Nuclear Overkill: We Don’t Need the Cruise Missile

Nuclear wild card - Spending “up to $30 billion to create a new nuclear cruise missile meant to be carried by the aging B-52 bomber makes no sense financially or strategically,” writes the editorial board of Bloomberg News. Cruise missiles “are the wild card of the nuclear arsenal: Unlike ICBMs, they are very hard to spot by radar or satellite, and, even if detected, they’re indistinguishable from conventionally armed cruise missiles.”

--“This is a problem because a successful deterrence strategy requires that both sides in a potential nuclear conflict have a pretty good idea of what the other would do. Three years ago, the U.K. decided not to develop a submarine-based nuclear-tipped cruise missile because it carries too great a risk of “miscalculation and unintended escalation.”

“In the early days of the Cold War, this weapon may have made sense,” but the U.S. now has a fleet of penetrating stealth bombers that fulfill the airborne nuclear deterrence mission. Development of the next generation of stealth bombers is underway, with production planned for 2025. “Given all this, spending billions on a new nuclear cruise missile isn’t the best or wisest use of resources… Doing so would not make the U.S., or the world, any safer.” Read the full editorial here. http://bv.ms/1VCzpE4

Evaluating the nuclear balance - “Today, many observers continue to think of the nuclear balance as delicate. There is a strong impulse in the United States to maintain capabilities that mirror those of its adversaries and materially respond to new developments… Many share the concerns of Alabama Republican Rep. Mike Rogers, chairman of the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Strategic Forces, who said at a December hearing that he is ‘greatly worried that the United States stands the risk of losing the next arms race to Russia and China,’” writes Adam Mount for the Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists.

--“The fact is, though, that the nuclear balance is not as delicate as it once was, and we are living in a time of acute fiscal austerity and manifold military priorities. Risk, moreover, is an inherent part of nuclear strategy. If Washington can’t learn to live with risk, the cost of closing small and hypothetical gaps in the nuclear arsenal will be paid in harsh currency: by sacrificing conventional military priorities, the welfare of citizens, and the country’s long-term ability to compete in a changing world.” Read the full column here. http://bit.ly/1QCM6NZ

Boomer slip up - “A November accident has cost a U.S. submarine commander his job and taxpayers at least $1 million, the Navy says. The USS Georgia, an Ohio-class guided missile submarine, struck a channel buoy and grounded as it was returning to port in Kings Bay, Georgia, on November 25.” Brad Lendon has the story for CNN. http://cnn.it/1NODGyx

Tweet - @TomCollina: Unreal...U.S. May Build 500 Jets Before Finding Out If the F-35 Works http://bloom.bg/1NODsHL @ACapaccio

Iran deal must be maintained - “Not only has… the Iran nuclear deal... provided new ways to communicate and resolve incidents with a sometimes hostile adversary, it has also strengthened global peace and security by preventing Iran from building a nuclear weapon — without firing a shot. As a result of the deal, Iran has gone from being two to three months away from enough material for one bomb to one year away,” write Susan Shear and Erica Fein for The World Post.

--“Supporters of diplomacy with Iran must remain ever vigilant. As its detractors like to point out, the Iran deal is not a treaty. Future presidents can disregard its provisions if they see fit. The diplomatic channel that helped with the safe release of our sailors and the release of five American prisoners can easily dry up with different leadership… While foreign policy doesn't always loom large in elections, this issue should rise to the top of voters' minds. In the end, it is about nothing less than war and peace.” Full piece here. http://huff.to/1o2pEEH

Video - Watch Sen. Tim Kaine on the importance of information provided by the Iran Deal. http://cs.pn/1JVq3CZ

We need to talk to North Korea - “Under the Obama administration, U.S. policy toward North Korea largely has devolved into the president sitting in the Oval Office, closing his eyes, and hoping the nuclear monsters will go away. Alas, it hasn't worked. Pyongyang has staged its 4th nuclear test and may well be working on the hydrogen bomb that it falsely claimed to have tested this time,” argues Doug Bandow in The World Post.

--“North Korea's latest nuclear test is bad news, though hardly a surprise. Indeed, it's probably the inevitable outcome of a policy which continues to confront Pyongyang militarily without engaging it diplomatically. If Washington wants a different result, it will have to employ a different approach. Which means engagement.” Full piece here. http://huff.to/1m0ni7K

Tweet - @NTI_WMD: Nuclear security isn't easy, but there are steps govts can take to improve like transparency & int'l cooperation http://bit.ly/1dyqYKa

A Call for ratification of the test ban treaty - “‘We must act urgently,’ Lassina Zerbo, executive secretary of the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty Organization (CTBTO) told reporters… Negotiated in the 1990s, the Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) enjoys wide global support but must be ratified by eight more nuclear technology states — among them Israel, Iran, Egypt and the United States — to come into force,” report Marine Pennetier, Michel Rose and Tom Heneghan for Reuters.

--“The CTBTO hopes the eight nations that have not ratified the treaty could agree to a roadmap in June, that would include a moratorium in the Middle East, a discussion with North Korea to ‘bring it toward a moratorium’ and a trust agreement between China and the United States.” Full piece here. http://reut.rs/1nZUHAY

See also - Daryl Kimball interviews Joe Cirincione at the CTBTO symposium on Science & Diplomacy for Peace & Security. http://bit.ly/1QXsW7s More video recordings of the symposium, held from Jan. 25 to Feb. 4 in Vienna, here. http://bit.ly/1NOCTNW

Tweet - @ArmsControlNow: #FactSheet: Nuclear Testing and CTBT Timeline, 1945-2016 →http://bit.ly/1UoSedw | #CTBT20

Investigation needed at Los Alamos Lab - Three whistleblowers have requested that the U.S. Attorney for the District of New Mexico “reopen an investigation into fraud and corruption at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) and the questionable suicide in 2002 of the then-recently retired Lab Deputy Director.” They argue “a full and complete investigation is needed in order to clean house and help ensure that one of the premier nuclear weapons labs, long plagued by scandal, is properly managed in the future,” writes Jay Coghlan for NukeWatch.

