Diplomacy, Not Just Deterrence, Needed with North Korea

On the radar: Political rebalancing; Problems in the P5+1 position; Future talks with Iran; Assessing DPRK strategy; and Photos from no man’s land.

April 9, 2013 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Alyssa Demus

Rebalancing - In response to North Korea’s escalating rhetoric, the U.S. has moved to reassure South Korea and Japan by strengthening deterrence. Yet “the very steps that each side in Korea takes to bolster deterrence increase the risk of deadly clashes,” writes Leon Sigal in The National Interest.

--The best way to reduce the risk of clashes with North Korea “is a peace process in Korea in parallel with renewed negotiations to rein in the North’s nuclear and missile programs...Washington needs to accompany it with a political and diplomatic rebalancing toward China, and encourage its allies to do the same,” writes Sigal.

--”Sustained diplomacy and political rebalancing may not succeed, but unlike more stringent sanctions, more muscular deterrence, diplomatic disengagement and military rebalancing, they just might work.” http://bit.ly/YIdTU4

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Looking forward - Despite the lackluster results of recent nuclear talks between world powers and Iran, P5+1 states say that there is enough common ground for negotiations to continue. “There is enough substance for these negotiations to continue...I would not expect a breakdown,” said a senior Western diplomat on Monday.

--Catherine Ashton, the EU’s foreign policy chief, is set to “discuss plans for further engagement with Iran’s” lead negotiator Saeed Jalili “in the coming days,” reports Justyna Pawlak at Reuters. http://goo.gl/Eo9zf

Book - “Missile Defense: Confrontation and Cooperation,” edited by Alexei Arbatov and Vladimir Dvorkin. Carnegie Endowment, April 2013. (pdf) http://bit.ly/17ooir7

Problematic approach - “The United States and its P5+1 partners do seem to be persisting in some major errors in how they are approaching the nuclear negotiations with Iran,” writes Paul Pillar in The National Interest. Included problems: the P5+1 is not making full use of sanctions as leverage in negotiations, as they could be offering greater sanctions relief in return for greater Iranian restraint. Also, Iran lacks confidence that The West actually wants an agreement.

--Recommendation: The P5+1 should reformulate their stance by offering a balanced trade of sanctions relief for greater restrictions on Iran’s nuclear program, while offering a statement of principles on what a final agreement with Iran should look like. Full article here. http://bit.ly/151jmJl

Tweet - @CNNI: Japan deploys Patriot missile defense systems around Tokyo ahead of possible N.Korea missile launch. on.cnn.com/16KIxfD

Laser boat - “The Navy is going to sea for the first time with a laser attack weapon that has been shown in tests to disable patrol boats and blind or destroy surveillance drones. A prototype shipboard laser will be deployed on a converted amphibious transport and docking ship in the Persian Gulf,” reports Thom Shanker of The New York Times. http://nyti.ms/1481Tj8

Gaming it - As tensions mount on the Korean Peninsula much of the focus has been on North Korea’s nuclear and missile capabilities. John Arquilla suggests “that we stop focusing on the illusory threat of North Korean long-range missiles attacking the United States...There are far more pressing matters to consider at the unruly lower end of the spectrum of conflict. And far more serious concerns at the higher end.” Full article at Foreign Policy. http://goo.gl/aA6lW

Tweet - @AP: North Korea urges foreigners in South Korea to evacuate amid rising tension. apne.ws/16Lb8kJ

Events:

--Carnegie International Nuclear Policy Conference. April 8-9 @ Reagan Building, 1300 Pennsylvania Ave., NW. Details here. http://owl.li/jKm30

--”North Korea: Is Regime Change the Answer?” Roundtable discussion with Mark Fitzpatrick of the International Institute for Strategic Studies. April 11, form 10:00-11:00 at IISS in Washington. Details here. http://bit.ly/ZDKx4D

--”From Arab Spring to Nuclear Winter” Panel discussion with Joe Cirincione, Heather Hurlburt, Sylvester Bongani Mphosa, and G. Willow Wilson. April 10 from 9:50-11:05. at the Conference on World Affairs, Boulder. Details here. http://bit.ly/Z5kjfJ

--”Kim, Kim, Kim: Dissolving North Korea’s Dynasty of Despair.” Panel with Joe Cirincione, Ted Nace, Jay Parker, and Alice Rivlin. April 10 from 1:30-2:50 at the Conference on World Affairs, Boulder. Details here. http://bit.ly/Z5kjfJ

--”The Prague Nuclear Risk Reduction Agenda: Next Steps Forward in Obama's Second Term” Speakers include Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, Lt. Gen. Frank Klotz, Amb. Steve Pifer, Amb. James Goodby and Daryl Kimball. Thurs. April 11 from 8:45-10:30am at the National press Club. Details and RSVP here. http://bit.ly/10PyRgq

--”Asia on Edge: War and Nuclear Security.” Panel with Gordon Adams, Joe Cirincione,and Merle Lefkoff . April 11 from noon-1:20 at the Conference on World Affairs, Boulder. Details here. http://bit.ly/XAGig9

--”Pakistan: The Most Dangerous Country in the World.” Panel with Joe Cirincione, Philip James Walker, and Isaiah Wilson III. April 12 from 3:30-4:50 at the Conference on World Affairs, Boulder. Details here. http://bit.ly/151dxf0

--”Unhappy Endings: Apocalypse Now!.” Panel with Chip Berlet, Joe Cirincione, Howard Schultz, and Isaiah Wilson III. April 13 from 10:30-11:50 at the Conference on World Affairs, Boulder. Details here. http://bit.ly/151dwb7

Dessert:

The mystery target - A recent North Korean propaganda video showed a map of North Korea’s strike plans for Washington DC, Oahu, San Diego and some mystery target that couldn’t be pinpointed. After some further image analysis, Jeffrey Lewis at Arms Control Wonk figured out that the mystery target is in fact Shreveport, Louisiana, home to Barksdale Air Force Base and Air Force Global Strike Command. http://bit.ly/10E3ubx

At the 38th parallel - Photographer Van Houtryve spent 10 weeks along the 154-mile border between North and South Korea, documenting the military presence on the world’s most tense border. Gallery of the photos at Foreign Policy. http://atfp.co/12CPkv4