The Perils of Presidential Nuclear Authority

The Presidency’s nuclear threat - “When it comes to starting a nuclear war, the President has more freedom than he or she does in, say, ordering the use of torture. The so-called National Command Authority gives the president unilateral power to direct the use of nuclear weapons under any circumstances, subject only to secondary confirmation by the Secretary of Defense, who—if confirmation is not forthcoming—can be immediately fired at the sole discretion of the President,” writes Lawrence Krauss for The New Yorker.

--“At the end of the day, there is no such thing as ironclad protection against accidental or planned nuclear conflagrations as long as the U.S. and Russia possess thousands of nuclear weapons. That’s why the Non-Proliferation Treaty didn’t just restrict non-nuclear nations from obtaining nuclear weapons but also required nations possessing them to disarm. For as long as we continue to ignore this fundamental reality, we will continue to hover at the brink of Armageddon. It should be impossible for Trump, or any President, to push us over it.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/2e09I4z

Tweet - @nukestrat: Interesting @FLIxrisk infographic on Obama nuclear legacy https://goo.gl/Ktctet Uses FAS warhead data from here: http://bit.ly/1zdfdC3

Presidential flaws and nuclear power - “The system of nuclear command and control places extreme pressure on hundreds of operators, and excruciating demands on one person: the president. In the midst of crisis, this system might generate highly uncertain information and confusion, and even fail with catastrophic effects. All of which call for a calm and rational respect for the war-making machinery — and the utmost caution in deciding whether to employ nuclear forces,” writes Bruce Blair for The New York Times.

--“All presidents have flaws that cast some doubt on their nuclear judgment. In 1973 [Yom Kippur war], as it turned out, President Nixon was not in charge when the order came down to prepare for nuclear conflict… His unelected advisers, led by the national security adviser, Henry A. Kissinger, and Defense Secretary James R. Schlesinger, ran the show that night… Under the Constitution, no one could veto a bad call by [the president]. The 90 launch officers who are always on duty in the Great Plains, along with their counterparts in submarines patrolling the oceans, would have no choice but to execute the most morally reprehensible order ever issued in the history of warfare.” Full story here. http://nyti.ms/2dMofQG

Tweet - @plough_shares: Leading from ahead: It’s Time to Cut America’s #Nuclear Arsenal @KingstonAReif & @DarylGKimball in @BulletinAtomic http://bit.ly/2dQ6H4h

U.S. testing nuclear detectors - “Federal researchers reported Wednesday they detonated an underground explosion comparable to nearly 2.5 tons of TNT at a vast former nuclear proving ground in the desert north of Las Vegas,” writes Ken Ritter for The Washington Post. “The U.S. Energy Department’s National Nuclear Security Administration said in a statement the explosion was the sixth in a series designed to test equipment and methods for detecting underground nuclear explosions. Five more blasts are planned over the next two years.”

--“Anne Harrington, agency deputy administrator for defense nuclear nonproliferation, called the... series important to strengthening U.S. national security. ‘These efforts advance technical solutions for treaty monitoring by the United States and its partner nations,’ she said. Conducting the blast near the sites of previous underground nuclear tests allowed researchers to compare seismic waves generated by conventional and nuclear explosions. ‘This helps to improve the U.S. capability to differentiate low-yield nuclear test explosions from other seismic activity, such as mining operations and small earthquakes,’ the statement said.” Full piece here. http://wapo.st/2e8i8Zk

Tweet - @ICRC: “There was nothing but silence and desolation.” The human cost of #nuclear weapons: http://bit.ly/ebrief-4

Nobel Laureates call for nuclear disarmament - “This month the United Nations has the opportunity to take a major step toward the elimination of nuclear weapons. It is an opportunity that must not be lost,” write six Nobel Laureates for The Huffington Post. As members of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, “the nuclear powers have not kept their part of the bargain. While the US and Russia have dismantled many of their nuclear weapons since the end of the Cold War, they retain thousands of them, enough to destroy the world many times over.”

--“The non-nuclear weapons states must resist that pressure, and continue their historic efforts to protect humanity from the grave threat posed by nuclear weapons. And the citizens of nuclear weapons states must hold their governments accountable for their unconscionable refusal to meet their treaty obligations and negotiate the elimination of these weapons, which are the greatest threat to the security of all peoples throughout the world.” Full story here. http://huff.to/2d9XMZk

Tweet - @BrookingsFP: The U.S. & its allies should make North Korea choose between nuclear weapons & regime survival, writes Evans Revere http://brook.gs/2dN8V5p

South Korea’s defense dilemma- “North Korea’s nuclear push is triggering a military buildup here and adding fuel to a hot debate over South Korea’s defense strategy—including whether the country should have its own nuclear option,” writes Alastaire Gale for The Wall Street Journal. “In a report last month, a panel of experts that advises South Korean President Park Geun-hyeon policies to reunify the Korean Peninsula also suggested studying the reintroduction of U.S. nuclear weapons… Asked about the experts’ report, the president’s spokesman said: ‘Our government’s position remains unchanged and we are committed to a nuclear-free Korean peninsula.’”

--“While Washington and its allies try to find ways to slow Pyongyang’s progress, including through tighter sanctions and diplomatic pressure, Seoul has launched conventional weapons upgrades... Joo Seung-young, a member of a minor opposition party, said this month that U.S. bomber flights ‘might just heighten nuclear tension’ on the Korean Peninsula.” Van Jackson, associate professor at the Asia-Pacific Center for Security Studies in Honolulu, “advocated a de-emphasis of nuclear weapons and more-regular exercises that demonstrate a swift and strong conventional response to the type of limited attacks North Korea has staged in the past.” Full story here. http://on.wsj.com/2dmABOV

Quick Hits:

--“Russian Envoy sees Cooperation with US in Arctic, Space, Nonproliferation,” by Sputnik International. http://bit.ly/2d9CZu7

--“What do you do with 34 metric tons of weapons-grade plutonium?” by Michael Koziol for Popular Science. http://bit.ly/2daKThX

--“Presidential Nuclear Codes: Separating Fact from Fiction,” by Maria Keena for CBS St. Louis. http://cbsloc.al/2ecytrI

--“Boeing bids in nuclear ballistic missile program,” by Jamie Mcintyre for Washington Examiner. http://washex.am/2evImnm

--“The well-read wonk on democracy and the bomb,” by Michael Krepon for Arms Control Wonk. http://bit.ly/2dKEAUK

--“US reserves right to punish China firms working with NKorea,” by Matthew Pennington for The Washington Post. http://wapo.st/2evAjHk

--“South Asia: Beyond crisis management,” by Mario E. Carranza for Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists. http://bit.ly/2ekfzDf

Events:

--“A New Strategy for US-Iran Relations,” panel with Ellen Laipson, Michael Connell, Amir Handjani, and moderated by David Sanjer. October 19 at Atlantic Council, 1030 15th ST NW, 12th Floor, Washington, DC. RSVP Here. http://bit.ly/2cNu01w

--“Able Archer 83: The Secret History,” presentation by Nate Jones. October 20th at 3:00pm in the Wilson Center’s 6th Floor Moynihan Board Room. Full details here. http://bit.ly/2e4cOBK

--“Book Launch: My Journey at the Nuclear Brink," with William Perry, former Defense Secretary on October 24 at 7:00 p.m., at All Souls Unitarian Church, 1157 Lexington Ave., New York. http://bit.ly/2dbK499

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