Budget Request Skimps on Nonproliferation, Plumps Up Weapons Work

On the radar: Nonproliferation down, bombs up; Missile defense request dips; Business as usual with North Korea; Bushehr quake; and Detecting nuclear tests with your iPhone.

April 10, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Strange priorities - The Obama administration’s budget request is expected to cut $460 million - a 20% reduction - from programs aimed at stopping the spread of nuclear weapons, while adding approximately $500 million to nuclear weapons activities, reports R. Jeffrey Smith and Douglas Birch at the Center for Public Integrity.

--Much of the reduction in nonproliferation spending - around $183 million - is expected to come from cutting the MOX facility, a troubled plutonium fuel plant. The rest of the cut to nonproliferation programs would come mostly from programs to secure weapons-usable fissile material and prevent nuclear smuggling.

--One congressional aide told reporters that the budget shift “is going to be a disaster,” particularly as they aim to add to weapons programs that lawmakers believe “have been mismanaged for the last five to six years.” Full report here. http://bit.ly/16QIj6s

Budget prep - Chart of prior years funding levels for Pentagon and NNSA nuclear weapons programs, provided by Kingston Reif at Nukes of Hazard. http://bit.ly/14XhX6l

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BMD budget - The Pentagon is expected to request $9.16 billion for missile defense programs for FY14, about $550 million less than requested for FY13. “This year’s missile defense request is lower than last year’s primarily because the administration is requesting no funding for the ground-based, mobile Medium Extended Air Defense System (MEADS),” reports Bloomberg. http://bloom.bg/Xsgtwz

MEADS Liferaft - The Pentagon has decided to use $380 million from the recent continuing resolution to provide funds for MEADS in FY13, despite the FY13 defense authorization bill prohibiting funding the program. Jeremy Herb at The Hill has the details. http://bit.ly/10LV9AX

Stay calm - Despite North Korea’s bluster and shouting, South Koreans remain calm. “In fact, most people in Seoul don’t care about the North’s belligerent statements. Why? Because Pyongyang’s fiery rhetoric is merely business as usual, writes Andrei Lankov in The New York Times.

--”If history is any guide, in a few weeks’ time things will calm down. North Korea’s media will tell its people that the might of the People’s Army and the strategic genius of their new young leader made the terrified American imperialists cancel their plans to invade the North. Meanwhile, North Korea’s diplomats will approach their international counterparts and start probing for aid and political concessions...But it does not make sense to credulously take their fake belligerence at face value and give them the attention they want now,” writes Lankov. Full article here. http://goo.gl/5KNR1

Lavrov on DPRK - "There is no disagreement with the United States over North Korea,” Russian Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov said at a meeting with Secretary Kerry on Wednesday. Alluding to recent US military moves, Lavrov remarked: “One should not frighten anybody with military manoeuvres,” Reuters reports. http://goo.gl/T0EEd

Action, reaction - North Korea’s brinksmanship could just be an action-reaction cycle, where the North believes it must escalate its actions for credibility sake. This increases the risk that the North might be goaded into dangerous escalation by external cynicism, despite North Korean decision makers not really wanting escalation into a disastrous war, writes Robert E. Kelly in The Diplomat. http://bit.ly/Ykgpk2

Tweet - @Reuters: Earthquake hits near Iran's nuclear city; 30 dead. reut.rs/10PxKQy

Tweet - @Reuters: Quake caused no reactor damage, Iran tells IAEA reut.rs/10Qxfpk

Strengthening nuclear security - “While the threat of a nuclear war has plummeted since the end of the Cold War, the risk posed by the spread of nuclear materials has risen...more can - and must - be done” write Maj. Gen. George Buskirk and Alexandra Toma in Roll Call.

