Following Coup in Turkey, Should We Keep Nukes Abroad?

Power cut to nuclear weapons base - “The attempted coup in Turkey on Friday and the subsequent closure of the Incirlik airbase in the south of the country have raised fresh questions about the wisdom of the US stationing the biggest stockpile of nuclear weapons in Europe at such a vulnerable site… The Turkish government claimed that some of the coup plotters were based at Incirlik and flew aircraft out of the shared base. It consequently closed air traffic out of the base and cut off its power supply, temporarily stopping US air operations against Islamic State extremists in Syria,” writes Julian Borger for The Guardian.

--“‘I think the key lesson is that the benefits of storing nuclear weapons in Turkey are minimal but the risks have increased significantly over the past five years,’ said Hans Kristensen, a nuclear weapons expert at the Federation of American Scientists. ‘I would say that the security situation in Turkey and in the base area no longer meet the safety requirements that the United States should have for storage of nuclear weapons. You only get so many warnings before something goes terribly wrong. It’s time to withdraw the weapons.’” Full article here. http://bit.ly/29HCalW

Incirlik nukes are vulnerable “Among the many questions still unanswered following Friday’s coup attempt in Turkey is one that has national-security implications for the United States and for the rest of the world: How secure are the American hydrogen bombs stored at a Turkish airbase? The Incirlik Airbase, in southeast Turkey, houses nato’s largest nuclear-weapons storage facility… Incirlik was forced to rely on backup generators; U.S. Air Force planes stationed there were prohibited from taking off or landing; and the security-threat level was raised to fpcon Delta, the highest state of alert, declared when a terrorist attack has occurred or may be imminent.” writes Eric Schlosser for The New Yorker. Full piece here. http://bit.ly/29ThAm7

U.S. should remove nukes abroad - “In retrospect, it is understandable why the Turkish government closed the airspace over Incirlik, even if it did temporarily disrupt air operations against the Islamic State in Syria. But that is in retrospect. In the moment, it raised a disquieting thought. There are a few dozen U.S. B61 nuclear gravity bombs stored at Incirlik. Does it seem like a good idea to station American nuclear weapons at an air base commanded by someone who may have just helped bomb his own country’s parliament?” writes Jeffrey Lewis for Foreign Policy. Full article here. http://atfp.co/2a616Gk

In Iran, Diplomacy instead of War - “One year ago, opponents of the Iran nuclear agreement blasted the landmark accord as ushering in the Apocalypse. They are still at it… Why? What is behind these efforts? Partially it is pure politics, a continuation of efforts to block any advance by a Democratic president. But there are deep ideological forces at work here; a fundamental divide over whether U.S. national security interests are better addressed through diplomacy or war,” write Joe Cirincione and Geoff Wilson for War is Boring.

--“Members of Congress are egged on by fiercely ideological staff and a well-funded network of neoconservative organizations with a long list of grievances against Iran. To be sure, the United States and our allies will continue to have major issues with Iran. But whatever Iran’s role is in fomenting regional turmoil, one thing is certain: Iran will not have a nuclear bomb to back up its actions. That threat has been removed for at least the next 15 years and, with hard work, forever.” Read the full piece here. http://bit.ly/29XFf4v

The Iran deal is here to stay - “Donald Trump has called the nuclear agreement with Iran ‘disastrous’ and suggested he would ‘renegotiate’ the deal if he wins the White House. On substance, this position makes no sense. On its first anniversary, we can safely say that the Iran deal is working and that life without it would be much worse… If the next president were to rip up the deal, there would be nothing to replace it. The deal is the deal,” writes Ploughshares Fund Director of Policy Tom Collina for The Hill.

--“Simply put, the deal prevents an Iranian nuclear bomb without endangering U.S. troops or inflaming wider regional conflict. But without this deal,Iran could resume and accelerate its nuclear program, increasing the chances of an Iranian nuclear bomb and U.S. military action.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/2adsZPt

See also - “It's been a year since the Iran deal was signed. So far, it’s worked,” an interview with Jeffrey Lewis by Zack Beauchamp for Vox. http://bit.ly/29HF2BX

Statements on the Anniversary of the Iran Deal:

--“Statement by the President on the One Year Anniversary of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action.” http://bit.ly/29FQn8O

--“NIAC Statement on First Anniversary of the Finalization of the Iran Nuclear Accord.” http://bit.ly/29G24a8

--“Word on the Street: One Year Later,” by Jessica Rosenblum for J Street Blog. http://bit.ly/29Rj8iX

--“Let’s Celebrate The One-Year Anniversary Of The Iran Deal Instead Of Undermining Its Progress,” by Representative Jan Schakowsky for The Huffington Post. http://huff.to/29Rwj1g

--“Congresswoman Lee Celebrates a Safer World Thanks to the Iran Deal.” http://bit.ly/29JsqMo

--“Pelosi Statement on Iran Nuclear Agreement Anniversary.” http://bit.ly/2a814k3

