New Thinking on North Korea Sanctions

Unintended consequences - In response to North Korea’s nuclear activities, “we must tread carefully. The North and its young leader rarely act as expected. Pressing too hard – and in the wrong way – could in fact backfire, resulting in the very things that we have been trying so long to avoid: another war on the Korean Peninsula and a terrorist attack using ‘loose’ nuclear material secreted out of North Korea,” writes Philip Yun for The National Interest. “[W]e don’t know how much pressure North Korea’s untested leader can take in an intensely provocative environment… We must also understand that there is a significant downside if international sanctions and other forms of pressure work too well.”

--“Make no mistake: North Korea will have a small, but sophisticated arsenal if we don’t find a way to soon freeze the North’s nuclear weapons activity. However, we also need to avoid the siren call of a policy sledgehammer, when nuance is needed -- robust enough to make North Korea feel the heat, but is sufficiently subtle so neither we nor our allies end up getting badly burned. Otherwise, our failure to strike this balance will result in what is sure to become an even bigger problem for a new Administration to deal with.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2dIp2CN

See also - “U.S. expects 'significant' progress on tougher North Korea sanctions: diplomat,” by David Brunnstrom for Reuters. http://reut.rs/2eonvTc

Tweet - @TheEconomist: After five nuclear tests in a decade, the biggest and most recent in August, a sixth may be in the offing http://econ.st/2dKin9L

UK disguises nuclear subs upgrade - “Last month, the British government signed off on what might be the most controversial and least promising plan for a nuclear power station in a generation,” writes Peter Wynn Kirby for The New York Times. “[T]he project isn’t just about energy: It’s also a stealth initiative to bolster Britain’s nuclear deterrent… If the Hinkley plan seems outrageous, that’s because it only makes sense if one considers its connection to Britain’s military projects — especially Trident, a roving fleet of armed nuclear submarines.”

--“A painstaking study of obscure British military policy documents, released last month by the Science Policy Research Unit at the University of Sussex, demonstrates that the government and some of its partners in the defense industry, like Rolls-Royce and BAE Systems, think a robust civilian nuclear industry is essential to revamping Britain’s nuclear submarine program. For proponents of Trident, civilian nuclear projects are a way of ‘masking’ the high costs of developing a new fleet of nuclear submarines.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/2dUuB11

US Russia freeze continues - Last week, Russia’s President Putin suspended the plutonium disposition agreement with the United States. “Washington and Moscow are now sitting on a stockpile of plutonium good for tens of thousands of nuclear weapons,” writes Jeffrey Lewis for Foreign Policy. “Once upon a time, there was a collective belief among American and Russian scientists that they could do something about the shared danger posed by nuclear weapons... without the belief that we can cooperate, what are we other than doomed?” Full story here. http://atfp.co/2e9XC9w

Tweet - @GlobalZero: 30 yrs ago today, Pres Reagan & Pres Gorbachev came to Reykjavik to show that a world w/o nukes is within reach. bit.ly/2dNiBgF

Russia deploys nuclear-capable missiles - “Russia has played down the significance of the deployment of nuclear-capable Iskander missiles to the Russian outpost of Kaliningrad after the move led to protests from Estonia, Poland and Lithuania, underlining tensions about Russian intentions,” writes Patrick Wintour for The Guardian. “The deployment of the missiles was part of regular drills and was not a secret, the Russian defence ministry insisted.”

--“‘The deployment not only increases tensions in the region but also possibly violates international treaties,’ Lithuania’s foreign minister, Linas Linkevičius, was quoted as saying by Reuters. He also promised to raise the issue at the next Russia-Nato summit.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2dY2b83

Tweet - @NuclearWatchNM: Nuclear-armed drones? They may be closer than you think | Asia Times http://bit.ly/2dXP8TX

Nuclear terrorism - “Islamist militants are turning their attention to the atomic industry's weak spots, security experts say… Security experts say that blowing up a nuclear reactor is beyond the skills of militant groups, but that the nuclear industry has some vulnerabilities that could be exploited,” write Geert De Clercq and Christoph Steitz for Reuters.

