NPT a Quiet Triumph, but Much Work Remains

Kerry and Moniz- “The [Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty] represents a heroic, if quiet, triumph of pragmatic cooperation to protect the world from nuclear dangers,” write Secretary of State John Kerry and Secretary of Energy Ernest Moniz in Foreign Policy. “There is still much to do. Reducing and eventually eliminating the nuclear threat will never be easy, but the NPT is our best tool in this fight.”

--“Since the United States signed the NPT in 1968, we have cut our nuclear arsenal by almost 85 percent. Through 20-plus years of cooperation with Russia, together we turned the equivalent of 20,000 Soviet nuclear warheads into energy that is lighting homes and offices across America.”

--“We still have a lot of work to do, and we know it… President Obama has made clear our willingness to pursue negotiations to reduce deployed strategic nuclear weapons below the level set by New START… We urge Moscow to be a willing partner… All nations share the responsibility to identify and develop... the best techniques and tools for monitoring nuclear stockpiles at lower numbers.” http://atfp.co/1DPQZdi

NPT notes - The Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty Review Conference kicks off today and runs through May 22. Today, Secretary of State Kerry and Iranian Foreign Minister Zarif will meet on the sidelines of the conference to continue talks over Iran’s nuclear program, Reuters reports. http://reut.rs/1A4Ub4g

--Also noteworthy: “Israel will take part as an observer in a major nuclear non-proliferation conference that opens at the United Nations on Monday, ending a 20-year absence in hope of fostering dialogue with Arab states, a senior Israeli official said.” From Reuters. http://reut.rs/1A4Ub4g

--See also: “As Nuclear Powers Meet, NYC Rally Demands End to Weapons,” from the AP. http://nyti.ms/1If37Lc

Poison pills - Republican opponents of the Iran nuclear deal are readying controversial amendments that could kill the Corker-Cardin bill by alienating Democratic supporters.

--Supporters of the bill, including lead author Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-GA), have warned against “poison pill” amendments, but their colleagues seem determined. Expected amendments include: requiring Iran to recognize the state of Israel (Sen. Marco Rubio), requiring the administration certify that Iran is not directly supporting terrorists’ actions against Americans (Sen. John Barrasso), and requiring that the final deal be ratified by the Senate as if it were a treaty. POLITICO reports. http://politi.co/1GoZu0s

--Senators will debate the Iran legislation on Monday, with votes not expected until at least Tuesday. The amendment process remains unclear. More from The Hill: http://bit.ly/1If49a7

Tweet - @FitzpatrickIISS: 'Iranian MPs Prepare Plan Requiring Parliament Approval of #IranDeal.' They like equivalency. http://t.co/Q8XalFVXuS

Unaffordable - The U.S. plans to spend an estimated $1 trillion to rebuild its nuclear arsenal over the coming decades. The challenge is that the Pentagon can’t afford it and would need an extra $10 to $12 billion annually by 2021 in order to pay for the weapons, note John Isaacs and Greg Terryn in a post at Nukes of Hazard.

--“The Pentagon is hoping that significantly more funding will be available by the time the budget crunch hits in the 2020s, but this is likely not the case, as it would require a political deal on national debt, the reduction in funding of conventional forces, or both. The Pentagon, or Congress, will need to take decisive action to avoid this budgetary train wreck.” http://bit.ly/1HOn6Bt

Tweet - @steven_pifer: Jim Goodby & I write on defining a joint enterprise to create conditions for a world without nuclear weapons. http://t.co/Ol6aO3PTL4

Hair-Trigger - Keeping the U.S. nuclear deterrent on ‘hair-trigger’ alert poses an unnecessary risk, writes Eryn MacDonald of the Union of Concerned Scientists.

--The NPT review conference provides an opportunity for the U.S. to rethink its alert posture. Last year, 160 states voted to support a resolution calling for removing all nuclear weapons from high alert. The U.S. should use the “opportunity of the RevCon to reclaim a leadership role in the international nonproliferation and disarmament regime,” argues MacDonald. http://bit.ly/1z5YmSd

Mixed messages - With growing concern over the nuclear weapons states’ commitment to fulfilling their disarmament obligations, the non-nuclear weapons states “can join in a new effort to enforce the NPT. They can begin the good faith negotiations to ban and eliminate nuclear weapons that the treaty demands. The U.S. should embrace this effort.” Steve Gilman writes in the Asheville Citizen Times on the disconnect between nuclear modernization efforts and NPT commitments. http://avlne.ws/1b6Dyi0

Abolition bill - For the 21st consecutive year, Del. Eleanor Holmes Norton (D-DC) introduced a bill (HR 1976) requiring the U.S. to negotiate and enter into a multilateral treaty that abolishes nuclear weapons. Bill text to be made available here. http://1.usa.gov/1zeWIhh

Quick Hits:

--“In Rare Remarks, George W. Bush Argues Against the Lifting of Iran Sanctions,” by Jason Horowitz and Maggie Haberman for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1dkjURg

--“Broaden the Talks With Iran,” by Mohammad Ali Shabani in The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1EJcza3

--“MOX costs rise, could hamper nonproliferation agreement,” by Meg Mirshak for The Augusta Chronicle. http://bit.ly/1EdidxR

Events:

--Senate begins floor votes on the Iran Nuclear Amendment Review Act of 2015, S. 615 (now included in H.R. 1191), April 28. Live webcast here: http://cs.pn/1OYfmeV

--“The Urgency of Action on the CTBT: Contributing to International Security in an Increasingly Unstable World” CTBT side event at the 2015 NPT Review Conference with Erzhan Ashikbayev, Rose Gottemoeller, Jayantha Dhanapala, Takeshi Hikihara, Lord Desmond Browne and Lassina Zerbo. April 28, 1:00-2:00pm, Trusteeship Council, United Nations Headquarters, New York. http://bit.ly/1DNGc6w

--House Armed Services Committee, markup of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, which includes the nuclear weapons and nonproliferation programs of the National Nuclear Security Administration. April 29 at 10:00am. Located at 2118 Rayburn House Office Building, Washington, DC. Webcast on the committee website. http://armedservices.house.gov/

--“A Conversation With H.E. Dr. Mohammad Javad Zarif, Foreign Minister of the Islamic Republic of Iran.” New America In partnership with the NYU Center on International Cooperation. April 29, 10:00 to 11:30am. Live webcast here: http://bit.ly/1JtO1Qd

--“Deterrence Instability and Nuclear Weapons In South Asia,” featuring Michael Krepon and Brian Finlay. April 29, 12:30 to 2:00pm at the Stimson Center (Eighth Floor, 1211 Connecticut Ave NW). RSVP here: http://bit.ly/1Fc1mNS

Dessert:

And we all go together - “Yep, the Cuba thing went bad. And I mean terrible. Someone made a mistake, maybe it was the Soviets, probably it was me, sorry about that but who cares?” reads a speech, dug up by (parody site) Clickhole, that JFK would have given if the Cuban Missile Crisis had triggered nuclear war.

--“Go now. Admit it. Humans are done, no one remembers, pay your taxes, vote Kennedy, goodnight, and God bless this fine nation.” Click through for the speech that never was. http://bit.ly/1A5S0gG