One Year Later, the Iran Accord is Working

Kerry’s Remarks - “One year ago today, China, Russia, Germany, France, Great Britain, the United States, known as the P5+1, succeeded after several years of intensive negotiations in securing an agreement with Iran in order to restrain Iran’s nuclear program in a way that guaranteed to the world that Iran would not be pursuing a nuclear weapon.”

--“From that moment, 19,000 centrifuges have been put under IAEA scrutiny and storage. The Arak plutonium reactor, plutonium – the core of that reactor has been completely dismantled and destroyed. The 98 percent of the stockpile that Iran had of enriched uranium has been moved out of the country, and there is a day-to-day monitoring of the remaining limit to 300 kilograms. The limitation exists today on enrichment at 3.67 percent, and we have an ongoing process of exchange of information and dialogue which is producing a significant ability to be able to monitor effectively, and, if and when there is a question, to be able to deal with those questions.

--“So as of today, one year later, a program that so many people said will not work, a program that people said is absolutely doomed to see cheating and be broken and will make the more dangerous, has, in fact, made the world safer, lived up to its expectations, and thus far produced an ability to be able to create a peaceful nuclear program with Iran living up to its part of this bargain and obligation.” Read Secretary Kerry’s full remarks from Paris here. http://bit.ly/29S9I3j

Tweet - @TheIranDeal: "All of Iran’s pathways to a nuclear weapon remain closed" —@POTUS. http://bit.ly/29FQn8O

Iran deal a success, but still under threat - “A year after President Obama’s nuclear deal with Iran, the worst predictions of what would happen next have not come to pass,” writes David Sanger for The New York Times. “The Iranians, defying the expectations of the deal’s most vociferous critics, gave up 98 percent of their nuclear material. They dismantled thousands of centrifuges and filled the core of a major plutonium reactor with cement. Inspectors roam their facilities.”

--“Few national security issues divided Washington like the nuclear deal, reached a year ago Thursday in Vienna. Every Republican in Congress who voted on the agreement opposed it. A year later, the battle continues… Congress has also threatened to block Iran’s access to the American financial system, a way of neutralizing the sanctions relief. (The White House has threatened to veto both measures.) And opponents have objected to the Energy Department’s quiet decision to purchase heavy water — used in plutonium production — from Iran to get it out of the country.

--“So today, there is still risk that the deal could be upended — either by Republicans if Donald J. Trump is elected, or by Iranians who claim the United States is backing away from commitments and use that to undercut Mr. Zarif and Mr. Rouhani… For Mr. Obama, perhaps the most immediate benefit of the deal is what is not happening in the Middle East — a race for nuclear weapons.” Read the full piece here. http://nyti.ms/29GkGXB

Tweet - @ErnestMoniz: Today is the 1-year anniversary of the #IranDeal, a major milestone for global security. http://bit.ly/29B1Ss8

The world is safer - “This week, we celebrate a quiet anniversary – one that’s probably far from most people’s minds,” write Congressman Keith Ellison and Kate Gould for The Hill. “It’s the anniversary of an agreement that’s been a quiet success. A deal that keeps a nuclear weapon out of Iran’s hands, and makes the world a safer place. Today marks the one-year anniversary of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) – the Iran nuclear agreement.”

--“We should all celebrate how diplomacy, not military might, won the day. One year later, we no longer fear the specter of Iran as another nuclear power. Our allies no longer wrestle with the possibility of another destabilizing force in an already unstable region. Without a single shot fired, the power of diplomacy has prevented a nuclear-armed Iran.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/29KmsL5

Tweet - @SecDef19: On the one year anniversary of the #IranDeal, congratulations and hopes for continued diplomacy: http://bit.ly/29SIdcM

Continued efforts to kill the deal - “The Republican-led House has approved a bill that would undercut the milestone nuclear deal with Iran, a largely symbolic move that highlights strident GOP opposition to the international accord,” writes Richard Lardner for the AP. “On a largely party-line vote, the House backed the measure Wednesday 249-176. It calls for prohibiting the Obama administration from buying more of Iran’s heavy water, a key component in certain nuclear reactors. The White House has said removing the country’s surplus heavy water denies Tehran access to a material that may be stored for potential nuclear weapons production.”

