On the radar: The Pentagon’s plan in context; Nuclear recommendations; Pressure dynamics with Iran; Zakaria, Nasr, Nader, Dobbins; EU oil embargo; China cuts imports; and Ratifying the Test Ban Treaty.

January 5, 2012 | Edited by Benjamin Loehrke and Mary Kaszynski

Pentagon strategy review - Today Defense Secretary Panetta unveils a strategy review that will guide DOD’s spending plans. Heather Hurlburt puts the review into context, noting that the expected budget cuts are relatively small. From Democracy Arsenal.http://owl.li/8jguu

--If you missed this morning’s press conference: Read President Obama’s remarks and read the new defense strategy. http://owl.li/8jhxa

--The review is unlikely to lead to big changes to nuclear strategy, although significant savings could be found by reducing the number of nuclear subs from 12 to 8 and delaying the purchase of the new bomber would save $45 billion. From the Arms Control Association. http://owl.li/8jhuc

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Scaling back the unnecessary - Real reform from the Pentagon would produce a strategy that is “more modest, more disciplined, and more focused. That will entail shedding or scaling back missions and capabilities that are unnecessary or counterproductive,” writes Bill Hartung at TPM.

--”At a time when an arsenal of thousands of nuclear weapons is increasingly irrelevant to the most urgent threats we face, we should forgo...unnecessary [nuclear] expenditures and focus instead on much more affordable -- and more effective --programs to secure or destroy loose nuclear weapons and bomb-making materials to keep them out of the hands of tyrants and terrorists.” http://owl.li/8jgwf

Under pressure - Between a struggling economy, domestic political turmoil, and international isolation, “Iran is weak and getting weaker,” writes Fareed Zakaria in the Washington Post. “Washington wants to build the pressure on Iran, in the hopes that it will force the regime into serious negotiations at some point. This strategy is understandable. But it also risks building up pressures that could take a course of their own — with explosive consequences,” he concludes. http://owl.li/8jgyw

Pressure dynamics - “The more sanctions threaten Iran’s internal stability, the more likely the ruling regime will be to pursue nuclear deterrence and to confront the West to win the time Iran needs to reach that goal,” writes Vali Nasr in Bloomberg. “Rather than discourage this aggressive Iranian position, U.S. policy is encouraging it, making a dangerous military confrontation more likely.” http://owl.li/8jgBj

Reaction to pressure - “The focus of Western policy has been on imposing pressure in order to give Iran's leaders a reason not to weaponise. Equally important, however, and far too often overlooked, is the need to take care not to give Iran a reason to weaponise - which is exactly what current policy runs the risk of doing,” writes Patrick Disney in Al Jazeerza. http://owl.li/8jgE3

Calling for more pressure - “For all its bluster, the Iranian regime is more vulnerable than at any time in its 32-year history,” write Alireza Nader and James Dobbins in The New York Times. Different from the above authors’ prescriptions, the authors recommend that the Iranian regime needs “to be persuaded that it will become more isolated, penalized and more vulnerable to internal unrest if it chooses to test and develop nuclear weapons.” http://owl.li/8jgLc

EU considers oil embargo - ”The European Union agreed in principle to enact an embargo on all purchases of Iranian oil, significantly increasing the West's financial war on Tehran at a time of heightened tensions in the Persian Gulf.” Wall Street Journal’s Jay Solomon reports. http://owl.li/8jgNd

China cutting Iranian oil imports - China, which buys about 10 percent of Iran’s crude exports, “will reduce crude imports from Iran for a second month, sources said on Thursday, as the two remain divided over payment terms for Iranian crude targeted by ever tougher international sanctions,” reports Reuters. http://owl.li/8jgQ1

New START and the CTBT - New START has made the world safer by improving nuclear transparency and stability. It’s time to build on that success by ratifying the CTBT, writes ASP’s Gen. Stephen Cheney. Ratification by the US will encourage Iran and North Korea to do the same, strengthening the US role as a world diplomatic leader. http://owl.li/8jgSz