--"Experts also worry about militants pilfering radioactive material from medical or industrial installations... Stolen radioactive material from these shipments could be combined with traditional explosives to create a ‘dirty bomb’... IAEA Director General Yukiya Amano said last month only a handful of these incidents involved material that could be used to make a nuclear explosive device, but some of the missing material could go toward devising a dirty bomb. ‘The fact there has never been a major terrorist attack involving radioactive material does not mean it could not happen,’ Amano said.” Full article here. http://reut.rs/2dYCYWD

Kazakhstan: Denuclearization works - “Since gaining independence in 1991, one of our first acts was to decommission our nuclear arsenal, the world's fourth largest at that time. We also shut down the Semipalatinsk nuclear test site. Ever since, we have been a steadfast champion for nuclear non-proliferation. The Kazakh people are well aware of the horrors of nuclear weaponry. The Soviet Union's Semipalatinsk test site was situated on our own soil,” writes Kazakhstan’s Foreign Minister Erlan Idrissov for Global Times.

--“Destroying our nuclear weaponry was not intended to, nor has it, reduced our ability to defend ourselves. Kazakhstan contributed to creating a Central Asia free from nuclear weapons and thanks to our multi-vector foreign policy and good relations with all our neighbors and partners, remote and close, we have demonstrated that the possession of nuclear weapons is not necessary to ensure national security.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/2e0qlyx

Lessons from Command and Control - Eric Schlosser’s powerful film tells “the story of how a dropped socket during routine maintenance almost led to a nuclear warhead detonation that would have decimated much of Arkansas and spread radioactive fallout all the way to the East Coast,” writes Josh Rash for Star Tribune. “[T]he film reveals, there have been more than 1,000 ‘broken arrow’ incidents. ‘The core message of this film is that nuclear weapons are machines controlled by fallible human beings, and human beings make mistakes all the time,’ said Joe Cirincione, president of the Ploughshares Fund.”

--“‘Nuclear weapons are the only weapons that are actually an existential threat to the United States,’ said Cirincione, who explained that using one current nuclear weapon would create a level of destruction not seen since World War II. Ten, he said, would represent a level of destruction unprecedented in human history. And ‘the use of 100 could end human history.’ ‘We have to reduce this threat before something truly terrible happens.’” Full story here. http://strib.mn/2eo43G7

Quick Hits:

--“Why some dictators are more likely to get nuclear weapons. 5 lessons from Iraq and Libya,” by Malfrid Braut-Hegghammer for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2dRI6hN

--“Today's Nukes Are Thousands of Times More Powerful Than WWII A-Bombs,” by Jay Bennett for Popular Mechanics. http://bit.ly/2e313Qv

--“The US Air Force Just Dropped Two Fake Nukes,” by Marcus Weisgerber for Defense One. http://bit.ly/2dIKjhL

--“When America Tested Nuclear Weapons Right Outside Las Vegas,” by Steve Weintz for National Interest. http://bit.ly/2e31p9N

--“ICBM Basing Modes” podcast by Jeffrey Lewis for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/2dUy5AL

--“Marshall Islands Can’t Sue the World’s Nuclear Powers, U.N. Court Rules” by Marlise Simons for The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/2dUBRtA

Events:

--“Iran: Rising Power in the Middle East,” with Joseph Cirincione, President of Ploughshares Fund, and other panelists. October 13 at Chapman University, Orange County campus, Beckman Hall 404, Orange, CA. http://chapma.nu/2doMqRP

--“A New Strategy for US-Iran Relations,” panel with Ellen Laipson, Michael Connell, Amir Handjani, and moderated by David Sanjer. October 19 at Atlantic Council, 1030 15th ST NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC. RSVP Here. http://bit.ly/2cNu01w

--“Book Launch: My Journey at the Nuclear Brink," with William Perry, former Defense Secretary on October 24 at 7:00 p.m., at All Souls Unitarian Church, 1157 Lexington Ave., New York. http://bit.ly/2dbK499