--Recommended next steps: The Senate should pass the Convention on the 2005 Amendment to the Physical Protection of Nuclear Material and the 2005 International Convention on the Suppression of Acts of Nuclear Terrorism, both of which have the support of the military and legislators on both sides of the aisle,” write Toma and Buskirk. Full op-ed here. http://goo.gl/9LVJa

Tweet - @TheNatlInterest: Four years after his Prague speech, big hurdles remain for @BarackObama's arms control agenda. Steven Pifer explains. http://goo.gl/44zY3

This week in terrible ideas - Chung Mong-joon, a former leader of the South Korean governing party, suggested that South Korea should break with the Nonproliferation Treaty, seek nuclear weapons, and accept the redeployment of US tactical nuclear weapons to South Korea in remarks at the Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. ”Mr. Chung’s position is a fairly lonely one,” writes David Sanger. That said, his comments may “give Washington more pause over a recent South Korean government push for the right to produce its own nuclear fuel to feed its civil nuclear program.” From The New York Times. http://goo.gl/WXR23

Events:

--”Kim, Kim, Kim: Dissolving North Korea’s Dynasty of Despair.” Panel with Joe Cirincione, Ted Nace, Jay Parker, and Alice Rivlin. April 10 from 1:30-2:50 at the Conference on World Affairs, Boulder. Details here. http://bit.ly/Z5kjfJ

--”The Prague Nuclear Risk Reduction Agenda: Next Steps Forward in Obama's Second Term” Speakers include Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, Lt. Gen. Frank Klotz, Amb. Steve Pifer, Amb. James Goodby and Daryl Kimball. Thurs. April 11 from 8:45-10:30am at the National press Club. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/10PyRgq

--”North Korea: Is Regime Change the Answer?” Roundtable discussion with Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. April 11, from 10:00-11:00 at IISS in Washington. Details here. http://bit.ly/ZDKx4D

--”Asia on Edge: War and Nuclear Security.” Panel with Gordon Adams, Joe Cirincione,and Merle Lefkoff . April 11 from noon-1:20 at the Conference on World Affairs, Boulder. Details here. http://bit.ly/XAGig9

--”Pakistan: The Most Dangerous Country in the World.” Panel with Joe Cirincione, Philip James Walker, and Isaiah Wilson III. April 12 from 3:30-4:50 at the Conference on World Affairs, Boulder. Details here. http://bit.ly/151dxf0

--”Unhappy Endings: Apocalypse Now!.” Panel with Chip Berlet, Joe Cirincione, Howard Schultz, and Isaiah Wilson III. April 13 from 10:30-11:50 at the Conference on World Affairs, Boulder. Details here. http://bit.ly/151dwb7

--"The Strength of Dialogue: In Honor of JFK's Commencement Address (1963-2013)," Sergei Khrushchev, Brown University; former Rep. James Symington (MO); John Beyrle, former Ambassador to Russia; Vladimir Pechatnov, MGIMO University, Moscow; and Allen Pietrobon, American University. April 13 2:00-6:00 p.m. @ American University. Details here. http://goo.gl/dyBeR

--”The Future of the U.S. Nuclear Deterrent.” Amb. Linton Brooks. April 15 12:30-1:30 p.m. @ American Security Project. Details here. http://goo.gl/fnZc6

Dessert:

iVerify - Technological advancements are making it feasible to crowdsource verification, using “Public Technical Means,” write Christopher Stubbs and Sidney Drell in Foreign Policy. The authors say that, as consumer electronics develop new capabilities - accelerometers, GPS receivers, humidity and air pressure gages, etc. - one can foresee using this public data to help monitor treaties.

--Far fetched? The authors note Stanford has a Quake-Catcher Network for collecting data from accelerometers in smartphones and using it to assess seismic events. “This effort has the potential to contribute directly to the verification of the test ban treaty. In fact, we have independently confirmed that the accelerometer in the iPhone 4 should allow 95 percent confidence in detecting an underground nuclear test with a yield of 1 kiloton from 150 kilometers away.” Full article here. http://atfp.co/12I62sM