control over chemical weapons in that country would allow avoiding strikes, we will immediately start working with Damascus,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov today. “We are calling on the Syrian leadership to not only agree on placing chemical weapons storage sites under international control, but also on its subsequent destruction and fully joining the treaty on prohibition of chemical weapons.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/16f0GFt

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Debating Syria - One rising argument in the Syria debate is that action against Syria would shore up the credibility of U.S. positions on Iran and its nuclear program. “In recent months, however, the political situation in Iran has become far more complicated, and nuanced, than the current debate in the U.S. has acknowledged, with an emerging domestic debate about how the country should respond to both the U.S. and the use of chemical weapons. Much like Washington, Tehran finds itself debating what to do with Syria,” writes Jay Newton-Small for TIME. http://ti.me/15Qo9Zt

Tweet - @nukes_of_hazard: "Is Iran coming in from the cold? Hints pile up as new president prepares for NYC trip" http://t.co/awjmWjqaxo

Syria and Sarin - According to declassified intelligence reports and leaked American diplomatic cables, Syria has procured “one of the world’s largest stockpiles of chemical weapons” thanks to the Soviet Union and Iran as well as European and U.S. companies.

--”The diplomatic cables and other intelligence documents show that, over time, the two generations of Assads built up a huge stockpile by creating companies with the appearance of legitimacy, importing chemicals that had many legitimate uses and capitalizing on the chaos that followed the collapse of the Soviet Union.” David Sanger, Andrew Lehren and Rick Gladstone of The New York Times have the full story of Syria’s chemical proliferation here. http://ow.ly/oHmeE

Bulava test - A Russian test of its Bulava SLBM experienced failure in the second minute of flight during a sea trial of Russia’s new class of ballistic missile submarines. The test was focused on the submarine command and control system, which appear to have functioned properly. The launched missile, one of the first serially produced Bulavas, now becomes the first failure of the SLBM after a series of seven successful launches. Pavel Podvig has the analysis. http://bit.ly/17kVAXR

IAEA & Iran - At a recent IAEA meeting, general director Yukiya Amano affirmed the agency’s commitment to work with Iran’s new government to “resolve outstanding issues by diplomatic means,” but also also stressed the urgency needed for Iran to “address concerns about suspected atomic bomb research.”

--Amano’s “carefully chosen words underlined international hopes that Rouhani's administration will be less confrontational in its dealings with the outside world than his hardline predecessor, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad,” writes Fredrik Dahl of Reuters. http://ow.ly/oHeCm

Progress on the Peninsula? - Friday’s “restoration of a cross-border military hotline,” between the Koreas is the latest in a string of diplomatic moves that some are calling a “mini breakthrough” in North and South Korean relations. Some experts see Pyongyang’s efforts to play nice as “about the cash flow.”

--Despite warming relations on the Korean Peninsula “discord still churns between Washington and Pyongyang,” over North Korea’s nuclear program. Talks are stalled, and will be difficult to restart given the high bar set by both sides. The U.S. is “demanding Pyongyang first take concrete steps to demonstrate its disarmament commitment.” Pyongyang “insists that it be recognized in any future negotiations as an undisputed nuclear power, something Washington refuses to do.” Full story from AP. http://ow.ly/oHrgi

Speed reads:

--”U.S., Russia clash over Syria reactor at U.N. nuclear meeting” by Fredrik Dahl at Reuters. http://reut.rs/18J7Gcw

--”How China Reads North Korea” by Joel Wuthnow in The National Interest. http://bit.ly/1dVpV4s

--”Dennis Rodman tells of Korea basketball event, may have leaked Kim child's name” from CNN. http://bit.ly/15Jul6k

German dirty bombs - During WWII, under the assumption that Germany had an operating nuclear reactor and was leading the race toward an atomic bomb, the U.S. had a small scale effort to detect and respond to Germany’s usage of “bombs designed to spread radioactive materials in lethal quantities” - or “dirty bombs” as they are called today.

--Germany never got close to the bomb or a dirty bomb, but the discussion of radiological weapons had all the hallmarks of the early atomic era: creative hypotheses on the radiological threat, contemplation of developing the weapons first and absolute secrecy. Alex Wellerstein at Nuclear Secrecy has the history. http://bit.ly/184UJNO

Events:

--”Prospects for a Diplomatic Solution with Iran,” Ray Takeyh, Joel Rubin, and Greg Thielmann. September 10, 12:30-2:00 PM @ The American Security Project. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow7H1

--President Obama gives public address on Syria. September 10, 9:00 PM. Webcast here. http://ow.ly/oHA77

--”U.S.-Iran Reconciliation Under President Rouhani?” Haleh Esfandiari, Robert Einhorn, Kenneth Katzman. Moderated by Barbara Slavin. September 12, 9:30 AM @ the Atlantic Council. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow8uO

--”Trident Alternatives: What Next for British Nuclear Forces?” Danny Alexander, UK. Chief Secretary to the Treasury. September 11, 2:00-3:00 PM. Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium. Details here. http://ow.ly/oHAYu