--“Heavy water, formed with a hydrogen isotope, is not radioactive but has research and medical applications and can also be used to produce weapons-grade plutonium. Under the nuclear deal, Iran is allowed to use heavy water in its modified Arak nuclear reactor, but must sell any excess supply of both heavy water and enriched uranium on the international market… The heavy water is expected to arrive in the U.S. in the coming weeks and will be stored at the Oak Ridge National Laboratory in Tennessee and then resold on the commercial market for research purposes.” Full story here. http://wapo.st/29KpgI0

See Also - “The Arguments Change, but the Effort to Kill the Iran Nuclear Agreement Continues,” By Paul Pillar for The National Interest. http://bit.ly/29E791F

No-First-Use - “The United States first used nuclear weapons more than 70 years ago on Hiroshima and Nagasaki. Fearing the threat from massive Soviet conventional forces and possible large-scale use of chemical and biological weapons, U.S. military and political leaders decided to keep the option to use nuclear weapons first in a conflict. Today, the United States in the world’s dominant global military power and the Soviet Union is long gone. The Cold War-era policy of not ruling out nuclear first-use poses a grave risk to the security of the United States and is not suitable for today’s global security and political environment.”

--“The greatest threat to the United States and to any nation is from the enormous and indiscriminate destructive effects of nuclear weapons. It is in the interest of the United States that, as long as these weapons exist, all nuclear-armed states agree that the sole purpose of nuclear weapons is to respond to a nuclear attack by other nuclear-armed states… By declaring that the United States will not be the first to use nuclear weapons, Obama could unwind dangerous Cold War-era thinking, reduce the risk that a conventional military conflict turns into a nuclear catastrophe, and enhance U.S. and global security for decades to come.” Read the full piece from Daryl Kimball in War on the Rocks here. http://bit.ly/29FOf0A

See Also - “Nuclear No-First-Use (NFU) is Right for America,” by James E. Doyle for Real Clear Defense. http://bit.ly/29y2kvC

Letter of last resort - “After a tumultuous few weeks in British politics, Theresa May officially became Britain's prime minister on Wednesday… But aside from all the pageantry, there's some serious weight to the day. Not only will May have to form a functioning government and deal with Britain's eventual exit from the European Union — she will also soon have to write a "letter of last resort" for use in the event of a devastating nuclear attack on Britain.”

--“This letter is a handwritten note to the commanders of Trident missile submarines on patrol. These four submarines carry nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles that could cause a devastating atomic explosion halfway across the world… In theory, only Britain's prime minister or a second designated person (chosen by the prime minister but not publicly identified) can give the launch order. The letter of last resort is designed to give instructions if both are no longer alive or are completely out of contact. It is placed in a safe in each submarine, only to be opened if Britain's government is wiped out.”

--“It's obviously a tough moment for the new prime minister. May has to write an unusually intimate handwritten letter that assumes not only that she and many other Britons have already been killed but that also could condemn millions of other people to their own deaths.” Read the full piece from Adam Taylor in The Washington Post here. http://wapo.st/29yl89I

See Also - “The Grim Task Awaiting Theresa May: Preparing for Nuclear Armageddon,” by Garrett M. Graff for Politico. http://politi.co/29V7Eap

North Korea seems more sinister - “Under traditional understandings of North Korea, the country’s test launch of two medium-range ballistic missiles in late June should not have happened. Neither should its failed launch, on Saturday, of a submarine-based missile. But they did. And that has brought new urgency to a growing conversation among many North Korea watchers: Is our understanding of this country fundamentally wrong?”

--“The country’s weapons programs have long been understood as meant not for immediate military purposes, but to rally North Koreans behind the leadership and extract concessions from foreign governments. North Korea’s bluster, in this view, is not sincere, but just another set piece in an elaborate, never-ending show. This does not, however, adequately explain North Korea’s recent flurry of weapons tests, often using unproven technology that tends to fail many times, bringing embarrassment to a government that prefers to project confidence, and that incurs heavy diplomatic and financial tolls the country cannot afford.”

--“Such tests, according to a growing chorus of experts, suggest that North Korea is now seeking, in a more focused and determined way, a real, functioning nuclear weapons program — and could be on the way to getting it.” Read the full piece from Max Fischer for The New York Times here. http://nyti.ms/29FSN7a

Quick Hits:

--“One year later, Iran obeying nuclear deal, despite early doubts,” by Teresa Welsh in McClatchy. http://bit.ly/29SNK2V

--“Assessing the Iran nuclear deal one year after it was reached,” by Carol Morello for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/29YynWt

--“The Madness of Humanity: Nuclear Weapons and M.A.D.,” by Marcelo Gleiser for NPR. http://n.pr/29Hfxkr

--“Cramped and heavily armed — see what life is like aboard a nuclear submarine with these photos,” by David Choi for Business Insider. http://read.bi/29B6yyt

Events:

--“The Iran Nuclear Deal One Year Later: Maximizing or Minimizing the Opening?” with six speakers. July 14 from 12:00 to 1:30 p.m. at 340 Cannon House Office Building, Washington. Sponsored by the National Iranian American Council. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/29TFMGt

--The James Timbie Forum for Arms Control and Nonproliferation. At the State Department (July 14) and George Washington University (July 15). Register here. http://bit.ly/28Mit1u