New Report: Nuclear Modernization Plans are Unsustainable

Pricey Plans - The Department of Defense plans to modernize all three legs of the nuclear arsenal at once, while modernizing conventional forces as well. “These modernization programs, if not altered from current plans, will require either an increase in defense spending or a reallocation of resources within the defense budget,” writes Todd Harrison in a report from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

--The new administration should “ensure funding priorities align with strategic priorities … Some 59 percent of the funding for major acquisition programs over the next 15 years is locked into just 10 programs ... intended to support high-end conventional and nuclear conflict. Allocating such a large portion of the budget to a specific set of capabilities could shortchange other mission areas and lead to further reductions in force structure.” Read the full report here. http://bit.ly/1NAO4ts

Tweet - @USAF_CUWS: Experts: Costs for upgrading weapons will put further pressure on US forces http://1.usa.gov/1ND6zO1

Kerry pushes for action from China - “Secretary of State John Kerry warned China on Wednesday that North Korea was moving ahead with an effort to manufacture a nuclear weapon small enough to fit atop a long-range missile that could reach American shores, and said the United States ‘will do what is necessary to protect the people of our country.’ ... Mr. Kerry adopted the tough tone after nearly five hours of talks with Mr. Wang that were dominated by North Korea and what the United States and China, a treaty ally of the North, should do in the aftermath of the latest nuclear test,” write Jane Perlez and David Sanger of The New York Times.

--“As part of his attempt to persuade Beijing, Mr. Kerry used the example of the recent Iran deal: The restrictions on Iran’s banks and financial institutions to conduct transactions abroad helped bring that country to the negotiating table over its nuclear program, a feat that Mr. Kerry led and that China supported, along with Russia. Mr. Kerry used the news conference to urge China to take similar actions against North Korea and to create another ‘united front.’” Full article here. http://nyti.ms/23taYie

A Plan for North Korea - “More countries have given up nuclear capabilities in the past 30 years than have tried to acquire them. None of these were easy cases ... Can we add North Korea to the list? It will not be easy; it may be the toughest case so far. But there is a way,” argues Joe Cirincione in the APPS Policy Forum.

--“We will need a comprehensive plan. Nuclear crises manifest regionally but nuclear weapons are a global problem requiring a global solution. Nuclear whack-a-mole is a loser’s game. Any solution must tie the particular problem to universal norms and standards. In the case of North Korea, this means pursuing three main avenues to strengthen the barriers to getting nuclear weapons, increasing the penalties for violating global norms and increasing the incentives for giving up weapons and capabilities.” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1RNGiUR

See also - “The West must talk to North Korea,” by Philip Yun for the National Interest. http://bit.ly/1ZAwKBc

Doomsday Clock unchanged - The hands of the Doomsday Clock will remain at three minutes to midnight, the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists has announced. The Bulletin cited growing nuclear tensions with Russia and rising global temperatures in its decision to keep the clock at its current time. However, “the ability of key nuclear weapon states to cooperate on nuclear non-proliferation is one of the few bright spots in the world nuclear landscape,” reports the Bulletin’s Science and Security Board.

--“The year 2015 abounded in disturbing nuclear rhetoric, particularly about the usability of nuclear weapons, but contained at least one real achievement: the landmark Iran nuclear deal. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) that the United States, China, Russia, Germany, France, and the United Kingdom reached with Iran in July 2015 ends several decades of uncertainty about Tehran’s nuclear capabilities.” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1Qqtl04

Israel urges test ban - “Israel supports a regional nuclear test moratorium and calls on Egypt and Iran to reiterate their commitment to the CTBT — the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty … The Israeli representative to the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), Ambassador Merav Zafary-Odiz, said that ‘a regional moratorium could enhance security, and potentially lead to a future ratification of the CTBT. Israel has announced its commitment to a moratorium, it would be useful for others to do the same,’” reports Tal Shalev for i24news.

--“Zafary-Odiz echoed comments made earlier this week by the CTBTO executive secretary, Lassina Zerbo, who told reporters he supports a ‘test-free zone in the Middle East, and then we can start working on the WMD-free zone. Let Israel and Iran agree on the low-hanging fruit, bring people in the Middle East to something that is solid, and prepare the framework for further regional measures.’” Full piece here. http://bit.ly/1SdBwRh

Tweet - @SenatorShaheen: Watch my remarks on the Senate floor about the work needed to successfully implement the Iran nuclear deal. http://bit.ly/1PD6AD2

Tens of thousands to protest nukes in London - “Jeremy Corbyn will address an estimated 50,000 people in Trafalgar Square in the biggest anti-nuclear march for a generation as campaigners begin a ‘mass lobby’ of MPs over [British nuclear program] Trident … Campaigners want to deliver a message to Parliament that spending more than £100 billion on Trident renewal during a period of austerity is a ‘ridiculous diversion of funds,’” Ben Riley-Smith reports in The Telegraph.

--“A message on [the Campaign for Nuclear Disarmament’s] website reads: ‘Join us to say No to government plans to buy a new system at a cost of over £100 billion. Parliament will be voting on this in 2016. So this is urgent – we can't delay.’ A campaign source said: ‘We are hoping to make it the biggest demonstration against nuclear weapons since the 1980s. We are really going all out to make this as big as possible.’” Full story here. http://bit.ly/1SJQgXI

Quick Hits:

--“Ted Cruz’s dumbed-down politics,” by Scot Lehigh in the Boston Globe. http://bit.ly/1nyq0mw

--“Global security experts call for comprehensive debate ahead of Trident replacement decision,” press release from the University of Bristol. http://bit.ly/1lWFjDZ

--“Pope Francis meets Iranian president Rouhani to promote cooperation, nuke deal, religious freedom,” by Doug G. Ware in United Press International. http://bit.ly/1nRlSxH

--“Pentagon in open brawl over spending priorities,” by Austin Wright in Politico. http://politi.co/1OVhNPW

Events:

--“National White House Call-In Day to Stop the Nuclear Cruise Missile,” hosted by Global Zero. Feb. 1 from 9:00 a.m. to 12:00 p.m. Details here. http://bit.ly/1TpWnzD

--“After the Iran Deal: The Future of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” featuring Thomas Countryman, Assistant Secretary of State. Feb. 4 from 12:00 p.m. to 1:30 p.m. at Fort McNair, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, Washington. RSVP to Mitchell Armbruster by email. More information here. http://bit.ly/1SM83gE

--“Underestimated: Our Not So Peaceful Nuclear Future,” featuring Henry Sololski, The Nonproliferation Policy Education Center. Feb. 4 from 12:00 p.m. to 1:00 p.m. at the University of Utah, Hinckley Caucus Room (Room 255), 260 S. Central Campus Dr., Salt Lake City. Details here. http://bit.ly/1lWTrNr

--“The Growing Danger of Nuclear War — and What We Can Do About It,” featuring Ira Helfand, International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War. Feb. 8 at 4:30 p.m. at Cornell University, Smith Hall, 232 East Ave., Ithaca, NY. Details here. http://bit.ly/1nAIjrb

--“A History of Nuclear Proliferation: Iran Today,” featuring Thomas Reed, former Secretary of the Air Force. Feb. 9 at 1:00 p.m. at the Institute of World Politics, 1521 16th St. NW, Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1KHqFqq