NPT Review: Challenges, Successes and Commitments

Kerry - “Can we really create a future in which nuclear weapons exist only within the pages of history books?... Yes, but the journey will be a long one. And it will take patience, cooperation, and persistence to complete,” said Secretary of State John Kerry at the NPT Review Conference yesterday.

--“[Beyond mutual reductions with Russia] there are further steps that we can take. It begins with agreement now to start to negotiate a Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty… initiatives to prepare for future arms control agreements, as we have started to do with a new International Partnership on Nuclear Disarmament Verification… And I am pleased to tell you today that the United States submitted the Protocol to the Central Asia Nuclear-Weapon-Free Zone Treaty to the U.S. Senate for its advice and consent to ratification."

--On Iran, ”the hard work is far from over and some key issues remain unresolved. But we are, in fact, closer than ever to the good comprehensive deal that we have been seeking... And if ultimately the talks are successful, it will once again prove the power of diplomacy over conflict and reinforce the rule of law." Full remarks: http://1.usa.gov/1J6nRD0

New warhead numbers - As of September 2014, the U.S. possess 4,717 warheads, representing a reduction of 87 warheads since last year and nearly 500 since President Obama took office in 2009. Hans Kristensen of the Federation of American Scientists analyses the numbers. http://bit.ly/1Ezs8z3

Bomber budget - “How exactly does the military plan to avoid the fiasco that was the previous long-range bomber project, which resulted in a cut from a planned fleet of 132 to just 20?” writes the Bloomberg editorial board. “What are the greatest threats the U.S. is likely to face during the bomber's lifespan? What place will it have in our nuclear-deterrence triad?”

--“U.S. taxpayers will end up paying for these new bombers. And while the Pentagon may be justified in keeping many details of this contract classified, it needs to provide some answers to Congress and taxpayers.” http://bv.ms/1DTaiCu

--See also: “House Cuts $460M from Air Force’s Next Generation Stealth Bomber,” by Kris Osborn for DOD Buzz. http://bit.ly/1Kq2e1J

Tweet - @OswaldRachel: Obama sends Central Asia nuke free zone pact 2 Senate 4 ratification but Foreign Relations already has v. full plate http://t.co/RHFiFLxIj7

Corker - Democratic supporters of the Corker-Cardin Iran review bill want Republican support to prevent amendments that could kill the bill. But the GOP leadership isn’t playing ball, sources tell POLITICO.

--Democrats likely have enough votes to block “poison pills,” but, with amendments like requiring that Iran recognize the state of Israel and tying the nuclear deal to the release of American prisoners in Iran, the debate could get contentious. http://politi.co/1AaOnWS

--Watch the floor action today on CSPAN2. http://cs.pn/1OYfmeV

--See also: “Does Marco Rubio have the chutzpah to roll the dice on Iran?,” by Jonathan Allen for Vox. http://bit.ly/1HTvvDz

--How opponents of the deal view it: “Kill Corker’s Disastrous Iran Bill,” by Marc A. Thiessen in The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1EiTJmN

Zarif - “The continued existence of nuclear weapons poses the greatest threat to humanity. We remain extremely concerned at their possible use or threat of use and are convinced that their total elimination is the only absolute guarantee against such use or threat of use,” Iranian Foreign Minister Javid Zarif said on behalf of the Non-Aligned Movement at the NPT Review Conference.

--“We express deep concern at the continued lack of progress in the implementation of nuclear disarmament obligations and commitments by the nuclear-weapon-States, which could undermine the object and purpose of the Treaty and the credibility of the non-proliferation regime.” Full transcript: http://bit.ly/1AaTxlR

Sherman - Failing to reach a final agreement with Iran would endanger U.S. national security, Undersecretary of State Wendy Sherman said at an event yesterday. International sanctions would be difficult to restore if the U.S. backed out of a deal, she noted.

--“So when you look at the comparison to the agreement we are negotiating and the chance that we wouldn’t succeed — the better course of action is abundantly clear.” Full story in Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/1JOgkJe

Tweet - @Cirincione: Fmr. Commander of U.S. nuclear forces, Gen. James Cartwright (USMC ret.) to call for end to hair trigger alert at UN. http://t.co/VGRLCYqtUT

Iran is not North Korea - Observers often try to compare the current negotiations with Iran to the 1994 Agreed Framework with North Korea. George Perkovich looks at the similarities and differences of the two cases in a longform analysis for the Carnegie Endowment.

--Perkovich’s possible conclusions: “First, the nature and circumstances of the proposed arrangement with Iran may increase the probability that Iran, unlike the DPRK, will be motivated to live up to the terms of its deal. Second, the United States may find it even more difficult to deliver on its side of the bargain than it did in the early years of the Agreed Framework. http://ceip.org/1DHupo4

Force fed BMD - “The Pentagon has repeatedly said it doesn’t need — nor can it afford — a third anti-missile battery on American territory to defend against a possible attack from North Korea or Iran. But that hasn’t stopped congressional Republicans, ideologically predisposed to a more comprehensive missile shield than Democrats, from pushing for one on the East Coast,” write Jen Judson and Jeremy Herb in POLITICO. http://politi.co/1GEcEMF

Alternatives - “What is the end game for these critics for their proposed approach? The framework agreement could actually lead to a peaceful solution; however, more indefinite sanctions could escalate tensions, fracture alliances, lead to a nuclear arms race with Saudi Arabia and other regional nations, and ultimately, a war for us to stop Iran,” writes Joe Sestak in the Pennsylvania Times Leader. http://bit.ly/1J6pRew

Pro-war crowd - Given the choice between a negotiated settlement with Iran on its nuclear program and military intervention, one in five Republicans chose attacking Iran. This according to a recent Quinnipiac poll. Aaron Blake at The Washington Post takes a look at the numbers. http://wapo.st/1GEdlFz

Quick Hits:

-- “Energy Secretary Moniz emerges as Obama’s secret weapon in Iran talks,” by Steven Mufson for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/1HPPNOk

--“Accountability Nowhere to be Found on Missile Defense,” by Jacob Marx for POGO. http://bit.ly/1dozsUf

--“Iran nuke deal: Good for Israel,” by Paul Kawika Martin in The Jerusalem Post. http://bit.ly/1JOpK7z

--“Poll shows Americans back Obama's Iran nuclear deal,” from AFP. http://yhoo.it/1bzTCJK

--“Kerry Visits a Piece of Iran on Manhattan’s Upper East Side,” by Kambiz Foroohar for Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/1HNRPwO

--“After Iran deal, world looks to jump-start nuclear disarmament,” by Carole Landry for AFP. http://yhoo.it/1HNVNps

Events:

--Senate begins floor votes on the Iran Nuclear Amendment Review Act of 2015, S. 615 (now included in H.R. 1191), April 28. Live webcast here: http://cs.pn/1OYfmeV

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00am. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/

--“A Conversation With H.E. Dr. Mohammad Javad Zarif, Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” New America In partnership with the NYU Center on International Cooperation. April 29, 10:00 to 11:30am. Live webcast here: http://bit.ly/1JtO1Qd

--“Deterrence Instability and Nuclear Weapons In South Asia,” featuring Michael Krepon and Brian Finlay. April 29, 12:30 to 2:00pm at the Stimson Center (Eighth Floor, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW). RSVP here: http://bit.ly/1Fc1mNS