Iran Nuclear Talks: Next Stop, Istanbul

On the radar: Dates set for new talks; Priorities for SecDef Hagel; CTBTO hard at work; Transparent nuclear policy; New venue for arms control; and the Worm in the Hermit Kingdom.

February 27, 2013 | Edited by Alyssa Demus

Next steps - After two days of talks, Iran and six world powers have agreed to hold additional meetings between technical experts in Istanbul on March 18, followed by political level talks again in Kazakhstan on April 5 and 6.

--The meeting in Istanbul will be used to explain the details of the world powers’ proposals, which reportedly include sanctions relief and “permission to resume [Iran’s] gold and precious metal trade, international banking activity, and petroleum trade.” Iran will respond to the proposal when the countries convene in Kazakhstan again in April.

--As for the success of the talks, Iran’s chief negotiator, Saeed Jalili said the “proposals seem more realistic and positive,” while a senior U.S. official called the negotiations “useful” and added “what matters are concrete results on [...] 20 percent enrichment and on Fordo.” Steven Erlanger of The New York Times has the story. http://owl.li/i5LvZ

Cold War relics - A top priority for Secretary of Defense Chuck Hagel includes ensuring that the Department of Defense “adapts to 21st century threats. The current DoD budget is loaded with spending on items that have more to do with the Cold War than modern security challenges like cyber war or terrorism. Spending hundreds of billions on an overly large and totally redundant nuclear force adds nothing to our bottom line security,” says Lt. Col. Tony Shaffer at FoxNews.com. Full story here. http://owl.li/i5XDO

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Test ban benefits - The Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty Organization’s International Monitoring System (IMS) has been “hard at work”. Earlier this month, “25 CTBT seismic monitoring sites identified ‘a seismic event with explosion-like characteristics” after North Korea’s test, and the meteorite explosion in Russia was “picked up by a facility in Antarctica, more than 9,000 miles away.” These “results show...that the system works,” Daryl Kimball of the Arms Control Association told Global Security Newswire. http://owl.li/i64KL

Video - Amb. Thomas Pickering, Amb. Hossein Mousavian, and Alireza Nader discuss “Toward a Diplomatic Solution of the Iranian Nuclear Crisis: What Can Be Achieved in 2013?” at the Carnegie Endowment. View the talk here. http://owl.li/i5QYU

Transparency - “When the president renews his nuclear agenda in the coming weeks, he should clarify that the only legitimate circumstance for using nuclear weapons would be as a last resort in response to threats to the survival of the United States or if its allies are threatened,” writes George Perkovich in Politico. “As long as nuclear weapons remain, they can be used. And as long as this is the case, ‘We cannot expect of others what we will not do ourselves.” http://owl.li/i62ML

Tweet - @TheAtlantic: A network of nuclear-detection sites around the world recorded the sound of the Russian meteor http://theatln.tc/YEmxCb

Reasons to ratify - “As a technical matter, we are ready to implement the Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) immediately, at a time when world politics includes only one nation still claiming to develop new nuclear weapons. We should seize this chance now,” says Jeffrey Park in the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

--Ratification of the CTBT failed fourteen years ago, “partly because Republican senators argued that seismic and other technical means for monitoring treaty compliance were inadequate.” The recent North Korean test demonstrated technological advances in today’s monitoring system and its effectiveness in detecting a nuclear explosion says Park. Full article here. http://owl.li/i5UtW

Stuxnet update - A new study of the Stuxnet computer virus, used to damage centrifuges at Iran’s Natanz facility, found evidence that the cyber weapon was being developed as early as 2005, two years earlier than previously suspected. Jim Finkle at Reuters has the story. http://owl.li/i6dGx

NATO and nukes - Earlier this month, NATO’s North Atlantic Council agreed on a mandate for its new arms control body - the “Special Advisory and Consultative Arms Control and Disarmament and Non-Proliferation Committee.”

--The body will: serve as a “venue for consultations on the U.S.-Russian dialogue on strategic stability” and future nuclear reductions; play an “advisory role” on tactical nuclear weapons; and “facilitate discussions on other arms control-related issues,” reports Oliver Meier at Arms Control Now. http://owl.li/i5Rna

Events:

--”The ROK-U.S. Alliance in the Pacific Era In Light of North Korea’s Recent Nuclear Test.” Choi Young-jin, South Korean Ambassador. February 27 6:00-8:00 p.m. @ George Washington University, Jack Morton Auditorium. RSVP here. http://owl.li/hVcph

--”PONI Live Debate: Unilateral Nuclear Arms Reductions.” Hans Kristensen and Stephen Rademaker. February 27 6:00-8:00 p.m. @ CSIS, 1800 K Street N.W., B1 Conference Room. More info here. http://owl.li/i3sbp

--”The Future of Armageddon: US Nuclear Policy in the 21st Century.” Christopher Preble, Baker Spring, Amb. Richard Burt, and Keir Lieber. February 27 7:00-8:00 p.m. @ Georgetown University, ICC Auditorium. http://owl.li/i5Gbj

--”Briefing: What Comes Next for U.S.-Iran Diplomacy?” Steve Miller and Paolo Cotta Ramusino. February 28 10:00-11:00 a.m. Rayburn House Office Building, B-308. RSVP here. http://owl.li/i5Vgb

--Automatic budget cuts (sequester) go into effect March 1.

--”Understanding the Behavior of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” Mohsen Milani, Univ. of Southern Florida; Bijan Khajehpour, Atieh International. March 4 9:00-11:00 a.m. @ Carnegie Endowment. RSVP here. http://owl.li/i1F0C

--”Confronting the Bomb: Pakistani and Indian Scientists Speak Out.” Pervez Hoodbhoy, Zia Mian, and George Perkovich. March 5 9:00-10:30 a.m. @ Carnegie Endowment WDC. Register here. http://owl.li/hY13n

Dessert:

Tweet - @dennisrodman: It's true, I'm in North Korea. Looking forward to sitting down with Kim Jung Un. I love the people of North Korea. #WORMinNorthKorea.

Word on the street - What do Americans think of U.S. participation in the recent P5+1 talks with Iran? “Looks like someone just wants a free trip to Almaty,” one respondent tells The Onion. http://owl.li/i6kpb