--“Federally protected whistleblower Chuck Montaño added, ‘The Los Alamos Lab is a cash cow for the military-industrial complex, and because politicians are so beholden to these corporations, there’s zero accountability for the fraud, waste and abuse that keeps occurring in Los Alamos. We are seeking to end that by asking the U.S. Attorney for New Mexico to intervene and go wherever the facts may take him.’” Find the full article here. http://bit.ly/1UGxPko

Anti-nuke activist dies - “Dr. Herbert L. Abrams, a radiologist at Stanford and Harvard universities and a founder of International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, which won the Nobel Peace Prize in 1985 for its work in publicizing the health consequences of atomic warfare, died on Jan. 20 at his home in Palo Alto, Calif. He was 95,” reports William Grimes for The New York Times. Abrams also directed Physicians for Social Responsibility for many years.

--“With a group of American and Soviet doctors, he helped create International Physicians for the Prevention of Nuclear War, with the goal of publicizing the health risks of a nuclear exchange and countering theories that physicians might be able to save enough people to continue civilized life. He later called nuclear weapons and nuclear war ‘the central health issue of the 20th century.’” Read the full obituary here. http://nyti.ms/1m8VsGl

Quick Hits:

--“Head to Head: Mark Dubowitz and Joseph Cirincione on the Iran Nuclear Agreement,” by Samuel Rubinstein for Brown Political Review. http://bit.ly/1nKtMt8

--“Six Things You Should Know About the U.S. Nuclear Weapons Arsenal,” by Reinvent. http://bit.ly/1P1d6Gy

--“The Pentagon’s Pricey Culture of Mediocrity,” by Dan Grazier for the Project on Government Oversight. http://bit.ly/1P1d6Gy

--“Marshall Islands sue Britain, India and Pakistan over nuclear weapons,” reports AFP for The Guardian. http://bit.ly/1UweSkt

--“Protester’s warning about the existence of nuclear weapons lives on,” letter to the editor of The Washington Post by Tad daley. http://wapo.st/1SyX3lJ

--“Mr. Lavrov, Russia, and the Budapest Memorandum,” by Steven Pifer for the Brookings Institution. http://brook.gs/1UEahN8

--“Three minutes to midnight no time to rebuild Trident missiles,” by David Hall for the Herald Net. http://bit.ly/1KUidnK

--“How North Korea’s nuclear threats have spiraled over the decades,” by Jesselyn Cook for The World Post. http://huff.to/1TsuBmc

--“Doomsday and the history of nuclear weapons,” by the Data Team at the Economist. http://econ.st/1PwNdjd

Events:

--“Setting Priorities for Nuclear Modernization,” featuring Lawrence Korb, Center for American Progress; Ellen Tauscher, former Undersecretary of State for Arms Control and International Security; Gen. Eugene Habiger, former Commander in Chief, U.S. Strategic Command; and Todd Harrison, Center for Strategic and International Studies. Feb. 3 from 10:00 to 11:30 a.m. at the Center for American Progress, 1333 H St. NW, 10th Floor, Washington. RSVP here. http://ampr.gs/1WQb4vJ

--“North Korea’s Fourth Nuclear Test: How Will Pyongyang’s Neighbors and the U.S. Respond?” featuring Jonathan Pollack, Brookings Institution; Katharine Moon, Brookings Institution; and Sheila Smith, Council on Foreign Relations. Feb. 3 from 10:00 to 11:30 a.m. at the Brookings Institution, Falk Auditorium, 1775 Massachusetts Ave. NW, Washington. Register online. http://brook.gs/20jHTXj

--“Iranian Public Opinion on Foreign Affairs on the Eve of Parliamentary Elections,” featuring Ebrahim Mohseni, University of Tehran Center for Public Opinion Research; William Miller, Wilson Center; Paul Pillar, Georgetown University; and Robin Wright, Wilson Center. FEb. 3 at 10:00 a.m. at the Wilson Center, 5th Floor Conference Room, Ronald Reagan Building and International Trade Center, One Woodrow Wilson Plaza, 1300 Pennsylvania, Ave., NW Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/23DYvs1

--“After the Iran Deal: The Future of the Nuclear Nonproliferation Regime,” featuring Thomas Countryman, Assistant Secretary of State. Feb. 4 from 12:00 to 1:30 p.m., at Fort McNair, Lincoln Hall, Room 1119, Washington. RSVP info here. http://bit.ly/1SM83gE

--“ISIS’ Hunt for WMDs: Navigating the Nuclear Underworld,” featuring Christopher Chivers, New York Times. Feb. 9 from 3:30 to 5:00 p.m. at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, 1616 Rhode Island Ave. NW, Washington. Webcast will be available on the CSIS website.RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1T1I8kx

--“Great Rifts: Political and Economic Ramifications of the Iran-Saudi Divide,” featuring Frederic C. Hof, Atlantic Council; Amir Handjani, PG International Commodity Trading Services; Sara Vakhshouri​, Atlantic Council; and David Ottaway, Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars. Feb. 9 at 10:00 a.m. at the Atlantic Council, 1030 15th Street NW, 12th Floor (West Tower Elevator), Washington. RSVP online. http://bit.ly/1So0Wvz

Dessert:

Quiz: False alarms and near misses - The history of nuclear weapons is filled with moments of near catastrophe, some more outlandish than others. Take this Buzzfeed quiz to see if you can tell the difference between real life and the movies. http://bzfd.it/1P1TVdg