New Opportunity Requires New Approach Toward Iran

On the radar: Test Rouhani’s opening; Kerry’s comment, Russia’s proposal, Syria’s stockpile and the OPCW; Avoiding incidents at sea; and Krispy Kremes invade Moscow.

September 10, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Testing Rouhani - Iran’s new president Hassan Rouhani seems to be providing a new opportunity for the U.S. to find a diplomatic solution with Iran. “There is every reason to be skeptical of Rouhani given past Iranian deception, the depth of mutual mistrust in U.S.-Iranian relations, and the decades-long investment in anti-American policy of the supreme leader, Ali Khamenei. But Rouhani’s opening should be tested rather than prejudiced through threats,” writes Roger Cohen for The New York Times.

--”This requires a new approach from the Obama administration,” writes Cohen. “As William Luers, Thomas Pickering and Jim Walsh argue persuasively in The New York Review of Books, the United States ‘should take the initiative and communicate directly with the new leadership.’” Full article here. http://nyti.ms/15gN6S5

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Developing events with Syria:

--“He could turn over every single bit of his chemical weapons to the international community in the next week — turn it over, all of it, without delay and allow the full and total accounting,” said Sec. John Kerry yesterday in a rhetorical point about what Assad could to do to avoid strikes. From The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/15OJLvY

--"We are calling on the Syrian leadership to not only agree on placing chemical weapons storage sites under international control, but also on its subsequent destruction and fully joining the treaty on prohibition of chemical weapons,” said Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov yesterday after a meeting with his Syrian counterpart. From The Gaurdian. http://bit.ly/1eA5WHb

--”We, for the sake of protecting our people and children and country and due to our trust in the Russian efforts, will cooperate fully with Russia in this regard so as to take away the excuses of this aggression,” said Syrian Foreign Minister Walid Moallem. From the LA Times. http://lat.ms/15gP4ly

--“It’s possible...if it’s real,” said President Obama yesterday in an interview. From The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/17nAVlO

Parsing the proposal - As support grows for yesterday’s proposal calling on Syria to relinquish its chemical weapons, Daryl Kimball at the Arms Control Association outlines some key considerations tied to the proposition.

--A UN Security Council resolution should “condemn the use of chemical weapons in Syria; forbid further use of chemical weapons under any circumstances; demand that Syria immediately sign the [Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC)], declares its stockpile, and allows the OPCW and/or UN CW inspectors immediate access to all CW storage and production sites; and call upon all other states who have not yet signed or ratified the CWC to do so immediately. Unfortunately the UN Security Council has not even issues a press release condemning the use of chemical weapons in Syria,” writes Kimball at Arms Control Now. http://ow.ly/oJMYY

Tweet - @MicahZenko: BTW, House GOP wants to cut funding to intl inspectors that would verify control of Syria's CW by 27%. http://t.co/aZG1Fjo3Gf

CBM at sea - U.S. and Iranian navies have faced off for three decades - at times violently and risking escalation into open warfare - in the tight waterways of the Strait of Hormuz and the North Arabian Sea. “Over the years there have been tentative efforts to use maritime cooperation to lessen the possibility of misunderstanding between forces on the high seas. Expanding these now to cover U.S. and Iranian naval and Coast Guard forces could be the first of the "confidence building measures" that Rouhani recently called for with the West,” write Adm. Kevin Cosgriff (USN, ret.) and Ellen Laipson for Defense One. http://bit.ly/13GApyI

Speed read:

--“U.S. and South Korea Stand Firm on North Korea Talks” by Choe Sang-hun for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/16hA2vG

Tweet - @insidedefense: MDA Scores Two Intercepts In Complex Missile Defense Flight Test. Story [wedged behind paywall]. http://t.co/9OZuTRbD5g

Events:

--President Obama gives public address on Syria. September 10, 9:00 PM. Webcast here. http://ow.ly/oHA77

--”U.S.-Iran Reconciliation Under President Rouhani?” Haleh Esfandiari, Robert Einhorn, Kenneth Katzman. Moderated by Barbara Slavin. September 12, 9:30 AM @ the Atlantic Council. Details here. http://ow.ly/ow8uO

--”Trident Alternatives: What Next for British Nuclear Forces?” Danny Alexander, UK. Chief Secretary to the Treasury. September 11, 2:00-3:00 PM. Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium. Details here. http://ow.ly/oHAYu

Dessert:

Cold War = won - The first Russian Krispy Kreme doughnut shop is set to open on Thursday, located within walking distance of Red Square in Moscow. Five more shops are planned to open in coming months.

--"My dream has come true. I first saw Krispy Kreme about 10 years ago and I fell in love with it. I used to bring doughnuts home from overseas trips. But then I thought, why can't I give people in Moscow an opportunity to buy Krispy Kreme doughnuts?” said franchise owner Arkady Novikov. Full story from the Moscow Times. http://bit.ly/14C0YrF