Stockpile Sleuthing Reveals Nuclear Reductions

On the radar: Paring the arsenal; Ex-hostages call for re-engagement; P5+1 developments; US’ Iran policy misses the mark; Nuclear site captured by FSA; Time to Confirm Hagel; All politics are local; Smart savings; and Unlikely ambassador.

February 26, 2013 | Edited by Alyssa Demus

Stockpile reductions - The U.S. “has quietly [and unilaterally] reduced its nuclear weapons stockpile by nearly 500 warheads since 2009,” according to analysis by Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists.

--The current stockpile of roughly 4,688 warheads is down approximately 85% from the peak of 31,255 warheads in 1967. Calculations based on a newly released figure from NNSA.

--“Declassification of the back-end (dismantlement numbers) of the nuclear posture goes hand in hand with declassification of the front-end (stockpile size) because dismantlement numbers prove that the United States is actually getting rid of the weapons and not just putting them in storage. That is the key message that unnecessary secrecy prevents U.S. officials from being able to convey to the international nonproliferation community,” Kristensen concludes. http://owl.li/i46PI

Renewed rapprochement - “Only sustained, robust, and comprehensive diplomacy based on the premise of mutual compromise can break this cycle, which threatens to enflame the region," said Ambassador Bruce Laingen, a hostage during the Iran Crisis.

--Amb. Laingen and fellow hostage Amb. John Limbert called for renewed diplomatic engagement with Iran at an event hosted by the Center for Arms Control and Non-Proliferation, the Council for a Livable World, the Friends Committee on National Legislation, and the National Iranian American Council. Josh Rogin at The Cable has the story. http://owl.li/i3Dld

Iran talks update - As the first of two days of nuclear talks in Kazakhstan begins, Iran is expected to offer a counterproposal to the P5+1 offer that included limited sanctions relief. http://reut.rs/WfqBdI

--Outcomes are still unclear, with neither side expecting a comprehensive deal. An Iranian diplomat tells Al-Monitor that technical talks may be the next step. http://bit.ly/YUUJr2

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Success of Sanctions - In Iran, sanctions have inflicted pain, however, the “pain does not translate into the desired policy outcomes,” a new report from the International Crisis Group finds. Sanctions may also create “perverse incentives” and “not only miss their targets but play into the hands they intend to weaken.”

--Recommendations: continuous technical-level negotiations towards a step-by-step agreement; bilateral negotiations (U.S.- Iran); seek agreement on a package in which Iran suspends some enrichment activities in exchange for Western suspension of some sanctions. Full report here. http://owl.li/i3vDp

Missed opportunities - Resolution of the nuclear crisis with Iran is possible, but only if the West alters its “unrealistic” expectations, misperceptions, and current approach towards Tehran’s nuclear program says Kaveh Afrasiabi in the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists.

--Once decoupled from the unrealistic option of no Iranian enrichment, and acknowledging Iran's ability for industrial-scale enrichment, US policy could then begin to make inroads. “This US policy shift does not require a "grand bargain" with Iran, but rather a drastic policy adjustment, ” writes Afrasiabi. Full article here. http://owl.li/i3FqQ

Containment, not conflict - As part of its policy towards Iran, the West maintains that “all options remain on the table.” This position “is a hindrance to negotiations, rather than a help,” says Jack Straw in The Telegraph. “Resolving the current impasse will require statesmanship of a high order from both sides. From the West, there has to be a better understanding of the Iranian psyche [...] Iranians are yearning to be treated with respect, after decades in which they feel (with justification) that they have been systematically humiliated,” says Straw. Full story here. http://owl.li/i3AlI

Tweet - @EconSciTech: New video: we discuss Barack Obama's latest attempt to reduce his country's vast quantity of nuclear warheads http://owl.li/i3XC2

Capturing Al Kibar - Media sources reported the capture of a suspected former nuclear reactor by Syrian rebels yesterday. Using videos of the site, Jeffrey Lewis of Arms Control Wonk examines the validity of these reports. Full story here. http://owl.li/i3Qjn

Obama’s team, one player short - “Each day that we do not have a secretary of defense is one day less that the president has to [prevent] an Iranian nuclear bomb,” writes Joel Rubin in The Huffington Post. “It’s time to end this uncertainty [...] and to get our country’s national security team — especially his choice for secretary of defense — in place.” http://owl.li/i3FQC

Power play - Ayatollah Ali Khamenei’s fiery rhetoric is neither a negotiating tactic nor “a signal to the [US] to present a more concrete and authentic set of inducements” at nuclear talks. Rather, a lasting deal with Iran is not in Khamenei and the ruling elite’s best political interest as “normalization of relations between Iran and the United States would deprive [the leadership] of a powerful justification for their arbitrary rule,” writes Hussein Banai in the Los Angeles Times. http://owl.li/i3OUI

Long read - “Making Defense Affordable” by Cindy Williams and The Hamilton Project. Option 1 downsizes the nuclear submarine fleet. Option 2 eliminates ICBMs. http://bit.ly/15f3IYh

Events:

--”The ROK-U.S. Alliance in the Pacific Era In Light of North Korea’s Recent Nuclear Test.” Choi Young-jin, South Korean Ambassador. February 27 6:00-8:00 p.m. @ George Washington University, Jack Morton Auditorium. RSVP here. http://owl.li/hVcph

--”PONI Live Debate: Unilateral Nuclear Arms Reductions.” Hans Kristensen and Stephen Rademaker. February 27 6:00-8:00 p.m. @ CSIS, 1800 K Street N.W., B1 Conference Room. More info here. http://owl.li/i3sbp

--Automatic budget cuts (sequester) go into effect March 1.

--”Understanding the Behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Mohsen Milani, Univ. of Southern Florida; Bijan Khajehpour, Atieh International. March 4 9:00-11:00 a.m. @ Carnegie Endowment. RSVP here. http://owl.li/i1F0C

--”Confronting the Bomb: Pakistani and Indian Scientists Speak Out.” Pervez Hoodbhoy, Zia Mian, George Perkovich. March 5 9:00-10:30 a.m. @ Carnegie Endowment WDC. Register here. http://owl.li/hY13n

Dessert:

Basketball diplomacy - NBA star and author of Bad as I Wanna Be Dennis Rodman is traveling to North Korea to shoot footage for a TV show intended to foster cultural engagement between the U.S. and DPRK. The Guardian on the unlikely diplomat. http://owl.li/i3Vip

Capturing nuclear explosions - Curious to know what the first milliseconds of a nuclear explosion look like and how they were captured? Esther Inglis-Arkell of io9 has the scoop. http://owl.li/i3VVo