--“Special Statement: On One-Year Anniversary, Nuclear Agreement is Working,” from WAND. http://bit.ly/29RVEDY

Video - “Choosing Diplomacy Over War: The Iran Nuclear Agreement,” Representative Lloyd Doggett (D-TX) speaks on the House floor in support of the Iran Deal. http://bit.ly/2a93wDI

No first use: good for U.S. allies - “President Barack Obama is seriously considering ruling out the first use of U.S. nuclear weapons in times of crisis or conflict in Asia, Europe, the Middle East, or any other hot spot in the world. He reasons, correctly in my opinion, that U.S. military, economic, and diplomatic power combined with allied strength are overwhelmingly superior to the power of any potential adversary, and that we would not need to initiate the use of nuclear weapons to successfully defend the sovereignty and vital national security interests of the 30 nations, including Japan, that depend upon U.S. protection,” writes Bruce Blair for Kyodo News.

--“The rationale for no-first-use runs deeper. In the case of North Korea, such use would not only be gratuitous (because they are not needed to defeat the North), but also would risk blanketing Japan (and possibly South Korea) with deadly radioactive fall-out due to prevailing westerly winds. This is just one example of how the indiscriminate nature of nuclear weapons makes their use anathema.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/2a64xwK

Tweet - @SecDef19: We can reject a modernization program that would increase the risk of a #nuclear war by accident or miscalculation https://t.co/K0I7OtamlI

Military begins new ICBM program - “The nation’s top three military contractors will compete for a multi-billion dollar, decades-long program to replace the Air Force’s fleet of Minuteman III nuclear missiles and to modernize its command-and-control systems… The program is expected to cost $62 billion from 2015 through fiscal year 2044, the Congressional Research Service reported,” writes Stew Magnuson for National Defense.

--“Kingston Reif, director for disarmament and threat reduction policy at the Arms Control Association in Washington, D.C., said the decision to build a new ground based strategic deterrent missile could be postponed for up to a decade. There have been — and will be — so many upgrades to the Minuteman III that it is basically a new missile.” Full article here. http://bit.ly/29SFDyt

Overhaul needed in missile defense - “The pursuit of a strategic missile defense system can make the United States less safe by encouraging a riskier foreign policy, by encouraging potential adversaries to modernize and increase their arsenals, by short-circuiting creative thinking about solving strategic problems diplomatically, and by interfering in US efforts to cooperate with other nuclear powers on nuclear threat reduction,” write Laura Grego, George N. Lewis and David Wright in a new report for the Union of Concerned Scientists.

--“The United States must fundamentally change its approach to strategic missile defense. If the GMD [Ground-Based Midcourse Defense] system is to be part of addressing the ballistic missile threat, the United States must make its development and deployment a process with clear goals, rigorous testing, and effective oversight and accountability.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/2a5hAja

Tweet - @DarylGKimball: "SNP push again for Scottish independence vote after Trident result" http://bit.ly/29SEYjd

Opportunity in North Korea - “There was a train wreck last week, but not a lot of people noticed, swooning as they were over the July 6 announcement that the US Department of Treasury had designated Kim Jong Un by name on a new list of individuals sanctioned for human rights violations. In the dance of jubilation, few had the time or inclination… to pay attention to a DPRK government spokesman’s statement released earlier the same day. That statement made clear what the North Koreans have been hinting at for some time—yes, they were willing to talk about denuclearization,” writes Robert Carlin for 38 North. Full piece here. http://bit.ly/29SA03n

Quick Hits:

--“The Iran Deal is Good Policy and Good Politics,” by Ben Shnider for Forward. http://bit.ly/29FGOqe

--“Pentagon: Still no commercial power at Turkish air base,” by Kristina Wong for The Hill. http://bit.ly/29RrctB

--“A year later, Iran deal lies are still being recycled,” by Ali Gharib for +972 Magazine. http://bit.ly/2a80L90

--“Let Boeing sell jets to Iran Air,” by the editorial board of The Boston Globe. http://bit.ly/2adACW3

--“North Korea fires three ballistic missiles in new show of force,” by Jack Kim and James Pearson for Reuters. http://reut.rs/29QsmFT

--“Nuclear Weapons Are The Most Consequential Threat America Faces,” by Lee Hamilton for The Worldpost. http://huff.to/2a3a4p2

--“The lesson of the Iran deal: Diplomacy is hard and unicorns don't exist,” by Indira Lakshmanan for The Boston Globe. http://bit.ly/2afpJiO

Events:

--“Nuclear Developments in North Korea,” with Seok-soo Lee, Korea National Defense University; and Kongdan Oh, International Institute for Strategic Studies. July 20 from 10:00 to 11:00 a.m. at the International Institute for Strategic Studies, 2121 K St. NW, Washington. Register here. http://bit.ly/29SCVsI

"Bike Around the Bomb," by Global Zero. August 6 at 10:00 a.m. at Lafayette Square, Washington. http://bit.ly/29nDRaF

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